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AA Lopes

Publications and source records attributed to AA Lopes.

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Statistical Inference (part 1): Basic Concepts.

In the most common research situations, the investigator cannot directly assess the whole population of interest. For this reason, a sample is often studied to infer the actual population measures or parameters. Statistical inference comprises the application of methods to analyze the sample data in order to estimate the population parameters. The basic assumption in statistical inference is that each individual within the population of interest has the same probability of being included in a specific sample. When the sample is not randomly selected. the study findings can still be generalized if the sample can be considered representative of the whole population of interest. A set of statistical methods used to infer the population parameters is performed under the assumption that the sample estimates follow a bell-shaped distribution, called normal distribution. This article presents with the help of examples, the logic used in the sampling distribution theory. The concept of normal (also called gaussian) sampling distribution has an important role in statistical inference, even when the population values are not normally distributed. In fact, in the statistical inference process, the form of the distribution of the sample estimates is more important than the distribution of the individual values.

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Statistical Inference (part II): The Normal and Related Distributions.

The normal (or gaussian) is the most important probability distribution in the statistical inference process. By transforming the normal distribution to a standard distribution (z-distribution) it is possible to determine the probabilities where observations or values fall in certain intervals for variables with different means and standard deviations. Areas under the normal distribution may be represented in a table where the z is the number of standard deviations away from the mean. For example, the area under the normal distribution delimited by a z value of 1.96 to the left and 1.96 to the right of the mean corresponds to 95% of the total area of the normal distribution. Sampling distribution of estimates of population parameters may also be described by the normal distribution. It is important to note, however, that the estimation of a population mean based on the normal distribution is conditional to the assumption that the population standard deviation is a known parameter. The t distribution is used to infer about a population mean when the population standard deviation is estimated by the sample data. In statistical inference about proportions, the normal approximation of the binomial distribution may be used provided the data fit certain assumptions. Statistical methods that do not depend on the form of the distribution (distribution-free or nonparametric methods) and those based on the actual probability distribution, called exact methods, are often used in situations where the data do not comply with the assumption that the distribution of the estimate is approximately normal.

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Statistical Inference (Part 3): Statistical Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Interval Estimation.

An association between an independent and a dependent variable found in a study may have several explanations, including chance (i.e., random error). This article presents two approaches to assess the role played by chance in an association: confidence interval estimation and statistical hypothesis testing. Statistical hypothesis testing estimates the probability (i.e., the P value) of getting a difference as large or larger than the one observed in a specific study assuming the absence of association. Confidence intervals are estimates of the range of values that are expected to include the actual parameter with a certain probability, or confidence level (often 0.95 or 95%).

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