Statistical methods for assessing observer variability in clinical measures.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to A Silman.
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The interval between the onset of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and the most recent pregnancy prior to RA onset in 88 women was determined. These data were compared with data obtained from a group of 144 age-matched normal women (controls) who had been assigned a "dummy date for RA onset" for the purposes of analysis. The frequency of disease onset during 3 time intervals within the period from conception to 1 year postpartum was compared with the frequency of disease onset outside this period. There was a reduction in the incidence of disease onset during pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.04-2.6) and a numerically greater increased risk of RA onset during the first 3 months postpartum (OR 5.6, 95% CI 1.8-17.6), which persisted for the subsequent 9 months (OR 2.6, 95% CI 0.8-7.9). A reduction in the incidence of disease onset was seen during all pregnancies; in contrast, the postpartum increase was greater in those with RA onset after the first pregnancy. The reduced incidence of RA onset during pregnancy, with the increased risk postpartum, mirrors the previously described suppression of disease activity during pregnancy and the subsequent flare postpartum in women with established RA. In addition, the increased postpartum risk after the first pregnancy might suggest that in susceptible women, either the hormonal changes or the exposure to the fetus's paternal HLA might represent a risk factor for disease causation.
Two methods have been proposed to quantify the extent of skin involvement in scleroderma. These are (1) a scoring system which quantifies and summates this severity rating in 17 areas of skin surface and (2) a method estimating the percentage of skin involvement using a shaded manikin. We report on a study comparing the inter-observer reliability of these two approaches using the ratings of six clinicians on 12 patients. Systematic bias between observers was noted with both methods, but inter-observer agreement, as-assessed by the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), was higher with the score method. The manikin method resulted in a greater degree of disagreement between the observers, as well as a higher amount of random error, reflecting the difficulty of defining the bounds of abnormal skin. Despite the presence of bias, the score method is the preferred method for assessing the level of skin involvement.
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence of Raynaud's phenomenon in the populations of five general practices. DESIGN: Two populations studied. A questionnaire was given to all new patients attending five general practices over four weeks, and the same questionnaire was sent by post to a random sample of adults from two of the practices. SETTING: General practices in inner London, Merseyside, and Cheshire. SUBJECTS: 1532 Patients who completed questionnaires (1119 who attended the surgeries (response rate unknown) and 413 respondents to the postal survey (response rate 69%)). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Response to questionnaire on symptoms of Raynaud's phenomenon: patients were regarded as having the disease if they had episodes of blanching of the fingers that were precipitated by cold and accompanied by sensory symptoms (pins and needles or numbness). Subsequent interview and clinical appraisal of patients with the disease according to their responses to the questionnaire. RESULTS: The prevalence of Raynaud's phenomenon was 11% (26/231) and 19% (34/182) respectively in men and women who completed the postal questionnaire and 16% (56/357) and 21% (157/762) respectively in those who completed the questionnaire when attending their general practice. Thus the overall rates were slightly higher in women, but there was no effect of age even after adjustment of the rates for practice and method of survey. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of Raynaud's phenomenon is high compared with the low number of patients who seek treatment for the disease.
OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of potentially reversible locomotor disabilities in elderly subjects and the cost effectiveness of providing aids for daily living. DESIGN: Population based randomised controlled trial of subjects aged greater than or equal to 85 living independently in an inner London borough. SETTING: 21 Electoral wards of the London Borough of Hackney. SUBJECTS: 1255 Subjects aged greater than or equal to 85 living in their own home whose names were obtained from general practitioner lists and cross checked against the electoral register, 511 of whom were subsequently found to be ineligible. Of the 744 remaining, those with disability on screening were randomised and allocated to an intervention group (36) or a control group (43), in which intervention was postponed until four weeks, after the follow up assessment. Subjects with aids supplied previously were excluded from the intervention phase. INTERVENTIONS: Provision of raised toilet seat, teapot tipper, tap turner, shoe horn and elastic laces, and double handled saucepan. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Degree of difficulty (grades 1-4) with specific tasks (getting on and off a toilet, pouring from a teapot into a cup, turning taps on and off, carrying a saucepan of standard weight, and putting on shoes) and time taken to perform them. RESULTS: 545 (73%) Of the 744 eligible subjects assessed; 428 had no disability and 118 had difficulty with at least one task. Some had had their disability recognised before the study and already had aids, representing half of those with difficulty getting on and off the toilet but 24% for putting on shoes and 13% for pouring from a teapot and turning on a tap. The mean number of difficulties was similar between the groups (intervention group 1.7, control group 1.6). Time taken to complete the tasks corresponded with the observed grade of difficulty. All aids were associated with reduced difficulty according to observer assessment (% improvement intervention group v control group: raised toilet seat, 71 v 13 teapot tipper 100 v 33; tap turner 100 v 0; saucepan 88 v 0; shoe horn 50 v 13) and time taken to complete the tasks. A cost benefit analysis of this screening-intervention programme suggested a total cost of 32 pounds per individual benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Appreciable degrees of unrecognised locomotor disability are detected on screening of very elderly people living independently. Providing aids offers a feasible and cost effective means of improving function in such people.
This study assayed serum levels of FVIII Rag as a marker of endothelial injury in patients not only with frank connective tissue disease but also in those presenting with Raynaud's phenomenon and in families of those with systemic sclerosis. Elevated levels of FVIII Rag were found in 62% of patients with systemic sclerosis (SS), 38% with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), 67% with mixed connective tissue disease (MCTD) and in 17% with primary Raynaud's phenomenon. Twenty per cent of first degree relatives of patients with SS also demonstrated high levels of FVIII Rag and certain antibodies, namely those reacting with U1RNP and the centromere. The association between elevated FVIII Rag and antibodies linked to Raynaud's and vasculitis lends support to antibody involvement in pathogenesis. High levels of FVIII Rag in family members may reflect an increased susceptibility of endothelium to injury particularly since relatives also have a higher frequency of clinical features such as Raynaud's phenomenon.
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