Biomedical subjects

Alfred F Connors

Publications and source records attributed to Alfred F Connors.

21 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

PubMed2002

Can medical school admission committee members predict which applicants will choose primary care careers?

PURPOSE: To determine the accuracy of admission committee members' predictions regarding which applicants are likely to become generalists, and to determine which applicant characteristics are used and should be used in making these predictions. METHOD: Thirteen characteristics of each applicant who entered medical school in 1990-1993 and graduated in 1994-1997 were obtained from their applications. Committee members reviewed these characteristics and assigned a probability of each applicant's choosing a generalist career. Just before their graduation, the students were surveyed to ascertain their career plans. The relationships between the characteristics and career predictions were analyzed using regression models. A secondary analysis examined the relationship between the students' stated career preferences at matriculation and career plans at graduation. RESULTS: The accuracy of the committee members' predictions was low. Predictions of generalist careers were significantly related to seven applicant characteristics: rural legal residence, gender (women), lower science grades, lower MCAT science scores, lower levels of parents' education, no reported research activity, and higher levels of community service. In contrast, the students' actual generalist career plans at graduation were significantly related only to gender (women) and higher levels of community service. In the secondary analysis, applicants' stated career preferences at matriculation were the strongest predictor of their having generalist career plans at graduation. CONCLUSIONS: Admission committee members often made inaccurate predictions about applicants' career plans. This may be because they based their judgments on applicants' characteristics that were not significantly related to the students' career plans at graduation.

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PubMed2002

Cost effectiveness of aggressive care for patients with nontraumatic coma.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost effectiveness of aggressive care for patients with nontraumatic coma. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis. SETTING: Five academic medical centers. PATIENTS: Patients with nontraumatic coma enrolled in the Study to Understand Prognoses and Preferences for Outcomes and Risks of Treatments (SUPPORT). Patients with reversible metabolic causes of coma such as diabetic ketoacidosis or uremia were excluded. MEASUREMENTS: We calculated the incremental cost effectiveness of continuing aggressive care vs. withholding cardiopulmonary resuscitation and ventilatory support after day 3 of coma. We estimated life expectancy based on up to 4.6 yrs of follow-up. Utilities (quality-of-life weights) were estimated using time-tradeoff questions. Costs were based on hospital fiscal data and Medicare data. Separate analyses were conducted for two prognostic groups based on five risk factors assessed on day 3 of coma: age > or = 70 yrs, abnormal brainstem response, absent verbal response, absent withdrawal to pain, and serum creatinine > or = 132.6 micromol/L (1.5 mg/dL). RESULTS: For the 596 patients studied, the median (25th, 75th percentile) age was 67 yrs (range, 55-77), and 52% were female. By 2 months after enrollment, 69% had died, 19% were severely disabled, 7% had survived without severe disability, and 4% had survived with unknown functional status. The incremental cost effectiveness of the more aggressive care strategy was $140,000 (1998 dollars) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) for high-risk patients (3-5 risk factors, 93% 2-month mortality) and $87,000/QALY for low-risk patients (0-2 risk factors, 49% mortality). In sensitivity analyses, the incremental cost per QALY did not fall below $50,000/QALY, even with wide variation in our baseline estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Continuing aggressive care after day 3 of nontraumatic coma is associated with a high cost per QALY gained, especially for patients at high risk for poor outcomes. Earlier decisions to withhold life-sustaining treatments for patients with very poor prognoses may yield considerable cost savings.

Activities of Daily Living↗

PubMed2002

Combined clinical and imaging information as an early stroke outcome measure.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Imaging information has been proposed as a potential surrogate outcome in stroke clinical trials. The purpose of this study was to determine whether an early outcome measure combining clinical and imaging information is better than either alone in predicting 3-month outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients. METHODS: Clinical information (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale) and imaging information (CT infarct volume), measured at 1 week from 201 patients from the Randomized Trial of Tirilazad Mesylate in Acute Stroke (RANTTAS) study, were used in a multivariable logistic regression analysis to predict excellent and devastating 3-month outcome. The combined models were compared with the infarct volume models and the clinical models. Discrimination, calibration, and change in global model chi-square were assessed. RESULTS: The combined models and models using clinical information alone had areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves that did not differ significantly (probability value = 0.092 to 0.4), ranging from 0.83 to 0.95. The imaging alone models performed less well (P<0.005) and had areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves that ranged from 0.70 to 0.80. CONCLUSIONS: The National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale at 1 week is highly predictive of 3-month outcome in ischemic stroke patients. The addition of 1-week infarct volume does not improve the accuracy of the predictive model.

Activities of Daily Living↗