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Amy C Justice

Publications and source records attributed to Amy C Justice.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
PubMed2005

Differences between infectious diseases-certified physicians and general medicine-certified physicians in the level of comfort with providing primary care to patients.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related mortality has decreased because of highly active antiretroviral therapy. As the life expectancy of HIV-infected patients has increased, the management of comorbid disease in such patients has become a more important concern. We examined the level of comfort self-reported by experts in HIV medicine with prescribing medications to HIV-infected patients for hyperlipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, and depression. METHODS: As part of a larger project (the Veterans Aging Cohort Study), physicians at infectious diseases (ID) clinics and physicians at general medical (GM) clinics were asked to complete a survey requesting information about demographic characteristics, training and certification received, and self-reported comfort with prescribing medications for patients with hyperlipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, and/or depression. Comfort was rated using a 5-point Likert scale, with scores of 4-5 classified as "comfortable." RESULTS: Of 150 attending physicians surveyed, 51 (34%) were ID certified, 33 (22%) were GM certified but practicing at an ID clinic, and 66 were GM certified and practicing at a GM clinic. Comorbid conditions were common among HIV-infected patients treated at the ID clinics (22% of these patients had hyperlipidemia, 17% had diabetes, 40% had hypertension, and 27% had depression). However, comfort with treating these conditions was less among physicians at the ID clinic. For example, comfort treating patients with hyperlipidemia was greater for GM-certified physicians at GM clinics than for GM-certified physicians and ID-certified physicians at ID clinics (98% vs. 73% and 71%, respectively; P < .0001 for trend). A similar pattern was seen for treating patients with diabetes and hypertension (P < .0001). Comfort with treating patients with depression was generally lower, particularly among physicians at ID clinics (P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: We found that ID-certified physicians and GM-certified physicians at ID clinics reported less comfort prescribing medications for common comorbid conditions, compared with generalist physicians at GM clinics, despite a substantial prevalence of these conditions at the ID clinics. Methods are needed to increase physicians' level of comfort for prescribing treatment and/or to facilitate referral to other physicians for treatment.

Data Collection↗
PubMed2005

Estimating the proportion of patients infected with HIV who will die of comorbid diseases.

PURPOSE: Effective antiretroviral therapies have improved the prognosis for patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We aimed to estimate the likelihood that HIV-infected patients would die of comorbid disease. METHODS: A probabilistic simulation of antiretroviral-naïve HIV-infected patients in the United States was calibrated with data from an observational cohort (N = 3545) and validated with data from a separate patient cohort (N = 12574). The simulation explicitly represents the 2 main determinants of treatment failure and subsequent death from HIV-related causes: nonadherence to combination therapy and accumulation of phenotypic resistance to combination therapy. The likelihood of deaths not directly attributable to HIV was estimated from the Collaborations in HIV Outcomes Research-US (CHORUS) cohort. RESULTS: For patients with newly diagnosed HIV infections, CD4 counts of 500 cells/mm3, and viral loads of 10000 copies/mL, the median estimated survival was 26.8 years for 30-year-olds, 24.4 years for 40-year-olds and 14.6 years for 50-year-olds. The proportion of deaths not directly attributable to HIV was 36% for 30-year-olds, 53% for 40-year-olds, and 72% for 50-year-olds. For patients with characteristics similar to CHORUS participants, the median estimated survival approached 20.4 years, the mean age at death approached 60.4 years, and 41% died of illnesses not directly attributable to HIV. These estimates of non-HIV mortality were likely conservative. CONCLUSION: As HIV-infected patients live longer, our results suggest they will experience increasing mortality from causes not directly attributable to HIV. The projected risk from comorbid disease has clinical and policy implications for future delivery of care to HIV-infected patients.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

Relative prevalence of comorbidities and treatment contraindications in HIV-mono-infected and HIV/HCV-co-infected veterans.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infection among HIV-infected veterans, assess the prevalence of comorbid conditions that may complicate or limit treatment options, and ascertain whether comorbid conditions were more common in co-infected veterans. DESIGN AND METHODS: We used the Veterans Administration electronic medical records system to identify all veterans receiving care for HIV during fiscal years 1997-2002. Demographic data and diagnostic codes for HIV, HCV, and comorbid conditions were extracted. The validity of using diagnostic codes was assessed by calculating the agreement between chart extraction and electronic data on a separate sample of veterans. Factor analysis was used to identify the structure underlying the intercorrelation between comorbid conditions. Logistic regression was used to compare the prevalence of comorbid conditions and factors between HIV/HCV-co-infected and HIV-mono-infected veterans, adjusting for age and race. RESULTS: We identified 25,116 HIV-infected veterans in care, of whom 4489 (18%) were HCV co-infected. A validity assessment revealed moderate agreement between chart extraction and electronic data for each of the comorbid conditions assessed. HIV/HCV-co-infected veterans were significantly more likely to have each of the comorbid conditions, and to have significantly more comorbid conditions. Factor analysis revealed three dimensions of comorbidity: mental disorders, medical disorders, and alcohol-related complications. Veterans with co-infection were significantly more likely to have mental disorders and alcohol-related complications. CONCLUSIONS: HIV/HCV-co-infected veterans had a higher prevalence of comorbid conditions that may complicate and limit treatment options for HIV and for HCV co-infection. Strategies to improve treatment options for co-infected patients with comorbidities must be developed.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

A temporal and dose-response association between alcohol consumption and medication adherence among veterans in care.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown that alcohol consumption is associated with decreased medication adherence, but this association may be confounded by characteristics common among those who drink heavily and those who fail to adhere (e.g., illicit drug use). Our objective was to determine whether there are temporal and dose-response relationships between alcohol consumption and poor adherence. METHODS: We administered telephone interview surveys to participants in the Veterans Aging Cohort Study, an eight-site observational study of HIV+ and matched HIV- veterans in care, to determine whether alcohol consumption on a particular day was associated with nonadherence to prescribed medications on that same day. We used the Time Line Follow Back to measure alcohol consumption and the Time Line Follow Back Modified for Adherence to measure adherence. Individuals were categorized as abstainers (no alcohol in past 30 days), nonbinge drinkers (alcohol in past 30 days but < or =four standard drinks on each day), or binge drinkers (> or =five standard drinks on at least one day). RESULTS: Among 2702 respondents, 1582 (56.6%) were abstainers, 931 (34.5%) were nonbinge drinkers, and 239 (8.9%) were binge drinkers. Abstainers missed medication doses on 2.4% of surveyed days. Nonbinge drinkers missed doses on 3.5% of drinking days, 3.1% of postdrinking days, and 2.1% of nondrinking days (p < 0.001 for trend), and this trend was more pronounced among HIV+ individuals than HIV- individuals. Binge drinkers missed doses on 11.0% of drinking days, 7.0% of postdrinking days, and 4.1% of nondrinking days (p < 0.001 for trend), and this trend was comparably strong for HIV+ and HIV- individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Among veterans in care, self-reported alcohol consumption demonstrates a temporal and dose-response relationship to poor adherence. HIV+ individuals may be particularly sensitive to alcohol consumption.

Alcohol Drinking↗
PubMed2005

The impact of cigarette smoking on mortality, quality of life, and comorbid illness among HIV-positive veterans.

BACKGROUND: The impact of smoking on outcomes among those with HIV infection has not been determined in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). STUDY OBJECTIVE: Determine the impact of smoking on morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive patients post-HAART. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. PARTICIPANTS: Eight hundred and sixty-seven HIV-positive veterans enrolled in the Veterans Aging Cohort 3 Site Study. MEASUREMENTS: Clinical data were collected through patient questionnaire, International Classification of Diseases--9th edition codes, and standardized chart extraction, and laboratory and mortality data through the national VA database. Quality of life was assessed with the physical component summary (PCS) of the Short-Form 12. RESULTS: Current smokers had increased respiratory symptoms, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and bacterial pneumonia. In analyses adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, CD4 cell count, HIV RNA level, hemoglobin, illegal drug and alcohol use, quality of life was substantially decreased (beta=-3.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] -5.3 to -1.4) and mortality was significantly increased (hazard ratio 1.99, 95% CI 1.03 to 3.86) in current smokers compared with never smokers. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-positive patients who currently smoke have increased mortality and decreased quality of life, as well as increased respiratory symptoms, COPD, and bacterial pneumonia. These findings suggest that smoking cessation should be emphasized for HIV-infected patients.

Comorbidity↗
PubMed2005

How does depression influence diabetes medication adherence in older patients?

OBJECTIVE: Using various measures (electronic monitoring, patient/provider report, pharmacy data), the authors assessed the association between depression and diabetes medication adherence among older patients with Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Patients completed a baseline survey on depression (Patient Health Questionnaire) and were given electronic monitoring caps (EMCs) to use with their oral hypoglycemic medication. At the time of the patient baseline survey, providers completed a survey on their patients' overall medication adherence. Upon returning the caps after 30 days, patients completed a survey on their overall medication adherence. EMC adherence was defined as percent of days out of 30 with correct number of doses. Using pharmacy refill data from the patient baseline through 1 year later, they defined adherence as the percentage of days with adequate medication, based on days' supply across refill periods. RESULTS: Of 203 patients (mean age: 67 years), 10% (N=19) were depressed. Depressed patients were less likely to self-report good adherence and had a lower median percentage of days with adequate medication coverage (on the basis of pharmacy refill data). After adjustment for alcohol use, cognitive impairment, age, and other medication use, depression was still negatively associated with adequate adherence, according to patient report and pharmacy data. Depression showed no associated with adherence on the basis of provider or EMC data. CONCLUSIONS: Depression was independently associated with inadequate medication adherence on the basis of patient self-report and pharmacy data.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Effect of persistent moderate viremia on disease progression during HIV therapy.

OBJECTIVE: Although highly active antiretroviral therapy has been shown to lower plasma HIV-1 RNA in HIV infection, many patients do not reach the target goal of undetectable viremia. We evaluated whether risk of clinical progression varies by level of viral suppression achieved. DESIGN: Patients in the Collaborations in HIV Outcomes Research/United States cohort who maintained stable HIV-1 RNA levels of either <400, 400 to 20,000, or >20,000 copies/mL during a run-in period of at least 6 months were studied. Baseline was the first day after this period. METHODS: Proportional hazards models were used to quantify the relation between baseline HIV-1 RNA levels and risk of a new AIDS-defining diagnosis or death after adjusting for CD4 count, age, gender, ethnicity, study site, prior AIDS-defining diagnosis, and antiretroviral therapy history. RESULTS: Patients (N = 3010) were followed for up to 4.3 years after the 6-month run-in period, with 343 deaths or AIDS-defining diagnoses reported. The risk of a new AIDS-defining diagnosis or death was not significantly different in the 400 to 20,000- and <400-copies/mL groups (6% vs. 7%, hazard ratio [HR] = 1.0, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.7-1.4; P = 0.9) but was significantly higher in the >20,000-copies/mL group (26%, HR = 3.3, 95% CI: 2.5-4.4; P < 0.001 vs. the <400-copies/mL group). Median CD4 count changes during the first year of follow-up showed increases of 75 and 13 cells/mm for the <400- and 400 to 20,000-copies/mL groups, respectively, whereas the >20,000-copies/mL group had a decrease of 23 cells/mm. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who maintained baseline HIV-1 RNA levels of 400 to 20,000 copies/mL for at least 6 months preserved immunologic status and were no more likely to die or develop a new AIDS-defining diagnosis in the time frame studied than those with baseline levels <400 copies/mL. Patients with HIV-1 RNA levels >20,000 copies/mL at baseline had greater clinical and immunologic deterioration. These data suggest that maintenance of moderate viremia may confer clinical benefit not seen when viremia exceeds 20,000 copies/mL, and this should be taken into account when considering the risks and benefits of continuing failing therapy.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Development and validation of a prognostic model for survival time data: application to prognosis of HIV positive patients treated with antiretroviral therapy.

The process of developing and validating a prognostic model for survival time data has been much discussed in the literature. Assessment of the performance of candidate prognostic models on data other than that used to fit the models is essential for choosing a model that will generalize well to independent data. However, there remain difficulties in current methods of measuring the accuracy of predictions of prognostic models for censored survival time data. In this paper, flexible parametric models based on the Weibull, loglogistic and lognormal distributions with spline smoothing of the baseline log cumulative hazard function are used to fit a set of candidate prognostic models across k data sets. The model that generalizes best to new data is chosen using a cross-validation scheme which fits the model on k-1 data sets and tests the predictive accuracy on the omitted data set. The procedure is repeated, omitting each data set in turn. The quality of the predictions is measured using three different methods: two commonly proposed validation methods, Harrell's concordance statistic and the Brier statistic, and a novel method using deviance differences. The results show that the deviance statistic is able to discriminate between quite similar models and can be used to choose a prognostic model that generalizes well to new data. The methods are illustrated by using a model developed to predict progression to a new AIDS event or death in HIV-1 positive patients starting antiretroviral therapy.

Anti-HIV Agents↗
PubMed2004

Psychiatric and neurocognitive disorders among HIV-positive and negative veterans in care: Veterans Aging Cohort Five-Site Study.

BACKGROUND: The risk for psychiatric and neurocognitive disorders among middle-aged and older individuals with HIV infection has not been well characterized. METHODS: The Veterans Aging Cohort 5-Site Study enrolled 1803 patients (1047 HIV-positive) from VA infectious disease and general medicine clinics from September 2001 to June 2002. A convenience subset of 10 patients from each site (n = 50) was consented for formal neurocognitive and psychiatric (NCP) testing. Data from this subset were linked to the larger sample. RESULTS: Kappa scores for agreement beyond chance were fair for available measures when compared with formal NCP testing. Using available measures, depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 and provider reported), alcohol abuse or dependence (ICD-9 codes), and drug abuse or dependence (DAST-10) decreased with age in HIV-negative subjects (P trend <0.05) but did not among HIV-positive subjects (P > 0.05). HIV-positive subjects demonstrated higher prevalence of these conditions with increasing age when compared to HIV-negative subjects. Patient report of memory problems increased with age among both groups after excluding those reporting symptoms of depression (PHQ-9e > or = 10). CONCLUSION: Available measures were no substitute for formal NCP testing. Older HIV-positive veterans demonstrate greater prevalence of depressive symptoms, alcohol abuse or dependence, and drug abuse or dependence than age-matched, HIV-negative veterans. Both groups reported increased memory problems with advancing age. This preliminary work suggests a substantial prevalence of psychiatric and neurocognitive problems among middle-aged and older HIV-infected individuals.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Risk of diabetes in HIV infected veterans pre- and post-HAART and the role of HCV coinfection.

We examined the association of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with diabetes in veterans infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) before and after the institution of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). The role of age, race, liver disease, alcohol, and drug diagnoses upon the risk of diabetes was also determined. Male veterans with HIV who entered care between 1992 and 2001 were identified from the Veterans Affairs (VA) administrative database. Demographic and disease data were extracted. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to determine the incidence of diabetes. Unadjusted and adjusted hazards ratios for diabetes were determined using Cox regression method. A total of 26,988 veterans were studied. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, factors associated with a diagnosis of diabetes included increasing age (HR, 1.44 per 10-year increase in age; 95% CI, 1.39-1.49), minority race (African American: HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.24-1.48; Hispanic: HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.43-1.86), and care in the HAART era (HR, 2.35; 95% CI, 2.01-2.75). There was a significant interaction between care in the HAART era and HCV infection, with HCV infection being associated with a significant risk of diabetes in the HAART era (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.27-1.53) but not in the pre-HAART era (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.75-1.36). In conclusion, HIV-infected veterans in the HAART era are at a higher risk for diabetes compared with those in the pre-HAART era. HCV coinfection is associated with a significantly higher risk of diabetes in the HAART era, but not in the pre-HAART era. HCV-HIV coinfected patients should be aggressively screened for diabetes.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Disease progression in HIV-infected patients treated with stavudine vs. zidovudine.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: This prospective, observational study compared disease progression and death in HIV-1 patients treated with stavudine vs. zidovudine in the Collaborations in HIV Outcomes Research/U.S. (CHORUS) cohort. METHODS: Patients with a first occurrence of CD4 count <500 cells/microL (n=3301) were grouped as: no nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) use; other NRTI without stavudine or zidovudine; stavudine with no zidovudine, with or without other NRTIs; and zidovudine with no stavudine, with or without other NRTIs. The risk for death or disease progression was evaluated in unadjusted analyses and using a Cox proportional hazards model, adjusting for: study site, age, gender, race, route of HIV infection, previous AIDS-defining conditions, number of previous antiretroviral regiments, CD4 count, HIV-1 RNA, and treatment variables. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the sensitivity of the results to major modeling assumptions. A landmark analysis was conducted to determine the absolute difference in time to event. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 2.4 years, there were 57 deaths and 348 AIDS-defining conditions in 405 patients. Stavudine treatment compared with zidovudine resulted in a greater percentage of patients with AIDS-defining events (14.5 vs. 10.9%; P=.013), and an increased risk of disease progression (HR=1.30; 95% CI: 1.01,1.7; P=.04). This result was not sensitive to modeling assumptions. Landmark analysis demonstrated an absolute difference in time to 95% event-free survival of 2.7 months for those with a CD4< or =200 cells/microL and 11 months for those 6 months after model entry. CONCLUSIONS: In unadjusted and adjusted analyses of 3301 HIV-1 infected patients, stavudine containing combination therapy was associated with an increased risk of disease progression or death compared to therapy containing zidovudine. Most of the difference was attributable to new cases of wasting.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed2003

How harmful is hazardous alcohol use and abuse in HIV infection: do health care providers know who is at risk?

We conducted a prospective cohort study to describe the association between alcohol use, HIV disease progression, and drug toxicity and to determine health care provider awareness of excessive alcohol use by recruiting 881 HIV-infected veterans (median age, 49 years; 99% male; 54% African American) from 3 VA HIV clinics. Twenty percent of patients were hazardous drinkers by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, 33% were binge drinkers, 32% had a chart ICD-9 alcohol diagnosis, and 12.5% and 66.7%, respectively, were described by their health care providers as currently and ever drinking "too much." Hazardous/binge drinkers more often had detectable viral loads (P < 0.001). Patients with alcohol diagnoses more often had elevated alanine transaminase or aspartate transaminase levels (P </= 0.02), anemia (P < 0.001), and elevated mean corpuscular volume (P < 0.001). Health care providers missed hazardous drinking in patients with undetectable viral loads (P = 0.01), patients without hepatitis C (P = 0.09), and patients with normal aspartate transaminase levels (P = 0.07) and missed alcohol diagnoses in patients without hepatitis and those with CD4 cell counts of >200/mL. We conclude that in HIV-positive veterans, hazardous drinking and alcohol diagnoses were common and associated with HIV disease progression and/or hepatic comorbidity and anemia. Health care providers more often missed alcohol problems in patients with less severe HIV infection and those without evidence of liver disease. Health care providers should routinely screen and counsel patients regarding alcohol problems as part of standard of care to minimize disease progression and bone marrow and hepatic toxicity.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Differences in symptom expression in older HIV-positive patients: The Veterans Aging Cohort 3 Site Study and HIV Cost and Service Utilization Study experience.

Symptom recognition is critical for patient care but has been little studied in older HIV-infected individuals. The authors examined differences in symptom expression between younger (younger than age 50 years) and older (older than age 50 years) HIV-infected individuals. The authors analyzed data from two cross-sectional studies of HIV-infected individuals: 2864 individuals from the HIV Cost and Service Utilization Study (HCSUS) and 881 individuals from the Veterans Aging Cohort 3 Site Study (VACS 3). The authors compared the prevalence of eight symptoms common to both studies and 10 symptoms examined only in the VACS 3 population, stratified by age and race. Disease severity was assessed by CD4 count and 18 HIV-related diseases reported. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to account for demographics and severity differences. VACS 3 versus HCSUS participants were more likely nonwhite and older. In unadjusted comparisons, older nonwhites were less likely to report experiencing symptoms than younger whites. They reported the fewest total number of symptoms and the fewest individual symptoms common to both studies (headache, fever, nausea/vomiting, and diarrhea) or in the VACS 3 only (dizziness, sleeping difficulty, fatigue, rashes, bloating, and myalgias/arthalgias). Multivariate regression estimates suggest older age predicts a greater likelihood of reporting peripheral neuropathy, weight loss, or hair loss, but a lower likelihood of reporting headaches, depressed mood, white oral patches, or diarrhea. Nonwhites appeared less likely to report symptoms. Age is a determinant of reporting certain symptoms in HIV disease but may be masked or accentuated by other factors such as race.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Testing, referral, and treatment patterns for hepatitis C virus coinfection in a cohort of veterans with human immunodeficiency virus infection.

We examined testing, referral, and treatment of patients with hepatitis C among HIV-infected patients in the Veterans Aging 3-Site Cohort Study by using patient- and provider-completed surveys and laboratory, pharmacy, and administrative records from the Department of Veterans Affairs electronic medical record. Of 881 human immunodeficiency virus-positive patients, 43% were coinfected with hepatitis C virus. Of these, 88 (30%) reported current alcohol consumption. Only one-third were counseled to reduce or stop alcohol consumption. Coinfected patients with indications for hepatitis C treatment had a high rate of contraindications, including both medical and psychiatric comorbidities. Of the 65 patients with indications for hepatitis C therapy and free of contraindications for treatment, only 18% underwent liver biopsy and 3% received IFN. Although treatment indications are common in this population, contraindications are also common. Health care providers are often unaware of alcohol consumption that may accelerate the course of hepatitis C, increase the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma, and reduce treatment efficacy.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Understanding racial disparities in HIV using data from the veterans aging cohort 3-site study and VA administrative data.

OBJECTIVES: We identified race-associated differences in survival among HIV-positive US veterans to examine possible etiologies for these differences. METHODS: We used national administrative data to compare survival by race and used data from the Veterans Aging Cohort 3-Site Study (VACS 3) to compare patients' health status, clinical management, and adherence to medication by race. RESULTS: Nationally, minority veterans had higher mortality rates than did white veterans with HIV. Minority veterans had poorer health than white veterans with HIV. No significant differences were found in clinical management or adherence. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-positive minority veterans experience poorer survival than white veterans. This difference may derive from differences in comorbidities and in the severity of illness of HIV-related disease.

Adult↗
PubMed2002

Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: Insufficient data are available from single cohort studies to allow estimation of the prognosis of HIV-1 infected, treatment-naive patients who start highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). The ART Cohort Collaboration, which includes 13 cohort studies from Europe and North America, was established to fill this knowledge gap. METHODS: We analysed data on 12,574 adult patients starting HAART with a combination of at least three drugs. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. We considered progression to a combined endpoint of a new AIDS-defining disease or death, and to death alone. The prognostic model that generalised best was a Weibull model, stratified by baseline CD4 cell count and transmission group. FINDINGS During 24,310 person-years of follow up, 1094 patients developed AIDS or died and 344 patients died. Baseline CD4 cell count was strongly associated with the probability of progression to AIDS or death: compared with patients starting HAART with less than 50 CD4 cells/microL, adjusted hazard ratios were 0.74 (95% CI 0.62-0.89) for 50-99 cells/microL, 0.52 (0.44-0.63) for 100-199 cells/microL, 0.24 (0.20-0.30) for 200-349 cells/microL, and 0.18 (0.14-0.22) for 350 or more CD4 cells/microL. Baseline HIV-1 viral load was associated with a higher probability of progression only if 100,000 copies/microL or above. Other independent predictors of poorer outcome were advanced age, infection through injection-drug use, and a previous diagnosis of AIDS. The probability of progression to AIDS or death at 3 years ranged from 3.4% (2.8-4.1) in patients in the lowest-risk stratum for each prognostic variable, to 50% (43-58) in patients in the highest-risk strata. INTERPRETATION: The CD4 cell count at initiation was the dominant prognostic factor in patients starting HAART. Our findings have important implications for clinical management and should be taken into account in future treatment guidelines.

Adolescent↗