Achim Dobermann | PubMed Health

PubMed2005

Cereal area and nitrogen use efficiency are drivers of future nitrogen fertilizer consumption.

At a global scale, cereal yields and fertilizer N consumption have increased in a near-linear fashion during the past 40 years and are highly correlated with one another. However, large differences exist in historical trends of N fertilizer usage and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) among regions, countries, and crops. The reasons for these differences must be understood to estimate future N fertilizer requirements. Global nitrogen needs will depend on: (i) changes in cropped cereal area and the associated yield increases required to meet increasing cereal demand from population and income growth, and (ii) changes in NUE at the farm level. Our analysis indicates that the anticipated 38% increase in global cereal demand by 2025 can be met by a 30% increase in N use on cereals, provided that the steady decline in cereal harvest area is halted and the yield response to applied N can be increased by 20%. If losses of cereal cropping area continue at the rate of the past 20 years (-0.33% per year) and NUE cannot be increased substantially, a 60% increase in global N use on cereals would be required to meet cereal demand. Interventions to increase NUE and reduce N losses to the environment must be accomplished at the farm- or field-scale through a combination of improved technologies and carefully crafted local policies that contribute to the adoption of improved N management; uniform regional or national directives are unlikey to be effective at both sustaining yield increases and improving NUE. Examples from several countries show that increases in NUE at rates of 1% per year or more can be achieved if adequate investments are made in research and extension. Failure to arrest the decrease in cereal crop area and to improve NUE in the world's most important agricultural systems will likely cause severe damage to environmental services at local, regional, and global scales due to a large increase in reactive N load in the environment.

Crops, Agricultural↗

PubMed2002

Agroecosystems, nitrogen-use efficiency, and nitrogen management.

The global challenge of meeting increased food demand and protecting environmental quality will be won or lost in cropping systems that produce maize, rice, and wheat. Achieving synchrony between N supply and crop demand without excess or deficiency is the key to optimizing trade-offs amongst yield, profit, and environmental protection in both large-scale systems in developed countries and small-scale systems in developing countries. Setting the research agenda and developing effective policies to meet this challenge requires quantitative understanding of current levels of N-use efficiency and losses in these systems, the biophysical controls on these factors, and the economic returns from adoption of improved management practices. Although advances in basic biology, ecology, and biogeochemistry can provide answers, the magnitude of the scientific challenge should not be underestimated because it becomes increasingly difficult to control the fate of N in cropping systems that must sustain yield increases on the world's limited supply of productive farm land.

Agriculture↗