Biomedical subjects

Alan Brennan

Publications and source records attributed to Alan Brennan.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

Efficient computation of partial expected value of sample information using Bayesian approximation.

We describe a novel process for transforming the efficiency of partial expected value of sample information (EVSI) computation in decision models. Traditional EVSI computation begins with Monte Carlo sampling to produce new simulated data-sets with a specified sample size. Each data-set is synthesised with prior information to give posterior distributions for model parameters, either via analytic formulae or a further Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. A further 'inner level' Monte Carlo sampling then quantifies the effect of the simulated data on the decision. This paper describes a novel form of Bayesian Laplace approximation, which can be replace both the Bayesian updating and the inner Monte Carlo sampling to compute the posterior expectation of a function. We compare the accuracy of EVSI estimates in two case study cost-effectiveness models using 1st and 2nd order versions of our approximation formula, the approximation of Tierney and Kadane, and traditional Monte Carlo. Computational efficiency gains depend on the complexity of the net benefit functions, the number of inner level Monte Carlo samples used, and the requirement or otherwise for MCMC methods to produce the posterior distributions. This methodology provides a new and valuable approach for EVSI computation in health economic decision models and potential wider benefits in many fields requiring Bayesian approximation.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed2006

A taxonomy of model structures for economic evaluation of health technologies.

Models for the economic evaluation of health technologies provide valuable information to decision makers. The choice of model structure is rarely discussed in published studies and can affect the results produced. Many papers describe good modelling practice, but few describe how to choose from the many types of available models. This paper develops a new taxonomy of model structures. The horizontal axis of the taxonomy describes assumptions about the role of expected values, randomness, the heterogeneity of entities, and the degree of non-Markovian structure. Commonly used aggregate models, including decision trees and Markov models require large population numbers, homogeneous sub-groups and linear interactions. Individual models are more flexible, but may require replications with different random numbers to estimate expected values. The vertical axis of the taxonomy describes potential interactions between the individual actors, as well as how the interactions occur through time. Models using interactions, such as system dynamics, some Markov models, and discrete event simulation are fairly uncommon in the health economics but are necessary for modelling infectious diseases and systems with constrained resources. The paper provides guidance for choosing a model, based on key requirements, including output requirements, the population size, and system complexity.

Cost-Benefit Analysis↗

PubMed2006

Assessment of clinical and economic benefits of weight management with sibutramine in general practice in Germany.

Obesity is associated with major health risks and a high economic burden impacting on health care systems. This study utilises the latest evidence from randomised clinical trials (RCTs) to explore and to assess the cost effectiveness of sibutramine in combination with diet and lifestyle advice compared to diet and lifestyle advice alone for the treatment of obese subjects without comorbidities at baseline in Germany. New evidence from recently published RCTs and post-marketing surveillance studies, including health economic data as well as quality of life (QoL) data, were used to model the long-term outcomes of weight management with sibutramine in German practice. German healthcare costs and new data from over 8,000 patients were analysed based on a recently published model. These new RCT data were used to model weight losses, proportion of responders to treatment, utilities by weight loss and variability in weight regain post-treatment. Costs and QoL benefits associated with weight loss (using SF-36 data from sibutramine trials), reduced incidence of coronary heart disease (using Framingham equations) and diabetes were used to estimate the cost per quality adjusted life year of sibutramine treatment. For 1,000 patients treated with sibutramine for 1 year, extrapolating outcomes over 4 further years, sibutramine is estimated to save 4.18 CHD events, 2.58 diabetes incident cases and give 51.5 more quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The cost-utility analysis (CUA) estimates 13,706 euro per QALY gained. Results are sensitive to changes in weight loss, rate of weight regain and discounting rate. Although the non-pharmacological weight management programme in the comparator arm yielded higher weight losses than generally observed in clinical practice, these results demonstrate that additional sibutramine treatment is a cost effective therapy for an obese population without comorbidities in Germany. The CUA results are within the range generally accepted as cost effective and should be viewed as conservative when generalizing to settings offering standard non-pharmacological treatment.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

A prognostic model for functional outcome in early rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To construct a prognostic algorithm to predict 5-year functional outcome in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), based on the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ). METHODS: Data from all patients with 5-year followup (n = 985) were used from an inception cohort, the Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Study (ERAS). Possibly relevant prognostic factors considered in the initial stage of the model-building process were standard clinical, radiological, and laboratory features measured at baseline and at 1 year. Multivariate analysis was performed using logistic regression, and the predictive performance of the model was tested using measures of discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: Bootstrap resampling identified 6 variables that consistently predicted severe functional outcome. Functional grade III/IV (odds ratio 6.7) and HAQ at 1 year (odds ratio 2.4) were the most important. Other variables included socioeconomic status, hemoglobin, and radiographic and disease activity scores. Estimates of the regression coefficients and performance were corrected for over-fitting. Reasonably large values for the c-index (0.82) and the Nagelkerke R(2) (0.39) indicate that the set of prognostic factors explains the variation in outcome to a degree that implies good prediction for individual patients. CONCLUSION: The algorithm identifies patients in the first year of RA who are likely to have poor function by 5 years and who could potentially benefit from aggressive drug therapy. A nomogram is produced for simple application of the model in clinical practice. While further external validation is necessary, this model could allow clinicians to target aggressive therapy earlier in a patient's disease course.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Modelling the long term cost effectiveness of clopidogrel for the secondary prevention of occlusive vascular events in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the long term cost effectiveness of clopidogrel monotherapy compared with acetylsalicylic acid (aspirin; ASA) monotherapy in patients at risk of secondary occlusive vascular events (OVEs) in the UK. DESIGN: Cost utility analysis based on clinical data from CAPRIE (a multicentre randomised controlled trial, involving 19185 patients); long-term effects were extrapolated beyond the trial period using a Markov model populated with data from UK observational studies. Health economic evaluation carried out from the perspective of the UK National Health Service. PARTICIPANTS: A representative cohort of 1000 UK patients aged 60 years (approximate mean age of the CAPRIE population), with the qualifying diagnoses of myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke and peripheral arterial disease, who are at risk of secondary OVEs (non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke or vascular death). INTERVENTIONS: Patients were assumed to receive treatment with either clopidogrel (75 mg/day) for 2 years followed by ASA (325 mg/day, average) for their remaining lifetime, or ASA alone (325 mg/day, average) for life. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incremental cost per life year gained and incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. RESULTS: In the base case, the incremental cost effectiveness of clopidogrel versus ASA in this population is estimated at 18888 pounds per life year gained and 21 489 pounds per QALY gained. Multiple deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggest the model is robust to variations in a wide range of input parameters. CONCLUSION: Two years of treatment with clopidogrel can be considered a cost effective intervention in patients at risk of secondary OVEs in the UK.

Aged↗

PubMed2005

An overview of economic evaluations for drugs used in rheumatoid arthritis : focus on tumour necrosis factor-alpha antagonists.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, progressive, inflammatory disease that affects approximately 0.5-1% of the adult population. The introduction of new disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) such as leflunomide, anakinra and the tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha antagonists (infliximab, etanercept and adalimumab) have transformed the management of RA. In particular, the last class of agents has generated substantial controversy. Costing between 16,000 US dollars and 20,000 US dollars per patient-year (2001 values), the potential greater efficacy of treatment with TNFalpha antagonists comes at much higher drug costs, making these agents natural candidates for cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs).A MEDLINE search (until 31 January 2004) identified six original CEAs evaluating TNFalpha antagonists in RA. The aim of a CEA is to facilitate the allocation of scarce health resources and to inform policy decisions. However, to enhance the reliability and relevance of these analyses to policy makers, there must be similarity between the methodologies used. Recently, the OMERACT (Outcome Measures in Rheumatoid Arthritis Clinical Trials) group produced a document to define such a reference case; the OMERACT document was used as a foundation to structure comparisons and highlight discrepancies. The methodologies employed in each analysis differed; in particular, disparate time horizons, comparators, quantities of drug and treatment sequences prohibit the comparison of cost effectiveness between studies. Outcomes also differed between the analyses. Most reported health-related quality of life (HR-QOL) in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The QALYs metric was based on preference scores that were typically derived from linear regressions using the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ). However, models also used American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria, as well as the disease activity score (DAS). Common to all studies was the lack of data from long-term randomised studies where efficacy and resource consumption in comparison with standard care has been investigated. As such, investigators combined short-term randomised control trial data with that of a long-term observational cohort, and modelled cost effectiveness over an appropriate time horizon. In addition, most analyses lacked rigorous sensitivity analysis to examine the impact of uncertainty in the parameters. Those analyses that examined time horizons of 6 months and 1 year published incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of 34,800 US dollars per ACR 70% response criteria (ACR70) weighted response (duration 6 months, 1999 values) and 96,166 US dollars (duration 1 year, 2002 values). Analyses that modelled costs and health outcomes beyond the first year reported ICER estimates ranging between 26,800 US dollars (patients' lifetime, 1998 values) and 40,308 US dollars (10 years, 2002 values). In terms of HR-QOL, the analyses reported incremental QALYs that ranged from 0.116 (over 19 years) to 1.6 (over 10 years). Discounted costs of therapy ranged from 30,362 US dollars (10 years, 2002 values) to 93,000 US dollars (22 years, 1998 values), and comparator costs ranged from 22,593 US dollars (10 years, 2002 values) to 84,000 US dollars (22 years, 1998 values).

Antirheumatic Agents↗

PubMed2005

Incorporation of uncertainty in health economic modelling studies.

In a recent leading article in PharmacoEconomics, Nuijten described some methods for incorporating uncertainty into health economic models and for utilising the information on uncertainty regarding the cost effectiveness of a therapy in resource allocation decision-making. His proposals are found to suffer from serious flaws in statistical and health economic reasoning.Nuijten's suggestions for incorporating uncertainty: (a) wrongly interpret the p-value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true; (b) represent this probability wrongly by truncating the input distribution; and (c) in the specific example of an antiparkinsonian drug uses a completely inappropriate p-value of 0.05 when the null hypothesis would, in reality, be emphatically disproved by the data.His suggestions regarding minimum important differences in cost effectiveness: (a) introduce areas of indifference that suggest inappropriate reliance on cost minimisation while failing to recognise that decisions should be based on expected costs versus benefits; and (b) offer no guidance on how the probabilities associated with these areas could be used in decision-making. Furthermore, Nuijten's model for Parkinson's disease is over-simplified to the point of providing a bad example of modelling practice, which may mislead the readers of PharmacoEconomics. The rationale for this paper is to ensure that readers do not apply inappropriate analyses as a result of following the proposals contained in Nuijten's paper. In addition to a detailed critique of Nuijten's proposals, we provide brief summaries of the currently accepted best practice in cost-effectiveness decision-making under uncertainty.

Antiparkinson Agents↗

PubMed2005

Should patients have a greater role in valuing health states?

Currently, health state values are usually obtained from members of the general public trying to imagine what the state would be like rather than by patients who are actually in the various states of health. Valuations of a health state by patients tend to vary from those of the general population, and this seems to be due to a range of factors including errors in the descriptive system, adaptation to the state and changes in internal standards. The question of whose values are used in cost-effectiveness analysis is ultimately a normative one, but the decision should be informed by evidence on the reasons for the differences. There is a case for obtaining better informed general population preferences by providing more information on what it is like for patients (including the process of adaptation).

Adaptation, Psychological↗

PubMed2003

Evaluation of the impact of a technology appraisal process in England: the South and West Development and Evaluation Committee.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the influence of the English National Health Service (NHS) South and West (S&W) region Development and Evaluation Committee (DEC) technology appraisal reports on purchasing and clinical decisions in the S&W and elsewhere in the NHS, and to estimate the cost of the DEC process. METHODS: Two postal questionnaires examining issues of awareness, influence and quality of the DEC reports were sent to samples of clinical and managerial health service staff in S&W NHS region, the North West NHS region, and three other randomly selected health authorities elsewhere. Supplementary telephone interviews were undertaken with a subsample of staff. Trends in utilisation before and after the publication of four S&W DEC reports were examined using routine health service data. RESULTS: Survey response rates ranged between 73% and 85%. Within health authorities in the S&W, agreement about the impact of the DEC in informing policy and purchasing decisions was consistently high, although responses from clinicians were more equivocal. In the topic areas examined, the impact of the DEC reports could not be separated from wider influences on practice. The cost of each DEC report is estimated to have been pounds sterling 24659. CONCLUSIONS: Health service staff perceived that the S&W DEC process had had an impact on policy decisions and clinical practice locally; however, any actual impact on practice could not be identified with routine data. The approach used in this study would be valuable in evaluating the impact of the English NHS National Institute for Clinical Excellence.

Attitude of Health Personnel↗

PubMed2002

Estimating the potential health gain and cost consequences of introducing a pre-school DTPa pertussis booster into the UK child vaccination schedule.

This work estimates the health and cost impacts of a pre-school booster vaccination for Bordetella pertussis, when added to existing UK primary vaccination. A transition state simulation model of pertussis infection in a closed population was constructed comprising of susceptible, infected and immune population sub-groups, across eight age bands. Epidemiological, service use and cost data were sourced from routine statistics, published literature and clinician estimates. The introduction of a pre-school booster is predicted to reduce the number of hospitalisations by approximately 1400 and pertussis cases suffered by up to 28,000 at a net investment of under 13 million pounds over a 5-year period.

Child, Preschool↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Cost-effectiveness of sibutramine in the treatment of obesity.

BACKGROUND: This study reports incremental cost-utility of sibutramine compared to diet and lifestyle advice for the treatment of obesity. METHOD: The model estimates the costs and quality of life benefits associated with weight loss itself and the reduced incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and diabetes in the "healthy obese." The key source of effectiveness data is 2 randomized controlled trials over 12 months. Utility gain per kilogram lost is analyzed using Short Form-36 data from sibutramine trials. The impact on CHD is estimated using the Framingham risk equation, which relates age/sex/body mass index to risk of heart disease. The reduced incidence of diabetes due to weight loss is estimated from published literature. A life tables approach was used to calculate the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) of 1 year's treatment with sibutramine compared to diet and lifestyle advice. RESULTS: The incremental cost per QALY of sibutramine is 4,780 UK pounds. Sensitivity analyses show that this result is sensitive to utility associated with weight loss and the frequency of monitoring. CONCLUSIONS: Sibutramine is a cost-effective treatment for obesity when combined with diet and lifestyle advice.

Adult↗