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Biomedical subjects

Alan Hastings

Publications and source records attributed to Alan Hastings.

18 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2007

Invasion in a heterogeneous world: resistance, coexistence or hostile takeover?

We review and synthesize recent developments in the study of the invasion of communities in heterogeneous environments, considering both the invasibility of the community and impacts to the community. We consider both empirical and theoretical studies. For each of three major kinds of environmental heterogeneity (temporal, spatial and invader-driven), we find evidence that heterogeneity is critical to the invasibility of the community, the rate of spread, and the impacts on the community following invasion. We propose an environmental heterogeneity hypothesis of invasions, whereby heterogeneity both increases invasion success and reduces the impact to native species in the community, because it promotes invasion and coexistence mechanisms that are not possible in homogeneous environments. This hypothesis could help to explain recent findings that diversity is often increased as a result of biological invasions. It could also explain the scale dependence of the diversity-invasibility relationship. Despite the undoubted importance of heterogeneity to the invasion of communities, it has been studied remarkably little and new research is needed that simultaneously considers invasion, environmental heterogeneity and community characteristics. As a young field, there is an unrivalled opportunity for theoreticians and experimenters to work together to build a tractable theory informed by data.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Using ecosystem engineers to restore ecological systems.

Ecosystem engineers affect other organisms by creating, modifying, maintaining or destroying habitats. Despite widespread recognition of these often important effects, the ecosystem engineering concept has yet to be widely used in ecological applications. Here, we present a conceptual framework that shows how consideration of ecosystem engineers can be used to assess the likelihood of restoration of a system to a desired state, the type of changes necessary for successful restoration and how restoration efforts can be most effectively partitioned between direct human intervention and natural ecosystem engineers.

Ecology↗
PubMed2006

Explaining the explosion: modelling hybrid invasions.

The emergence of hybrids between native and introduced species is an increasingly widespread problem which can alter entire ecosystems. We present a general model for the hybridization of two plant species to investigate the conditions under which hybrid invasions can occur, and the ecological and genetic consequences of such hybridizations. We find that parental compatibility and fecundity are important determinants of whether (and at what rate) hybrid genotypes emerge. Enhanced hybrid fitness traits affect both the population's genetic structure and total rate of increase, with rapid selection for the fittest genotype. Conversely, if different genotypes maximize different life-history characteristics, the ensuing population can be genetically very variable. The model provides a novel approach to evaluate the contributions of population dynamic and genetic processes in the study of hybrid invasions.

Computational Biology↗
PubMed2006

A simple approach to optimal control of invasive species.

The problem of invasive species and their control is one of the most pressing applied issues in ecology today. We developed simple approaches based on linear programming for determining the optimal removal strategies of different stage or age classes for control of invasive species that are still in a density-independent phase of growth. We illustrate the application of this method to the specific example of invasive Spartina alterniflora in Willapa Bay, WA. For all such systems, linear programming shows in general that the optimal strategy in any time step is to prioritize removal of a single age or stage class. The optimal strategy adjusts which class is the focus of control through time and can be much more cost effective than prioritizing removal of the same stage class each year.

Plant Development↗
PubMed2006

Persistence of spatial populations depends on returning home.

There is a need for better description and heuristic understanding of the sustainability of populations connected over space by a dispersing stage, both for management purposes and to increase our basic knowledge of the dynamics of these populations. We show that persistence of such a population of connected subpopulations depends on whether the sum of the reproductive gains through all possible closed, between-patch reproductive paths through multiple generations, relative to the shortfall in self-persistence in each path, exceeds unity plus extra terms, which only appear if there are four or more patches. These extra terms have the heuristic explanation that they avoid double counting of reproductive paths that arise with four or more patches because there can be nonoverlapping subnetworks. Thus only those patterns of reproduction and connectivity which eventually lead to descendants returning to the patch from which they originate contribute to persistence. This result provides the basis for evaluating connectivity and habitat heterogeneity to understand reserve design, the effects of human fragmentation, the collapse of marine fisheries, and other conservation issues.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

A simple persistence condition for structured populations.

The fundamental question in both basic and applied population biology of whether a species will increase in numbers is often investigated by finding the population growth rate as the largest eigenvalue of a deterministic matrix model. For a population classified only by age, and not stage or size, a simpler biologically interpretable condition can be used, namely whether R0, the mean number of offspring per newborn, is greater than one. However, for the many populations not easily described using only age classes, stage-structured models must be used for which there is currently no quantity like R0. We determine analogous quantities that must be greater than one for persistence of a general structured population model that have a similar useful biological interpretation. Our approach can be used immediately to determine the magnitude of changes and interactions that would either allow population persistence or would ensure control of an undesirable species.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

When are no-take zones an economically optimal fishery management strategy?

Discussions on the use of marine reserves (no-take zones) and, more generally, spatial management of fisheries are, for the most part, devoid of analyses that consider the ecological and economic effects simultaneously. To fill this gap, we develop a two-patch ecological-economic model to investigate the effects of spatial management on fishery profits. Because the fishery effects of spatial management depend critically on the nature of the ecological connectivity, our model includes both juvenile and adult movement, with density dependence in settlement differentiating the two types of dispersal. Rather than imposing a reserve on our system and measuring its effect on profits, we ask: "When does setting catch levels to maximize system-wide profits imply that a reserve should be created?" Closing areas to fishing is an economically optimal solution when the value derived from spillover from the reserve outweighs the value of fishing in the patch. The condition, while simple to state in summary form, is complex to interpret because it depends on the settlement success of the dispersing organisms, the nature of the costs of the fishing, the economic and ecological heterogeneity of the system, the discount rate, and growth characteristics of the fish population. The condition is more likely to be satisfied when the closed area is a net exporter of biomass and has higher costs of fishing, and for fish populations with density-independent settlement ("adult movement") than with density-dependent settlement ("larval dispersal"). Rather surprisingly, there are circumstances whereby closing low biological productivity areas, and even sometimes low cost areas to fish, can result in greater fishing profits than when both areas are open to fishing.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Widening the window of persistence in seasonal pathogen-host systems.

Local instability of exploiter-victim systems is well-known in both theory and in nature. Victims can be too sparse to support exploiter reproduction (under-exploitation) or they can be too readily driven to extinction (over-exploitation). Exploiters of seasonal resources face the additional challenge of surviving periods when victims are rare or unavailable. We formulate a fully stochastic model of highly seasonal pathogen-host dynamics and explore the interactions between an entomopathogenic nematode and its lepidopteran host. Our model suggests that if nematode populations experience the high rates of mortality predicted by short-term laboratory experiments, the paired threats of under- and over-exploitation should preclude the long-term persistence of this exploiter-victim system. We measured nematode mortality rates in the field and found that long-term mortality is lower than that predicted by short-term experiments. Incorporation of this new data into our model produces long-term persistence of local nematode populations across a range of initial nematode densities.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Seasonally limited host supply generates microparasite population cycles.

Cycles in biological populations have been shown to arise from enemy-victim systems, delayed density dependence, and maternal effects. In an initial effort to model the year-to-year dynamics of natural populations of entomopathogenic nematodes and their insect hosts, we find that a simple, nonlinear, mechanistic model produces large amplitude, period two population cycles. The cycles are generated by seasonal dynamics within semi-isolated populations independently of inter-annual feedback in host population numbers, which differs from previously studied mechanisms. The microparasites compete for a fixed number of host insect larvae. Many nematodes at the beginning of the year quickly eliminate the pool of small hosts, and few nematodes are produced for the subsequent year. Conversely, initially small nematode populations do not over-exploit the host population, so the surviving hosts grow to be large and produce many nematodes that survive to the following year.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Transients: the key to long-term ecological understanding?

Ecological theory has been dominated by a focus on long-term or asymptotic behavior as a way to understand natural systems. Yet experiments are done on much shorter timescales, and the relevant timescales for ecological systems can also be relatively short. Thus, there is a mismatch between the timescales of most experiments and the timescales of many theoretical investigations. However, recent work has emphasized the importance of transient dynamics rather than long-term behavior in ecological systems, enabling the examination of forces that allow coexistence on ecological timescales. Through an examination of what leads to transients in ecological systems, a deeper appreciation of the forces leading to persistence or coexistence in ecological systems emerges, as well as a general understanding of how population levels can change through time.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2003

Uniform vertical transmission and selection in a host-symbiont system. Non-random symbiont distribution generates apparent differential selection.

We investigate the survival, prevalence, and distribution of a symbiont in its host population when the forces of vertical transmission (beta) and symbiont-induced selection (s) are uniform (invariant across host genotypes). We use host-symbiont disequilibria to quantify the role played by non-random associations between host genotypes and the symbiont in altering host genetic structure. Results show a larger part of the parameter space permits symbiont survival under mutualism (beta>/=0.25) than parasitism (beta>0.5). The nonlinear interaction between beta and s determines symbiont survival and prevalence at equilibrium; initial symbiont prevalence is a factor only in a small number of parameter combinations. The symbiont's non-random distribution generates apparent differential selection, when selective differences across host genotypes and alleles exist under uniform selection. The direction of change in host allele frequencies is determined exclusively by the signs of s and the allelic disequilibrium. Disequilibria cannot be created or maintained, and heterozygote disequilibrium changes sign in a greater number of runs and at higher magnitudes than homozygote disequilibria. This investigation increases our understanding of the interactions between vertical transmission and selection, and their effect on the coevolutionary dynamics and final states of interacting species under different selection regimes.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Metapopulation persistence with age-dependent disturbance or succession.

Simple metapopulation models with random disturbances are used in species conservation or management, relying on the condition for persistence that the per-patch colonization rate be greater than the per-patch extinction rate. For a general model incorporating the role of succession or patch age-dependent extinction, I show that persistence requires the per-patch colonization rate to be greater than the inverse of mean patch age, where age is the time since the patch became available for colonization. Because mean patch age can be arbitrarily large relative to the extinction rate, currently persisting metapopulations may be persisting despite small colonization rates, and management approaches that do not consider the role of mean patch age may unnecessarily doom populations to extinction.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Resistance may be futile: dispersal scales and selection for disease resistance in competing plants.

If a host species shares a pathogen with competing species, the disease may provide a net benefit. Selection for resistance will depend on the trade-off between the damage done by the disease and the positive effects resulting from infection of competitors. This paper presents a simple, spatially explicit model of a plant that shares a disease with a superior competitor. The phenotypic evolution of cost-free resistance is studied by using the method of pair approximation to analyse the small-scale spatial structure of the interacting populations. Selection favors lower resistance when disease transmission is spatially local and the damage to the competitor is sufficient to outweigh the direct effects of infection. This suggests that local spatial structure may be critical in determining the coevolution of host-host-pathogen systems.

Competitive Behavior↗
PubMed2003

Limiting relationships between selection and recombination.

It is difficult to directly observe processes like natural selection at the genetic level, but relatively easy to estimate genetic frequencies in populations. As a result, genetic frequency data are widely used to make inferences about the underlying evolutionary processes. However, multiple processes can generate the same patterns of frequency data, making such inferences weak. By studying the limits to the underlying processes, one can make inferences from frequency data by asking how strong selection (or some other process of interest) would have to be to generate the observed pattern. Here we present results of a study of the limits to the relationship between selection and recombination in two-locus, two-allele systems in which we found the limiting relationships for over 30000 sets of parameters, effectively covering the range of two-locus, two-allele problems. Our analysis relates T(min)--the minimum time for a population to evolve from the initial to the final conditions--to the strengths of selection and recombination, the amount of linkage disequilibrium, and the Nei distance between the initial and final conditions. T(min) can be large with either large disequilibrium and small Nei distance, or the reverse. The behavior of T(min) provides information about the limiting relationships between selection and recombination. Our methods allow evolutionary inferences from frequency data when deterministic processes like selection and recombination are operating; in this sense they complement methods based entirely on drift.

Alleles↗
PubMed2003

Spatial mechanisms for coexistence of species sharing a common natural enemy.

We examine the conditions under which spatial structure can mediate coexistence of apparent competitors. We use a spatially explicit, host-parasitoid metapopulation model incorporating local dynamics of Nicholson-Bailey type and global dispersal. Depending on the model parameters, the resulting system displays a plethora of asynchronous dynamical behaviors for which permanent or transient coexistence is observed. We identify a number of spatially mediated tradeoffs which apparent competitors can utilize and demonstrate that the dynamics of spatial coexistence can typically be understood from consideration of two and three patch systems. The phase relationships of species abundances are different for our model than for some other mechanisms of spatial coexistence. We discuss the implications of our findings relative to issues of community organization and biological conservation.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

The effects of dispersal patterns on marine reserves: does the tail wag the dog?

The concept of marine reserves as a method of improving management of fisheries is gaining momentum. While the list of benefits from reserves is frequently promoted, precise formulations of theory to support reserve design are not fully developed. To determine the size of reserves and the distances between reserves an understanding of the requirements for persistence of local populations is required. Unfortunately, conditions for persistence are poorly characterized, as are the larval dispersal patterns on which persistence depends. With the current paucity of information regarding meroplanktonic larval transport processes, understanding the robustness of theoretical results to larval dispersal is of key importance. From this formulation a broad range of dispersal patterns are analyzed. Larval dispersal is represented by a probability distribution that defines the fraction of successful settlers from an arbitrary location, the origin of the distribution, to any other location along the coast. While the effects of specific dispersal patterns have been investigated for invasion processes, critical habitat size and persistence issues have generally been addressed with only one or two dispersal types. To that end, we formulate models based on integrodifference equations that are spatially continuous and temporally discrete. We consider a range of dispersal distributions from leptokurtic to platykurtic. The effect of different dispersal patterns is considered for a single isolated reserve of varying size receiving no external larvae, as well as multiple reserves with varying degrees of connectivity. While different patterns result in quantitative differences in persistence, qualitatively similar effects across all patterns are seen in both single- and multiple reserve models. Persistence in an isolated reserve requires a size that is approximately twice the mean dispersal distance and regardless of the dispersal pattern the population in a patch is not persistent if the reserve size is reduced to just the mean dispersal distance. With an idealized coastline structure consisting of an infinite line of equally spaced reserves separated by regions of coastline in which reproduction is nil, the relative settlement as a function of the fraction of coastline and size of reserve is qualitatively very similar over a broad range of dispersal patterns. The upper limit for the minimum fraction of coastline held in reserve is about 40%. As the fraction of coastline is reduced, the minimum size of reserve becomes no more than 1.25 times the mean dispersal distance.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

The impact of resource limitation and the phenology of parasitoid attack on the duration of insect herbivore outbreaks.

Fluctuations in resource quality and quantity, and changes in mortality due to predators and parasites are thought to be of prime importance in the regular fluctuations of forest insects. We examine how food limitation and parasitoids with different phenologies of attack regulate the population cycles of insect hosts. Our analysis of the limit cycle of a model with a biologically realistic form of density dependence in the host yields two novel predictions. First, outbreaks will typically last for only 2 generations after parasitoids begin to reduce the host population below the maximum density. Second, host growth rate is important in determining cycle length only when parasitoids attack before the impacts of resource limitation affect the host. The robustness of these predictions are tested using a more general form of density dependence in the host, revealing that our predictions are valid as long as density dependence in the host is not too overcompensatory.

Animals↗