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Biomedical subjects

A S Elstein

Publications and source records attributed to A S Elstein.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1987

Computer modeling of clinical judgment.

Four main developments leading to computer modeling of clinical judgment are described in this paper. These include information processing psychology, clinical vs. statistical prediction studies, behavioral decision theory, and Bayesian decision analysis approaches. One clear catalyst in these developments has been the computer, which has been used as an information management tool rather than a data-processing device. Future directions of these efforts are delineated, and problems as well as prospects of computerizing clinical judgment are described.

Artificial Intelligence↗
PubMed1986

Comparison of physicians' decisions regarding estrogen replacement therapy for menopausal women and decisions derived from a decision analytic model.

Decisions regarding estrogen replacement therapy were obtained from 50 physicians for 12 cases representing menopausal women with systematically varying levels of cancer risk, fracture risk, and symptom severity. Their decisions were compared with a decision analytic model for which each physician provided needed quantities--subjective probabilities, utilities of various outcomes, and weightings of the importance of the outcome categories. The majority of observed decisions were not to treat. By contrast, the decision analysis based on physician-provided estimates indicated that the optimal strategy was either to treat or a toss-up. Sensitivity analysis showed that these conclusions would hold over all possible utilities, over all plausible probabilities of cancer, and so long as symptom relief and fracture prevention were also considered as treatment objectives. The increased probability of early detection of cancer by regular follow-up was systematically incorporated into the decision analysis but apparently neglected in unaided clinical judgment, which follows the principle of minimizing the most important risk, regardless of its probability.

Decision Theory↗
PubMed1985

Instruction in medical decision making. A report of two surveys.

Results of two surveys (D and E) that assessed the current structure and status of instruction in medical decision making are reported. Both samples (Survey D, N = 80; Survey E, N = 92) consisted of members of the Society for Medical Decision Making. A consensus was obtained on topics considered important for teaching an introduction to clinical decision analysis to medical professionals. These topics were Bayes' theorem, decision trees, 2 X 2 tables, test sensitivity and specificity, utility, and ROC analysis. There was little agreement on course structure, level, or the preferred method for teaching decision analysis within medical settings. It was concluded that medical educators are in the process of constructing a knowledge base in decision-analytic techniques within academic medicine. It will soon be time to consider the place of more advanced topics within the continuum of medical education.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed1985

Rationale for physicians' decisions to refer obese patients.

Health care costs are an increasing burden upon American society. Referral of patients to a specialist generates additional cost. We studied the reasons behind decisions to refer patients with uncomplicated obesity to endocrinologists. Obesity may be viewed as a paradigm of diseases with relatively well-known etiology, low morbidity and mortality, chronicity, and poor outcome from standard therapy. In addition, it is a disease that is rarely curable by medical intervention, requiring behavioral change. Physicians have little direct experience in the differential diagnosis of endocrine disease, because of its low prevalence. We studied the referral decisions of 45 physicians in three medical specialties. Clinical decision making was studied using a standard set of 24 carefully structured case reports of obese women, all without obvious endocrine disease cues on history or physical. In these cases the patients' desire to be seen by endocrinologists was the major factor in the decision to refer. Referrals were not made primarily to rule out suspected endocrine disorder or because of concern for increased risk of morbidity.

Body Weight↗
PubMed1979

Development and exploratory trials of a cognitive preference inventory for medical students.

A medical cognitive preference inventory was developed and tested with two samples, one in Israel and the other in the United States. Acceptable levels of internal consistency of the whole test and of its three subtests were demonstrated. Direct and indirect evidence for the validity of the test was provided. The potential uses of the test for student selection and evaluation as well as for programme evaluation were discussed. Two forms, E and F, each consisting of eighteen items, are recommended for use with medical students. A combination of these two forms is designed as form G. Administration of one form to half of a sample and the other form to the other half, followed by pooling the individual scores, thereby obtaining results comparable to those of form G, is recommended when time to administer the inventory is limited.

Anatomy↗