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A Pfahlberg

Publications and source records attributed to A Pfahlberg.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Retrospective interactive rigid fusion of (18)F-FDG-PET and CT. Additional diagnostic information in melanoma patients.

AIM: This study investigates whether interactive rigid fusion of routine PET and CT data improves localization, detection and characterization of lesions compared to separate reading. For this purpose, routine PET and CT scans of patients with metastases from malignant melanoma were used. PATIENTS, METHODS: In 34 patients with histologically confirmed malignant melanoma, FDG-PET and spiral CT were performed using clinical standard protocols. For all of these patients, gold standard was available. Clinical and radiological follow-up identified 82 lesions as definitely pathological. Two board-certified nuclear medicine physicians and two board-certified radiologists analyzed PET and CT images independently from each other. For each patient up to 32 anatomical regions (24 lymph node regions, 8 extranodular regions) were systematically classified. Discordant areas were interactively analyzed in manually and rigidly registered images using a commercially available fusion tool. No side-by-side reading was performed. RESULTS: Image fusion disclosed that the evaluation of the PET images alone led to a mislocalization in 26 of 91 focally FDG enhancing lesions. The overall sensitivities of PET, CT, and image fusion were 85, 88, and 94%, respectively; the overall specificities of PET, CT and image fusion were 98, 95 and 100%, respectively. Image fusion exhibited statistically significant higher specificity values as compared with CT. Ten definitely malignant sites were false-negative in CT, but could be detected by PET. On the other hand, twelve metastases were false-negative in PET, but could be detected by CT. These included two lesions, which had a clear correlate on the PET image when the fused images were evaluated. On the whole, registration of the PET and CT images yielded additional diagnostic information in 44% of the definitely malignant lesions. CONCLUSION: Retrospective image fusion of independently obtained PET and CT data is particularly valuable in exactly localizing foci of abnormal FDG uptake and improves the detection of metastases of malignant melanoma.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

The effects of joint misclassification of exposure and disease on the attributable risk.

While there is extensive methodological literature analysing the effects of misclassification on the relative risk under various misclassification scenarios, for the attributable risk only the effects of non-differential misclassification either of exposure or disease, and the effects of non-differential independent misclassification of exposure and disease have been discussed for the 2 x 2-situation. The paper investigates the effects of non-differential correlated misclassification of exposure and disease on the attributable risk taking possible correlations of both types of misclassification into account. Furthermore, a comparison with the corresponding effects on the relative risk is drawn. We propose a matrix-based approach to describe the underlying structure of non-differential misclassification. The bias arising from non-differential misclassification in the attributable risk and relative risk is evaluated in four examples assuming under- or overreporting of exposure and disease. In each of the four examples we found scenarios where pronounced differences in degree and, more importantly, in direction of bias occurred. Our results clearly demonstrate the danger lying in the stereotype transfer of findings regarding misclassification effects on the relative risk to other epidemiologic risk measures and underline the necessity of specific analyses of the effects of misclassification on the attributable risk.

Bias↗
PubMed2005

Contact allergy to neomycin sulfate: results of a multifactorial analysis.

PURPOSE: To perform a comprehensive, multifactorial analysis of potential risk factors (demographic and clinical) for contact allergy to neomycin sulfate, a common adverse reaction resulting from the topical use of this drug; especially in some subgroups of the population. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of allergy test data of the Information Network of Departments of Dermatology (IVDK, www.ivdk.org) between 1998 and 2003, including all patients patch tested with a standard screening series because of suspected allergic contact dermatitis (ACD). As one outcome, a positive (allergic) test reaction to neomycin sulfate was considered. An alternative outcome included only those patients with a positive test to neomycin sulfate and a final diagnosis of ACD. The association between outcome and potential risk factors was analyzed with Poisson regression analysis, deriving prevalence ratios (PR) as risk estimates. RESULTS: Of the 47,559 patients tested, 2.5% had positive reactions to neomycin sulfate, while in 1.1% ACD was additionally diagnosed. The results of the multifactorial analysis indicated that the risk of both outcomes decreased slightly during the period covered; was higher among patients with leg dermatitis; varied significantly with age and increased progressively with the number of additional positive reactions to other standard series allergens. Cross-reactivity to other, selectively tested, aminoglycoside antibiotics was substantial (kappa = 0.67; 95%CI: 0.63-0.71) for framycetin sulfate, to low (kappa = 0.33; 95%CI: 0.27-0.37) for gentamicin sulfate. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of contact sensitization to neomycin sulfate was noteworthy among patients patch tested in the IVDK centers. Supplementing clinical epidemiology, neomycin contact allergy has been estimated to be relatively common even on the level of the unselected population (prevalence approx. 1%). Hence, the topical use of neomycin sulfate by patients should be carefully monitored, considering its potential to induce ACD, with emphasis on subgroups at risk.

Administration, Topical↗
PubMed2005

Prior immunisation of patients with malignant melanoma with vaccinia or BCG is associated with better survival. An European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer cohort study on 542 patients.

There is increasing evidence that infections and vaccinations play an important role in the normal maturation of the immune system. It was therefore of interest to determine whether these immune events also affect the prognosis of melanoma patients. A cohort study of 542 melanoma patients in six European countries and Israel was conducted. Patients were followed up for a mean of 5 years and overall survival was recorded. Biometric evaluations included Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival over time and Hazard Ratios (HRs), taking into account all known prognostic factors. During the follow-up between 1993 and 2002, 182 of the 542 patients (34%) died. Survival curves, related to Breslow's thickness as the most important prognostic marker, were in accordance with those observed in previous studies where the cause of death was known to be due to disseminated melanoma. In a separate analysis of patients, vaccinated with vaccinia or Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG), HRs and the corresponding 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) were 0.52 (0.34-0.79) and 0.69 (0.49-0.98), respectively. Joint analyses yielded HRs (and 95% CIs) of 0.55 (0.34-0.89) for patients vaccinated with vaccinia, 0.75 (0.30-1.86) with BCG, and 0.41 (0.25-0.69) with both vaccines. In contrast, infectious diseases occurring before the excision of the tumour had little, or, at the most, a minor influence on the outcome of the melanoma patients. These data reveal, for the first time, that vaccination with vaccinia in early life significantly prolongs the survival of patients with a malignant tumour after initial surgical management. BCG vaccination seems to have a similar, although weaker, effect. The underlying immune mechanisms involved remain to be determined.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

A multifactorial analysis of concurrent patch-test reactions to nickel, cobalt, and chromate.

BACKGROUND: Previous research indicates that positive patch tests to nickel (II) sulphate, cobalt (II) chloride and potassium dichromate commonly occur together. METHODS: To further examine the relationship between nickel, cobalt, chromate, and the factors that may potentially be related to concurrent sensitizations to two or all three metal allergens, data from the Information Network of Dermatology Departments have been investigated. RESULTS: Women had a higher conditional odds of concurrent nickel-cobalt (OR = 6.80; 95% CI: 5.65-8.19) and nickel-chromate (OR = 2.13; 95% CI: 1.67-2.72) reactions than men. Construction workers had a significantly higher odds of cobalt-chromate reactions (OR = 13.89; 95% CI: 10.36-18.64), while the odds of isolated cobalt allergy was only 0.92 (95% CI: 0.48-1.74). Patients with underlying atopic eczema/dermatitis syndrome had a 40-90% higher chance of any positive outcome, which involved chromate. Polysensitization, defined as the number of positive reactions to standard series substances other than nickel, cobalt, and chromate, was also significantly associated with the concurrent reactions; moreover, steady and significant effect gradients were noted. CONCLUSIONS: This research confirms the occupational nature of cobalt-chromate concurrent reactions, in particular, in construction workers. Polysensitization, which is considered to represent susceptibility to delayed-hypersensitivity in general, is also associated with the concurrent reactions to the metals. Hence, not only coupled exposure, but also individual susceptibility may be responsible for concurrent reactions to metals in man.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

Attenuation correction of SPECT images based on separately performed CT: Effect on the measurement of regional uptake values.

AIM: A new software approach uses separately acquired CT images for attenuation correction after retrospective fusion with the SPECT data. This study evaluates the effect of this CT-based attenuation correction on indium-111-pentetreotide-SPECT images. METHODS: Indium-111-pentetreotide-SPECT imaging using a dual-head gamma camera e.cam (Siemens Medical Solutions, Erlangen, Germany) as well as separate spiral computed tomography (CT) was performed in 13 patients. After fusion of SPECT and CT data, the bilinear attenuation coefficients were calculated for each pixel in the CT image volume using their Hounsfield unit values and attenuation-corrected images were reconstructed iteratively (OSEM 2D). Regions of interest (ROIs) were drawn on 24 suspicious foci and background, and target to background ratios were calculated for corrected (TBAC) and uncorrected (TBNAC) images. The shortest distance from the centre of the lesion to the surface of the body (DS) was measured on the corresponding CT slice. Furthermore, ROIs were drawn over the rim and the centre of the liver. Ratios of hepatic count rates for corrected (LRAC) and uncorrected (LRNAC) images were also compared. RESULTS: In lesions located more centrally, TBAC was up to 52% higher, whereas in peripherally located lesions, TBAC was up to 63% lower than TBNAC. The TBAC/TBNAC quotient was linearly correlated with DS. In the liver, attenuation correction resulted in a 35% increase of LRAC compared with LRNAC. CONCLUSIONS: Attenuation correction of SPECT images performed by separately acquired CT data is quick and simple. It improves the contrast between target and background for lesions located more centrally in the body and improves homogeneity of the visualisation of tracer uptake in the liver.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

[Anatomical accuracy of lesion localization. Retrospective interactive rigid image registration between 18F-FDG-PET and X-ray CT].

UNLABELLED: The aim of this study was to evaluate the anatomical accuracy and reproducibility of retrospective interactive rigid image registration (RIR) between routinely archived X-ray computer tomography (CT) and positron emission tomography performed with 18F-deoxyglucose (FDG-PET) in oncological patients. METHODS: Two observers registered PET and CT data obtained in 37 patients using a commercially available image fusion tool. RIR was performed separately for the thorax and the abdomen using physiological FDG uptake in several organs as a reference. One observer performed the procedure twice (O1a and O1b), another person once (O2). For 94 malignant lesions, clearly visible in CT and PET, the signed and absolute distances between their representation on PET and CT were measured in X-, Y-, and Z-direction with reference to a coordinate system centered in the CT representation of each lesion (X-, Y-, Z-distances). RESULTS: The mean differences of the signed and absolute distances between O1a, O1b, and O2 did not exceed 3 mm in any dimension. The absolute X-, Y-, and Z-distances ranged between 0.57 +/- 0.58 cm for O1a (X-direction) and 1.12 +/- 1.28 cm for O2 (Z-direction). When averaging the absolute distances measured by O1a, O1b, and O2, the percentage of lesions misregistered by less than 1.5 cm was 91% for the X-, 88% for the Y-, and 77% for the Z-direction. The larger error of fusion determined for the remaining lesions was caused by non-rigid body transformations due to differences in breathing, arm position, or bowel movements between the two examinations. Mixed effects analysis of the signed and absolute X-, Y-, and Z-distances disclosed a significantly greater misalignment in the thorax than in the abdomen as well as axially than transaxially. CONCLUSION: The anatomical inaccuracy of RIR can be expected to be <1.5 cm for the majority of neoplastic foci. Errors of alignment are bigger in the thorax and in Z-direction, due to non-rigid body transformations caused, e.g., by breathing.

Fluorodeoxyglucose F18↗
PubMed2004

Monitoring of nevus density in children as a method to detect shifts in melanoma risk in the population.

BACKGROUND: Nevus density in children, a well-known risk factor for malignant melanoma, depends both on constitutional factors and on previous ultraviolet (UV) exposure. Secular trends of childhood UV exposure could thus be indirectly monitored by repeated standardized surveys assessing nevus density in children, such as the "childhood monitoring of nevus density (CMONDE-Study)". METHODS: Two complete surveys comprising all children at the time of school enrolment were performed in the city and county of Göttingen, Germany, during the years 1999 and 2000. A total of 4252 children with a median age of 6.25 years were examined as part of the mandatory school enrolment health assessment, and complete data were available for 3881 children. RESULTS: Median nevus density was 5.8/m(2) in the entire study group. The subgroup-specific median increased from "Fitzpatrick skin type" IV to II, but the density was not increased for the type I subgroup. Similarly, nevus density rose with increasing lightness of hair color, but was very low in red-haired individuals. While the number of freckles was also strongly associated with nevus density, the association between iris color and skin reflectance, respectively, was weak. The duration of the additional examination for CMONDE was on average 3-5 min per child. CONCLUSION: We regard CMONDE as a highly feasible surveillance instrument, which should be implemented as an important addition to regular regional or national health reporting.

Child↗
PubMed2004

Inter-relation between variables determining constitutional UV sensitivity in Caucasian children.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Sensitivity to ultraviolet (UV) light is associated with phenotypic variables like iris or hair colour or freckling, which are all strongly inter-related. We assessed the pattern of association among these factors to construct a summary measure reflecting constitutional UV sensitivity in a simple one-dimensional score with sufficient discriminating power. METHODS: Information on iris and hair colour (3 and 4 categories, respectively), freckling (none vs. any) and the reaction to mid-day summer sunlight as an outcome (dichotomized into 'burn' and 'tan') was collected in a cross-sectional study among children at school enrollment in 1999 and 2000 in Göttingen, Germany (n=3765 with complete data). Chi-squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID) analysis and log-linear modelling was used to assess the pattern of mutual inter-relations. RESULTS: Hair colour turned out to be the factor most strongly associated with UV sensitivity. In case of blonde or brown hair (the most common phenotypes in our sample), the consideration of freckling further refined the classification system, whereas iris colour did not contribute additional information. The results of the CHAID and log-linear analyses suggest a simple five-point score capturing constitutional UV sensitivity. The discriminating power of this score was high in our sample, with the proportion of persons who burned ranging from 7.7 (lowest category) to 73% (highest category). CONCLUSION: The new scoring system summarized efficiently relevant information on individual constitutional UV sensitivity in our sample. Its further validation in independent studies comprising Caucasian children or adults is necessary to assess objectively its properties for future applications.

Child↗
PubMed2003

Impact of vaccinations and infectious diseases on the risk of melanoma--evaluation of an EORTC case-control study.

A significant correlation between a reduced risk of melanoma and BCG and vaccinia vaccination in early childhood or infectious diseases later in life has already been reported from the FEBrile Infections and Melanoma (FEBIM) multicentre case-control study. This correlation is further evaluated in this study based on 603 incident cases of malignant melanoma and 627 population controls in six European countries and Israel by means of a joint analysis of the influence of vaccinations and infectious diseases. In addition, the previously unconsidered impact of influenza vaccinations is evaluated for the whole study population. The strong effects of the frequently given BCG and vaccinia vaccinations in early childhood, as well as of uncommon previous severe infectious diseases, were apparently not cumulative. With the Odds Ratio (OR) being set at 1 in the absence of vaccinations and infectious diseases, the OR dropped to 0.37 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.10-1.42) when subjects had experienced one or more severe infectious diseases, associated with a fever of > 38.5 degrees C, and had not been vaccinated with BCG or vaccinia. The OR was 0.29 (CI: 0.15-0.57) in those who had had a severe infectious disease and were vaccinated with either BCG or vaccinia and 0.33 (CI: 0.17-0.65) for those with 1 or more severe infectious diseases and who had received both vaccinations. We conclude that both vaccinations as well as previous episodes of having a severe infectious disease induced the same protective mechanism with regards to the risk of melanoma. Because of a 'masking effect' by the vaccinia vaccination, the protective effect of the BCG vaccination and of certain infectious diseases against cancer has remained undetected. The vaccinations contributed more to the protection of the population than a previous episode of having an infectious disease. In view of the termination of vaccinations with vaccinia in all countries and of BCG in many of them, these findings call for a re-evaluation of vaccination strategies.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Association between infections and signs and symptoms of 'atopic' hypersensitivity--results of a cross-sectional survey among first-year university students in Germany and Spain.

BACKGROUND: This study assessed the hypothesis that a decreased exposure to childhood infectious diseases is associated with signs and symptoms of 'atopic' hypersensitivity diseases. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was performed among 1368 Spanish and German first-year university students between 1997 and 1999, including self-administered questionnaire data and serological tests. RESULTS: No association between the disease outcomes and hepatitis A, Helicobacter pylori infection and herpes simplex infection was observed in logistic regression analyses, adjusting for potential confounders (centre, sex, smoking, parental education). In contrast, vaccination against hepatitis B was associated with a decreased risk for the outcomes allergic rhinitis (OR 0.63, 95% CI: 0.42-0.95) and total serum IgE above 100 U/ml (OR 0.56, 95% CI: 0.39-0.81). Conversely, seropositivity to HBc antigen was significantly associated with high total serum IgE (OR 2.04, 95% CI: 1.34-3.06). CONCLUSIONS: Our study partly confirmed and partly contradicted previous evidence and hypotheses, respectively, concerning the role of the infections considered. The observation of a decreased risk in persons vaccinated against hepatitis B warrants further, prospective investigation.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Risk factors for contact allergy to nickel - results of a multifactorial analysis.

To quantify the independent impact of potential risk factors for nickel contact allergy (NCA), a multifactorial Poisson regression analysis of standardized anamnestic and patch test data (with nickel sulfate, 5% in petrolatum) was performed, comprising 74 940 patients assessed in the 33 German and Austrian contact dermatitis units of the Information Network of Departments of Dermatology (IVDK) between 1992 and 2000. NCA was observed in 15.5% patients. Female sex was the strongest risk factor (prevalence ratio 3.74, 95% CI: 3.51-3.98). Risk increased monotonically and significantly with decreasing age. Atopic dermatitis was not a risk factor. The year of patch test had no influence on NCA risk. Significant variation of risk between occupations was observed. In conclusion, our multifactorial analysis was able to quantify the impact of established risk factors and additionally address other, e.g. occupational, factors yet unidentified.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Predialing the number of cinegraphic frames enables an effective patient dose due to coronary angiography of 0.8 mSv.

PURPOSE: To investigate the effect of a new device for predialing the number of cinegraphic frames before each coronary angiogaphy, with the objective of reducing the patient dose area product (DAP) from coronary angiography, which typically requires 1000 to 2350 cinegraphic frames. That DAP is high and stated to be between 15.6 to 106.3 Gy x cm (2). Applying the accepted DAP-to-ED conversion factors, for the thoracic region of approximately 0.20 mSv/Gy x cm (2), this corresponds to a mean effective dose (ED) in the range of 3.1 to 21.3 mSv. MATERIAL AND METHODS: For patients undergoing elective coronary angiography, we compared various parameters of radiation exposure obtained with judicious radiation reducing standard techniques (n = 106) and with an additional new rotary switch for predialing the number of cinegraphic frames (n = 106). RESULTS: The patient radiation dose was significantly lower with the new device, with the mean DAP reduced to 5.5 from 9.1 Gy x cm (2). The corresponding reducation of the mean DAP for left ventriculography and coronary angiography was 1.3 from 1.7, and 4.2 from 7.4 Gy x cm (2), respectively. The number of cinegraphic frames was 98 vs. 184, whereas the number of cinegraphic runs and the fluoroscopy time were comparable. CONCLUSION: Predialing the cinegraphic frame number before each cinegraphic run enables a reduction of the patients effective dose from coronary angiography to 0.8 mSv, i. e. to 57 % of the baseline value and far below typically reported values.

Aged↗
PubMed2003

Short communication: time of day influences patient radiation exposure from percutaneous cardiac interventions.

The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of time of day on patient radiation exposure due to cardiac interventions. The elective interventional workload of one experienced cardiologist documented over the course of 4 months amounted to 325 diagnostic catheterizations and 145 percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). All radiation parameters documented during diagnostic coronary angiography remained constant throughout the entire day. In contrast, for PCI measurements made from 7:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m., our study revealed a mean overall dose-area product (DAP) of 11.8+/-6.8 Gy cm(2) (n=115). These radiation exposure levels increased significantly later in the afternoon (n=30) by 28% to a level of 15.0+/-11.1 Gy cm(2) (p<0.045). Cinegraphic DAP increased from 3.7+/-2.7 Gy cm(2) to 5.0+/-3.2 Gy cm(2) (p<0.033). The number of cinegraphic runs and frames rose from 7.9+/-2.9 to 9.1+/-3.1 (p<0.025), and from 136+/-63 to 164+/-70 (p<0.014), respectively. The following conclusion is warranted by our data and should now be confirmed in a wider multicentre study: radiation protection of the patients could be influenced by the fatigue of the cardiologist conducting the procedure. To enhance patient radiation safety, elective percutaneous angioplasty should be scheduled for the first 6 h of the interventionalist's occupational workload. Diagnostic interventions may be safely scheduled later.

Angioplasty, Balloon, Coronary↗
PubMed2002

Sunscreen use and melanoma: a case of evidence-based prevention?

BACKGROUND: A preventive effect of sunscreens on melanoma development is still subject of intense discussion. The practical consequences for changes in public health campaigns are neglected in this debate. METHODS: An extensive literature search for studies on the association between sunscreen use and melanoma occurrence was performed. The principles of evidence-based medicine (EBM) are applied to the issue to derive at recommendations for an evidence-based prevention of melanoma. RESULTS: We identified 17 case-control studies providing risk estimates for the relationship under study. These risk estimates are too heterogeneous to allow a reasonable conclusion by summarizing the evidence. The application of the EBM approach yields therefore an inconclusive result: the melanoma protective potential of sunscreens cannot be proven using the existing evidence. The information necessary to fully assess the effect of sunscreen use on melanoma development is not currently available. CONCLUSION: Based on the current evidence the focus of recommendations for melanoma prevention in public awareness campaigns has to be changed. It should be much more emphasized to minimize exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation during peak hours, wear protective clothing, hats and UV-opaque sunglasses, seek shade and protect infants and children against too much UV radiation exposure at all than to use sunscreens.

Evidence-Based Medicine↗
PubMed2002

[Monitoring of naevus density--an approximate marker of previous UV exposure--in children at school enrollment as a method to detect shifts in melanoma risk in the population].

OBJECTIVE: Naevus density in children depends both on constitutional factors (see below) and on previous (solar) UV exposure, which is a well-known risk factor for malignant melanoma. Secular trends of childhood UV exposure - e. g., due to intervention programmes - can be monitored by repeated, standardised cross-sectional studies assessing naevus density in children. METHODS: The 'CMONDE-Study (childhood monitoring of naevus density)' appears as a suitable instrument, introduced into the process of school enrollment for children of the years 1999 and 2000 in Göttingen. RESULTS: Analyses are based on 3883 children. Median age was 6.25 years, the proportion of girls 47 %. Median naevus density was 5.8/m(2), with an increase of density from 'Fitzpatrick skin type' IV to II, but marked decrease in type I. Similarly, naevus density increased with increasing lightness of hair colour, but was very low in red-haired individuals. While the number of freckles was also strongly associated with naevus density, the association between iris colour and skin darkness, respectively, was weak. CONCLUSION: To meet the objective of continual monitoring, further comparative cross-sectional studies are needed.

Child↗
PubMed2002

Definition of risk factors for death, end stage renal disease, and thromboembolic events in a monocentric cohort of 338 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

BACKGROUND: The survival rate in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) has improved dramatically during the past four decades to 96.6% (five year) in the Erlangen cohort, but it is nearly three times as high as in an age and sex matched control population. Reasons for death are mainly cardiovascular diseases (37%) and infections (29%). OBJECTIVE: To find risk factors existing at disease onset for a severe outcome in the Erlangen cohort. PATIENTS AND METHODS: By using a database of 338 patients with SLE from a single centre, documented at least one to 15 years and including Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology (SLICC/ACR) damage score data and index (SDI) and an activity score (European Consensus Lupus Activity Measurement (ECLAM)), a retrospective search was made for risk factors for a severe outcome like death, end stage renal disease (ESRD), and thromboembolic events (TE) in SLE. For this purpose, multivariable Cox regression models were analysed using the statistical package SPSS 10.0 for Windows. RESULTS: The following were defined as risk factors for death at disease onset: male sex (p<0.001, relative risk (RR)=3.5), age >40 at disease onset (p<0.0001, RR=19.9), nephritis (p<0.05, RR=1.6), a reduction of creatinine clearance (p<0.001, RR=1.8), heart disease (p=0.05, RR=1.5), and central nervous system (CNS) disease (p=0.06, RR=1.6). An increase in the SDI of two or more points from the first to the third year of disease was the worst prognostic factor (p<0.0001, RR=7.7). The existence of Ro or nRNP antibodies, or both, was protective (p<0.05, RR =0.1). A low C3 (p<0.01 RR=3.0) and splenomegaly (p<0.01 RR=2.7) at disease onset turned out to be risk factors for ESRD besides a nephritis. In patients with hypertension (p<0.05) and/or high titres of dsDNA antibodies (>70 U/l) (p<0.01) and/or a mean ECLAM score of 4 (p<0.01) in the course of disease, a prevalence of ESRD was recorded in 9% (p<0.05) and 10% (p<0.01), and 8% (p<0.01) v 4% in the whole group. Analysis of risk factors at disease onset for TE identified positive lupus anticoagulant (p=0.17, RR=1.6), cryoglobulins (p<0.05, RR=1.8), and nephritis (p=0.05, RR=1.4), in addition to an age >40 at disease onset. CONCLUSIONS: A subgroup of patients in the Erlangen cohort with a typical clinical and serological phenotype at disease onset that is at high risk for a worse outcome was identified. Identification of these white patients at risk at disease onset will enable treatment to be intensified and thereby possibly prevent or better control late stage manifestations.

Adult↗