Design of a sampling plan to detect ochratoxin A in green coffee.
The establishment of maximum limits for ochratoxin A (OTA) in coffee by importing countries requires that coffee-producing countries develop scientifically based sampling plans to assess OTA contents in lots of green coffee before coffee enters the market thus reducing consumer exposure to OTA, minimizing the number of lots rejected, and reducing financial loss for producing countries. A study was carried out to design an official sampling plan to determine OTA in green coffee produced in Brazil. Twenty-five lots of green coffee (type 7 - approximately 160 defects) were sampled according to an experimental protocol where 16 test samples were taken from each lot (total of 16 kg) resulting in a total of 800 OTA analyses. The total, sampling, sample preparation, and analytical variances were 10.75 (CV = 65.6%), 7.80 (CV = 55.8%), 2.84 (CV = 33.7%), and 0.11 (CV = 6.6%), respectively, assuming a regulatory limit of 5 microg kg(-1) OTA and using a 1 kg sample, Romer RAS mill, 25 g sub-samples, and high performance liquid chromatography. The observed OTA distribution among the 16 OTA sample results was compared to several theoretical distributions. The 2 parameter-log normal distribution was selected to model OTA test results for green coffee as it gave the best fit across all 25 lot distributions. Specific computer software was developed using the variance and distribution information to predict the probability of accepting or rejecting coffee lots at specific OTA concentrations. The acceptation probability was used to compute an operating characteristic (OC) curve specific to a sampling plan design. The OC curve was used to predict the rejection of good lots (sellers' or exporters' risk) and the acceptance of bad lots (buyers' or importers' risk).