Human error in the seventies--reviewed and projected through the eighties.
The USAF has had an impressive record of improvement in its accident experience during the past three decades. This has been reflected in markedly lower rates in accident experience, aircraft destroyed, and fatal accidents. As the historic experience line comes closer to the ultimate zero goal, improvement becomes more difficult. The trends during the 1970s suggest that a bottom, at least temporarily, was reached so that, unless additional effort is exerted, an actual increase rather than a continuing decline will occur. Experience does show that, regardless of future overall accident trends, the proportion of the accidents which result in fatalities will almost certainly increase. There is also a clear indication that, unless crewmen in ejection-seat-equipped aircraft improve their emergency perception and decision-making abilities, the proportion of successes in airborne escape may not increase but could well decline still further. Accidents will almost certainly maintain the trend of being associated with in-flight rather than takeoff or landing activities. One kind of flight mishap of particular concern remains that of USAF planes with civilian aircraft. On the basis of past experience, these kinds of accidents can continue to be anticipated. Their prevention represents a focal point of real concern. One feature of future mishaps which will become increasingly prominent will be the involvement of women crewmembers. Both a distressing and heartening feature of the review of mishaps is that even a cursory review indicates that most, if not all, are preventable by the use of well-known and well-established principles of accident prevention. Improvement in the selection, training, and use of people, and improvements in hardware, both in terms of reliability and man/machine compatibility, can all lead to increased efficiency and a continuation of the historic down trend in accident losses. This defines the direction for the eighties.