Biomedical subjects

Aaron M Ellison

Publications and source records attributed to Aaron M Ellison.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

Food-web models predict species abundances in response to habitat change.

Plant and animal population sizes inevitably change following habitat loss, but the mechanisms underlying these changes are poorly understood. We experimentally altered habitat volume and eliminated top trophic levels of the food web of invertebrates that inhabit rain-filled leaves of the carnivorous pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea. Path models that incorporated food-web structure better predicted population sizes of food-web constituents than did simple keystone species models, models that included only autecological responses to habitat volume, or models including both food-web structure and habitat volume. These results provide the first experimental confirmation that trophic structure can determine species abundances in the face of habitat loss.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Analytic webs support the synthesis of ecological data sets.

A wide variety of data sets produced by individual investigators are now synthesized to address ecological questions that span a range of spatial and temporal scales. It is important to facilitate such syntheses so that "consumers" of data sets can be confident that both input data sets and synthetic products are reliable. Necessary documentation to ensure the reliability and validation of data sets includes both familiar descriptive metadata and formal documentation of the scientific processes used (i.e., process metadata) to produce usable data sets from collections of raw data. Such documentation is complex and difficult to construct, so it is important to help "producers" create reliable data sets and to facilitate their creation of required metadata. We describe a formal representation, an "analytic web," that aids both producers and consumers of data sets by providing complete and precise definitions of scientific processes used to process raw and derived data sets. The formalisms used to define analytic webs are adaptations of those used in software engineering, and they provide a novel and effective support system for both the synthesis and the validation of ecological data sets. We illustrate the utility of an analytic web as an aid to producing synthetic data sets through a worked example: the synthesis of long-term measurements of whole-ecosystem carbon exchange. Analytic webs are also useful validation aids for consumers because they support the concurrent construction of a complete, Internet-accessible audit trail of the analytic processes used in the synthesis of the data sets. Finally we describe our early efforts to evaluate these ideas through the use of a prototype software tool, SciWalker. We indicate how this tool has been used to create analytic webs tailored to specific data-set synthesis and validation activities, and suggest extensions to it that will support additional forms of validation. The process metadata created by SciWalker is readily adapted for inclusion in Ecological Metadata Language (EML) files.

Data Collection↗

PubMed2006

Forecasting extinction risk with nonstationary matrix models.

Matrix population growth models are standard tools for forecasting population change and for managing rare species, but they are less useful for predicting extinction risk in the face of changing environmental conditions. Deterministic models provide point estimates of lambda, the finite rate of increase, as well as measures of matrix sensitivity and elasticity. Stationary matrix models can be used to estimate extinction risk in a variable environment, but they assume that the matrix elements are randomly sampled from a stationary (i.e., non-changing) distribution. Here we outline a method for using nonstationary matrix models to construct realistic forecasts of population fluctuation in changing environments. Our method requires three pieces of data: (1) field estimates of transition matrix elements, (2) experimental data on the demographic responses of populations to altered environmental conditions, and (3) forecasting data on environmental drivers. These three pieces of data are combined to generate a series of sequential transition matrices that emulate a pattern of long-term change in environmental drivers. Realistic estimates of population persistence and extinction risk can be derived from stochastic permutations of such a model. We illustrate the steps of this analysis with data from two populations of Sarracenia purpurea growing in northern New England. Sarracenia purpurea is a perennial carnivorous plant that is potentially at risk of local extinction because of increased nitrogen deposition. Long-term monitoring records or models of environmental change can be used to generate time series of driver variables under different scenarios of changing environments. Both manipulative and natural experiments can be used to construct a linking function that describes how matrix parameters change as a function of the environmental driver. This synthetic modeling approach provides quantitative estimates of extinction probability that have an explicit mechanistic basis.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

PubMed2002

Nitrogen availability alters the expression of carnivory in the northern pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea.

Atmospheric transport and deposition of nutrients, especially nitrogen, is a global environmental problem with well-documented consequences for ecosystem dynamics. However, monitoring nitrogen deposition is relatively expensive, monitoring stations are widely spaced, and estimates and predicted impacts of nitrogen deposition are currently derived from spatial modeling and interpolation of limited data. Ombrotrophic ("rain-fed") bogs are nutrient-poor ecosystems that are especially sensitive to increasing nutrient input, and carnivorous plants, which are characteristic of these widespread ecosystem types, may be especially sensitive indicators of N deposition. Botanical carnivory is thought to have evolved in nutrient-poor and well-lit habitats such as bogs because the marginal benefits accruing from carnivory exceed the marginal photosynthetic costs associated with the maintenance of carnivorous organs. However, the production of carnivorous organs can be a phenotypically plastic trait. The northern pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea, produces leaves specialized for prey capture and nutrient uptake (pitchers) and leaves that are more efficient at photosynthesis (phyllodia). We hypothesized that relative allocation to these two types of leaves reflects ambient nitrogen availability. We manipulated nutrient availability to plants with leaf enrichment and whole-plot fertilization experiments. Increased nitrogen, but not phosphorus, reduced production of pitchers relative to phyllodia; this result provided empirical support for the cost-benefit model of the evolution of botanical carnivory. Because this phenotypic shift in leaf production occurs in ecological time, our results suggest that S. purpurea could be a reliable and inexpensive biological indicator of nitrogen deposition rates. This suggestion is supported by field observations across a geographic gradient of nitrogen deposition.

Animals↗