Biomedical subjects

A Hatzakis

Publications and source records attributed to A Hatzakis.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2007

Analytical and clinical sensitivity of the Procleix Ultrio HIV-1/HCV/HBV assay in samples with a low viral load.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The Procleix Ultrio human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)/hepatitis C virus (HCV)/hepatitis B virus (HBV) (Ultrio) assay simultaneously detects HIV-1 RNA, HCV RNA and HBV DNA in individual blood donations. The main objective of the study was to assess the analytical and clinical sensitivity of the multiplex and discriminatory probe assays in samples with a low viral load. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The VQC HIV RNA genotype B, HCV RNA genotype 1 and HBV DNA genotype A standard dilutions were tested in 26 repeats. The probability of detection by Ultrio was compared with previously obtained data of the Procleix Duplex HIV-1/HCV assay on the same reference panels. A selection of 121 anti-HIV-1, 138 anti-HCV and 190 HBsAg positive samples from patients receiving antiviral therapy were tested. The majority of patient samples had a viral load below the detection limit of the diagnostic nucleic acid test assays, which made them suitable to evaluate the performance of the multiplex and discriminatory assays on yield cases with a similar low viral load. RESULTS: The 95% and 50% detection end-points of the Ultrio assay along with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals are 53.7 (32.9-117.2) and 8.6 (6.2-12.1) geq/ml for HIV-1 RNA, 30.3 (19.0-62.4) and 5.2 (3.7-7.2) geq/ml for HCV RNA and 393.7 (147.9-6978) and 54.5 (22.4-143.8) geq/ml for HBV DNA. The analytical sensitivity of Ultrio expressed as a potency factor relative to previously obtained Duplex results on the same HIV-1 RNA and HCV-RNA standard dilutions was 1.09 (0.20-6.10) and 1.11 (0.21-5.89), respectively. The assay detected all 22 HIV-1 infected patients with viral load > 50 copies/ml, and 41 of 99 patients (41%) with viral load < 50 copies/ml, of which 23 (56%) were detected by the discriminatory assay. All 47 patients with HCV RNA load > 521 IU/ml and 10/91 polymerase chain reaction-negative patients with viral load < 50 IU/ml tested positive in Ultrio assay of which five were missed in the discriminatory test. The assay detected 53/55 HBV infected patients (96%) with viral load > 250 copies/ml and 108/135 patients (80%) with viral load < 250 copies/ml of which 17 (16%) were missed by the discriminatory test. CONCLUSIONS: The new Procleix Ultrio assay is as sensitive as the Procleix Duplex assay for HIV-1 and HCV detection meeting the requirements of universal guidelines. The ability of the assay to detect HBV DNA in low viral load samples could be useful for screening blood. Inevitable negative results of discriminatory probe assays caused by stochastic sample variation will reduce the chance of recognizing low viraemic blood donors detected by individual donation nucleic acid test.

Blood Donors↗

PubMed2006

Clinical significance of organ- and non-organ-specific autoantibodies on the response to anti-viral treatment of patients with chronic hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND: Development of organ- and non-organ-specific autoantibodies has been reported in hepatitis C virus patients treated with interferon-alpha plus/minus ribavirin. AIMS: To address whether prevalence and the titre of gastric parietal autoantibodies and non-organ-specific autoantibody in hepatitis C virus-treated patients were affected by therapy, and if the development of these antibodies carries any clinical significance on the response to treatment, as few studies in adults have been strictly designed to address the above hypothesis. METHODS: Samples at three time-points (baseline, end of treatment, end of follow-up) from 102 hepatitis C virus patients (39 sustained responders, 26 relapsers, 33 non-responders; four lost in follow-up) were studied for gastric parietal autoantibodies and/or non-organ-specific autoantibody by indirect immunofluorescence, commercial and in-house enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. RESULTS: Sustained virological and biochemical response was associated with antinuclear antibody absence (end of treatment or end of follow-up), decrease of smooth-muscle antibody titres during therapy and gastric parietal autoantibodies negativity at baseline. However, after multivariate analysis only antinuclear antibody positivity at the end of treatment and increase of smooth-muscle antibody titres were associated with worst treatment response, independently of known factors of worst treatment outcome. CONCLUSIONS: We were able to demonstrate a negative correlation between the efficacy of anti-viral treatment for hepatitis C virus and the presence of antinuclear antibody and smooth-muscle antibody before treatment, or their increase during therapy.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Analysing the evolutionary history of HCV: puzzle of ancient phylogenetic discordance.

Though recombination is an important evolutionary strategy in RNA viruses, only two cases of HCV recombinant strains have been reported. Our objective was to analyze the evolutionary history of the HCV genotypes aiming to obtain evidence of significant phylogenetic discordance due to either recombination or selective forces leading to convergent/divergent evolution. The data support an evolutionary preservation of the interferon-resistance related genomic region (ISDR) for the genotypes 1 and 4. On the other hand, there was no evidence that recombination has occurred in the past with the possible exception of genotype 4. Moreover, it is evidenced that genotypes 3 and 10 split more recently than genotypes 6-9 and 11. This analysis reverberates a commonly found pattern in rapidly evolving viruses, that is the strongly disturbed evolutionary history which deforms the uniform distribution of the phylogenetic relationships across the genome, and introduces a conservative inference framework for approaching this kind of data.

Evolution, Molecular↗

PubMed2006

Molecular epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Greece: temporal trends in HCV genotype-specific incidence and molecular characterization of genotype 4 isolates.

This study aimed to estimate the overall HCV genotype distribution and to reconstruct the HCV genotype-specific incidence in Greece during the recent decades. It also focused at the identification of genotype 4 subtype variability in Greek isolates. A total of 1686 chronically infected HCV patients with detectable serum HCV RNA by RT-PCR, belonging to different risk groups were studied. Amplified products from the 5'-noncoding region were typed using a commercially available assay based on the reverse hybridization principle. The HCV genotype-specific incidence was estimated using a previously described back calculation method. HCV genotype 1 was the most prevalent (46.9%) followed by genotype 3 (28.1%), 4 (13.2%), 2 (6.9%) and 5 (0.4%). A high prevalence of genotype 1 (66.3%) in haemophilia patients was recorded whereas HCV genotype 3 was found mainly among patients infected by I.V. drug use (58.2%). Data on the temporal patterns of HCV genotype-specific incidence in Greece revealed a moderate increase (1.3-1.6 times) for genotypes 1 and 4, and a decrease (1.5 times) for genotype 2 from 1970 to 1990, whereas there was a sharp (13-fold) increase for genotype 3. The molecular characterization of 41 genotype 4 HCV isolates belonging to various risk groups revealed that, subtype 4a was the most frequently detected (78%). Phylogenetic comparison of the Greek 4a isolates with all HCV-4a isolates reported worldwide so far revealed a topology which does not discriminate Greek isolates from the others. HCV-4 does not represent a recent introduction in Greece.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2005

Prevalence of resistance-associated mutations in newly diagnosed HIV-1 patients in Greece.

The prevalence of HIV-1 drug resistance mutations in naïve patients has been previously shown to differ greatly with the geographic origin. The purpose of this study was to prospectively estimate the prevalence of HIV-1 drug resistance in Greece by analyzing a representative sample of newly HIV-1 diagnosed patients, as part of the SPREAD collaborative study. Protease (PR) and partial reverse transcriptase (RT) sequences were determined from 101 newly diagnosed HIV-1 patients, in Greece, during the period September 2002--August 2003, representing one-third of the total newly diagnosed HIV-1 patients in the same time period. The prevalence of HIV-1 drug resistance was estimated according to the IAS-USA mutation table taking into account all mutations in RT and only major mutations in PR region. The overall prevalence of resistance was 9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 4.2--16.2%]. The prevalence of mutations associated with resistance to NRTIs was 5% (95% CI: 1.6--11.2%), for NNRTIs was 4% (95% CI: 1.1--9.8%), while no major resistance mutations were found in PR. No multi-class resistance was detected in the study population. The prevalence of resistant mutations in the recent seroconverters was 22%. For two individuals, there was clear evidence for transmitted resistance based on epidemiological information for a known source of HIV-1 transmission. The prevalence of the HIV-1 non-B subtypes and recombinants was 52%.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Progression of HIV infection in the post-HAART era among a cohort of HIV+ Greek haemophilia patients.

AIM: The study aims to describe the course of HIV-1 infection in the pre- and post-HAART period in a cohort of HIV+ haemophilia patients followed up for up to 21 years. METHODS: The cohort includes 158 haemophilic men with known seroconversion dates followed up prospectively for a median time of 12 and 5.7 years in the pre- (1980-96) and post-HAART period (1997-2003), respectively. RESULTS: The risk of developing AIDS was lowered by 56% in the post- as compared to the pre-HAART period. Of the 158 patients 69 developed AIDS in the pre-HAART period while of the 59 subjects still alive and AIDS free on 1/1/1997 six developed AIDS. The rate of PCP (12.0 cases per 1000 person-years) and NHL (5.4 cases per 1000 person-years), the most common causes of AIDS diagnosis in the pre-HAART era, were remarkably reduced in the post-HAART era (both rates: 2.8 cases per 1000 person-years). On the contrary, the corresponding risk for non-AIDS deaths was fourfold increased in the post-HAART period. Of the 38 non-AIDS related deaths in both periods, 13 occurred post-HAART. The predominant cause of non-AIDS mortality in both periods was end-stage liver disease (ESLD) (7 pre- and 4 post-HAART). The rate of non-AIDS related cancers was also increased during the post-HAART period. CONCLUSION: In this haemophilia cohort the risk of AIDS has substantially reduced in the post-HAART period, but the rate of non-AIDS mortality tended to increase. Among haemophilia subjects, due to the high rates of HCV/HIV coinfection, ESLD, the predominant cause of non-AIDS mortality, will become an increasingly important clinical problem.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

PubMed2005

Future trends of HCV-related cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma under the currently available treatments.

SUMMARY: The epidemic of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major public health issue. We conducted a comprehensive analysis to estimate future HCV-related morbidity and mortality, using a model which is the first to take into account currently available treatments. We reconstructed the incident infections per year in the past that progressed to chronic hepatitis C (CHC) in Greece. Then, the natural history of the disease was simulated in subcohorts of newly infected subjects in the presence or absence of treatment using yearly estimates of the number of treated patients obtained from national databases. Annual estimates of the incidence and prevalence of CHC by fibrosis stage, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and mortality were obtained up to 2030. The current proportion of naïve CHC patients receiving treatment in Greece is 1.2% per year. Treatment of 1.2-10% of naïve CHC patients per year would reduce the cumulative number of incident cirrhosis and HCC cases from 2002 to 2030 by 10.8-39.4% and 12.8-39.8%, respectively and decrease the number of prevalent cirrhosis and HCC cases in 2030 by approximately 17-48% compared with the number estimated under the assumption of no treatment. Approximately 17 cirrhosis cases or six HCC cases or 10 premature deaths would be prevented for every 100 treated patients. However, the prevalent cirrhotic/HCC cases because of HCV and HCV-related deaths would not plateau until 2030. Despite the introduction of effective treatment, HCV-related morbidity and mortality will likely increase during the next 20-30 years in Greece. Intensive primary prevention efforts coupled with increased access to the currently available treatments are necessary to control the chronic consequences of HCV epidemic.

Carcinoma, Hepatocellular↗

PubMed2004

Re-analysis of 34 full-length HIV-1 intersubtype recombinant sequences.

One of the main characteristics of the HIV-1 is its extensive genetic heterogeneity. Intersubtype recombination was first described in 1995 and since then a significant proportion of the HIV-1 isolates was found to comprise mosaic sequences. Re-analysis of 34 full-length HIV-1 intersubtype recombinants, including all "pure" HIV-1 subtypes revealed that 19 of the 34 analyzed mosaics consist of a more complex mosaic pattern than initially described. These findings indicate that the complexity of the HIV-1 recombinants is much greater than previously estimated.

Genetic Variation↗

PubMed2004

SlidingBayes: exploring recombination using a sliding window approach based on Bayesian phylogenetic inference.

We developed a software tool (SlidingBayes) for recombination analysis based on Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Sliding-Bayes provides a powerful approach for detecting potential recombination, especially between highly divergent sequences and complex HIV-1 recombinants for which simpler methods like neighbor joining (NJ) may be less powerful. SlidingBayes guides Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling performed by MrBayes in a sliding window across the alignment (Bayesian scanning). The tool can be used for nucleotide and amino acid sequences and combines all the modeling possibilities of MrBayes with the ability to plot the posterior probability support for clustering of various combinations of taxa.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2004

Phylogenetic analysis of the full-length SARS-CoV sequences: evidence for phylogenetic discordance in three genomic regions.

The origin of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus (SARS-CoV) remains unclear. Evidence based on Bayesian scanning plots and phylogenetic analysis using maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian methods indicates that SARS-CoV, for the largest part of the genome ( approximately 80%), is more closely related to Group II coronaviruses sequences, whereas in three regions in the ORF1ab gene it shows no apparent similarity to any of the previously characterized groups of coronaviruses. There is discordant phylogenetic clustering of SARS-CoV and coronaviruses sequences, throughout the genome, compatible with either ancient recombination events or altered evolutionary rates in different lineages, or a combination of both.

Evolution, Molecular↗

PubMed2004

Reconstructing and predicting the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Greece: increasing trends of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma despite the decline in incidence of HCV infection.

In this study, a comprehensive methodology for modelling the hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic is proposed to predict the future disease burden and assess whether the recent decline in the incidence of HCV may affect the future occurrence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases. Using the prevalence of HCV, the distribution of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients within the various transmission groups and their infection-onset times, it was possible to reconstruct the incident infections per year in the past that progressed to CHC in Greece. The natural history of the disease was simulated in subcohorts of newly infected subjects using transition probabilities derived either empirically between fibrosis stages 0-4 or from literature review. Annual estimates of the incidence and prevalence of CHC by fibrosis stage, HCC and mortality in Greece were obtained up to 2030. HCV incidence peaked in the late 1980s at five new infections/10,000 person-years. Under the assumption of 20-100% decline in HCV incidence after 1990, the cumulative number of incident cirrhosis and HCC cases from 2002-2030 was projected to be lower by 9.6-48.2% and 5.9-29.5%, respectively, than that estimated under the assumption of no decline. However, the prevalent cirrhotic/HCC cases and HCV-related deaths are predicted to decline in the next 30 years only under the assumption of complete elimination of new HCV infections after 1990. Despite the progress in the reduction of HCV transmission, primary prevention does not seem adequate to reverse the rise in the incidence of cirrhosis and HCC.

Carcinoma, Hepatocellular↗

PubMed2004

Updated European recommendations for the clinical use of HIV drug resistance testing.

In most European countries, HIV drug resistance testing has become a routine clinical tool. However, its practical implementation in a clinical context is demanding. The European HIV Drug Resistance Panel was established to make recommendations to clinicians and virologists on this topic and to propose quality control measures. The panel recommends resistance testing for the following indications: i) drug-naive patients with acute or recent infection; ii) therapy failure, including suboptimal treatment response, when treatment change is considered; iii) pregnant HIV-1-infected women and paediatric patients with detectable viral load when treatment initiation or change is considered; and iv) genotype source patient when post-exposure prophylaxis is considered. In addition, for drug-naive patients with chronic infection in whom treatment is to be started, the panel suggests that resistance testing should be strongly considered and recommends testing the earliest sample for drug resistance if suspicion of resistance is high or prevalence of resistance in this population exceeds 10%. The panel does not favour genotyping over phenotype, however it is anticipated that genotyping will be used more often because of its greater accessibility, lower cost and faster turnaround time. For the interpretation of resistance data, clinically validated systems should be used to the greatest extent possible. It is mandatory that laboratories performing HIV resistance tests take regular part in quality assurance programs. Similarly, it is necessary that HIV clinicians and virologists take part in continuous education and meet regularly to discuss problematic clinical cases. Indeed, resistance test results should be used in the context of all other clinically relevant information for predicting therapy response. The panel also encourages the timely collection of epidemiological information to estimate the impact of transmission of resistant HIV and the prevalence of HIV-1 non-B subtypes in the different European countries.

Anti-HIV Agents↗

PubMed2003

A randomized trial to assess the efficacy of interferon alpha in combination with ribavirin in the treatment of interferon alpha nonresponders with chronic hepatitis C: superior efficacy of high daily dosage of interferon alpha in genotype 1.

A randomized trial was conducted to assess the efficacy of daily (QD) or thrice weekly (TIW) administration of interferon-alpha (IFN) in high doses in combination with ribavirin (1.0-1.2 g/day) in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) who were nonresponders to previous IFN monotherapy. Interferon was administered as 10 MU IFN (QD or TIW) for 4 weeks, followed by 5 MU IFN (QD or TIW) for 20 weeks, and then by 3 MU IFN (QD or TIW) for 24 weeks. Sustained virological response (SVR) was evaluated in 142 patients who received at least one dose of medication. One-fourth of the patients achieved SVR, 26% of those treated with IFN QD and 25% of those treated with IFN TIW (P = 0.85). For genotype 1 patients, SVR rates were 32.4 and 15.8% for IFN QD and IFN TIW, respectively, whereas for genotype non-1 patients the corresponding SVR rates were 20.6 and 36.4%, respectively (test of homogeneity: P = 0.031). This finding was further confirmed by multivariate logistic regression analysis where a statistically significant interaction (P = 0.012) was found between treatment and HCV genotype indicating that the IFN QD regimen was superior to IFN TIW among genotype 1 patients whereas, among genotype non-1 patients, the two treatments were similar (odds ratio of SVR in IFN QD vs IFN TIW: 3.33 among genotype 1 patients, 95% CI: 1.00-11.14). In conclusion, re-treatment of patients not responding to previous IFN monotherapy with a combination of high daily dose of IFN with ribavirin may be beneficial for genotype 1 infected patients.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2003

A randomized trial to assess the efficacy of interferon-alpha daily in combination with ribavirin in the treatment of naïve patients with chronic hepatitis C.

A randomized trial was conducted to assess the efficacy of interferon-alpha (IFN) daily in combination with ribavirin in 301 naïve patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Patients were randomized to receive ribavirin 1.2 g daily (QD) for 48 weeks with either IFN 5 MU (thrice weekly) TIW for 8 weeks followed by IFN 3 MU TIW for 40 weeks (IFN TIW, n = 154) or IFN 5 MU QD for 8 weeks followed by IFN 3 MU QD for 16 weeks followed by IFN 3 MU TIW for 24 weeks (IFN QD, n = 147). Treatment discontinuation rates, because of adverse events, were similar in the two arms (14.9% in IFN TIW and 14.3% in IFN QD, P = 0.87). The proportion of patients with sustained virological response (SVR) was 27.9% for patients treated TIW and 38.8% for those treated QD (P = 0.046). According to logistic regression analysis, patients in the IFN QD arm had 1.7 times higher probability of achieving SVR, than those receiving IFN TIW (P = 0.038). Low baseline viral load (P = 0.017) and genotype non-1 (P = 0.036) were associated with higher SVR rates. Combination of IFN/ribavirin for 48 weeks is more effective when IFN is administered daily for the first 24 weeks in naïve patients with CHC.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2002

Development and assessment of a novel real-time PCR assay for quantitation of HBV DNA.

HBV DNA quantitation is used extensively for the monitoring of treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. The aim of this study was to develop a highly sensitive and reproducible real-time PCR (RTD-PCR) assay for the quantitation of HBV DNA using the LightCycler system. The performance of this assay was assessed by analyzing serial dilutions of HBV genomic DNA of known concentration and the lower limit of detection was found to be 1 DNA copy/reaction. By using serial dilutions of plasmid standard, RTD-PCR was determined to quantify HBV DNA in a 10-log10 dynamic range. RTD-PCR was found to be more sensitive than the commercially available tests such as the Quantiplex HBV DNA and the AMPLICOR HBV MONITOR assays. The median coefficient of variation of interexperimental variability was 3.2%. The HBV DNA values obtained with RTD-PCR were highly correlated with assays available commercially. These findings suggest that our RTD-PCR assay combines high sensitivity and reproducibility for HBV DNA quantitation in an incomparable high dynamic range of quantitation.

DNA, Viral↗

PubMed2002

Mutations associated with genotypic resistance to antiretroviral therapy in treatment naïve HIV-1 infected patients in Greece.

The widespread use of antiviral drugs against HIV has increased the prevalence of HIV-1 resistant strains among naïve individuals due to transmission of resistant strains. The purpose of this study was to investigate the presence of HIV-1 strains harboring resistance mutations in naïve patients in Greece. Blood samples were collected from 25 individuals. The DNA sequence of protease and partial reverse transcriptase regions (codons 41-223) were obtained by direct sequencing. Our results showed the absence of any primary resistance mutations in the study population. However, we were able to identify high prevalence of sequence polymorphisms at positions in reverse transcriptase region associated mainly with resistance to NNRTIs. Moreover, in protease region several secondary mutations were detected, suggesting the higher genetic variability of this region. The clinical significance of the polymorphisms associated with reduced susceptibility to NNRTIs remains to be clarified.

Amino Acid Sequence↗

PubMed2002

Significance of immune status, genotype and viral load in the severity of chronic hepatitis C in HIV infected haemophilia patients.

Chronic hepatitis C is associated with more severe liver disease in patients coinfected with HIV, but the pathogenic mechanism of this more aggressive course is still unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship of HCV genotype, viral load and epidemiological factors with the histological severity of chronic hepatitis in haemophilia patients with HCV/HIV coinfection, taking into consideration the immune status of the patients. Twenty-one HIV/HCV coinfected haemophilia patients, with mean age +/- SD 35.7 +/- 8.7 years, underwent transcutaneous liver biopsy 6-15 years (median 12 years) after HIV and 6-32 (median 21.5 years) years after HCV infection. Twelve patients were stage A (CDC), six stage B and three stage C. CD4 cells were < 50 microL(-1) in three patients (14.3%), 50-200 in 11(52.4%) and > 200 in 7(33.3%). Mean +/- SD log(10) HCV-RNA was 6.87 +/- 0.7 copies mL(-1) (range 5.4-7.9), and mean +/- SD log(10) HIV-RNA was 3.75 +/- 0.98 copies mL(-1) (range 2.7-6), at the time of liver biopsy. Minimal hepatitis was diagnosed in five patients (24%), mild in 10 (48%) and moderate in six (28%). Hepatitis stage 0-2 was found in seven cases (33%) and cirrhosis in six (29%). Statistical analysis showed a significant association of CD4 count < 50 with minimal hepatitis and of CD > 200 with mild and moderate hepatitis (P = 0.033). In addition, minimal hepatitis was found only in patients with stage C, while the majority of subjects with HIV stage A showed mild and moderate hepatitis (P = 0.003). Moreover genotype 1 was independently associated with advanced hepatitis stage (P = 0.04). No relationship was found between hepatitis severity, HIV or HCV RNA levels, patient's age and duration of HIV or HCV infection. Our results suggest that HCV/HIV coinfection may aggravate the course of hepatitis in the phase of immunocompetence, most probably through an immune mediated process. Genotype 1 seems to be associated with advanced liver disease.

Adult↗

PubMed2001

Comparison of smoothing techniques for CD4 data in a Markov model with states defined by CD4: an example on the estimation of the HIV incubation time distribution.

Multi-state models defined in terms of CD4 counts are useful for modelling HIV disease progression. A Markov model with six progressive CD4-based states and an absorbing state (AIDS) was used to estimate the cumulative probability of progressing to AIDS in 158 HIV-1 infected haemophiliacs with known seroconversion (SC) dates. A problem arising in such analysis is how to define CD4-based states, since this marker is subject to measurement error and short timescale variability. Four approaches were used: no smoothing, ad hoc smoothing (to move to a later/previous state two consecutive measurements to later/previous states are needed), kernel smoothing and random effects (RE) models. The estimates were compared with the Kaplan-Meier estimate based solely on data concerning time to AIDS. There was an apparent lack of agreement between the Kaplan-Meier and the "no smoothing" estimate. With the exception of the "no smoothing" method, "ad hoc", kernel and RE estimates fell within the range of the 95 per cent CIs of the Kaplan-Meier curve. Simulations demonstrated that the use of raw CD4 counts provides overestimated transition intensities. Compared to the kernel method, ad hoc is easier to implement and overcomes the problem of the choice of bandwidth. The RE approach leads to simple models, since it usually results in very few transitions to previous states, and can handle individuals with sparse data by smoothing their predictions towards the population mean. Ad hoc was the method that performed better, in terms of bias, than the other smoothing approaches.

CD4 Lymphocyte Count↗