Biomedical subjects

Andrea Pugliese

Publications and source records attributed to Andrea Pugliese.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2004

Thresholds for macroparasite infections.

We analyse here the equilibria of an infinite system of partial differential equations modelling the dynamics of a population infected by macroparasites. We find that it is possible to define a reproduction number R(0) that satisfies the intuitive definition, and yields a sharp threshold in the behaviour of the system: if R(0) < 1, the parasite-free equilibrium (PFE) is asymptotically stable and there are no endemic equilibria; if R(0) > 1, the PFE is unstable and there exists a unique endemic equilibrium. The results mainly confirm what had been obtained in simplified models, except for the fact that no backward bifurcation occurs in this model. The stability of equilibria is established by extending an abstract linearization principle and by analysing the spectra of appropriate operators.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Seasonal population dynamics of ticks, and its influence on infection transmission: a semi-discrete approach.

In this paper, a simple semi-discrete (ticks' feeding is assumed to occur only during the summers of each year) model for tick population dynamics is presented. Conditions for existence, uniqueness, and stability of a positive equilibrium are found; the system is then studied numerically using parameter estimates calibrated for the tick Ixodes ricinus in Trentino, Italy, and the sensitivity to parameters is examined. Then, this model is extended to consider a tick-transmitted infection of one species of hosts, while other hosts are incompetent to the infection. Assuming, for simplicity, that the infection is not affecting the total number either of hosts or ticks, a threshold condition for infection persistence is obtained. The dependence of the equilibrium infection prevalence on parameters is studied numerically; in particular, we considered how infection prevalence depends on host densities. This analysis reveals that a 'dilution effect' occurs both for competent and for incompetent hosts; this means that, besides a lower threshold for host densities for infection to persist, there exists also an upper threshold: if host densities were higher than the upper threshold, the infection would go to extinction. Numerically, it is found that, for realistic parameter values, the upper threshold is not much higher than observed densities.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Distributed data mining on grids: services, tools, and applications.

Data mining algorithms are widely used today for the analysis of large corporate and scientific datasets stored in databases and data archives. Industry, science, and commerce fields often need to analyze very large datasets maintained over geographically distributed sites by using the computational power of distributed and parallel systems. The grid can play a significant role in providing an effective computational support for distributed knowledge discovery applications. For the development of data mining applications on grids we designed a system called Knowledge Grid. This paper describes the Knowledge Grid framework and presents the toolset provided by the Knowledge Grid for implementing distributed knowledge discovery. The paper discusses how to design and implement data mining applications by using the Knowledge Grid tools starting from searching grid resources, composing software and data components, and executing the resulting data mining process on a grid. Some performance results are also discussed.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2003

Thresholds for disease persistence in models for tick-borne infections including non-viraemic transmission, extended feeding and tick aggregation.

Lyme disease and Tick-Borne Encephalitis (TBE) are two emergent tick-borne diseases transmitted by the widely distributed European tick Ixodes ricinus. The life cycle of the vector and the number of hosts involved requires the development of complex models which consider different routes of pathogen transmission including those occurring between ticks that co-feed on the same host. Hence, we consider here a general model for tick-borne infections. We assumed ticks feed on two types of host species, one competent for viraemic transmission of infection, the second incompetent but included a third transmission route through non-viraemic transmission between ticks co-feeding on the same host. Since a blood meal lasts for several days these routes could lead to interesting nonlinearities in transmission rates, which may have important effects.We derive an explicit formula for the threshold for disease persistence in the case of viraemic transmission, also for the case of viraemic and non-viraemic transmission. From this formula, the effect of parameters on the persistence of infection can be determined. When only viraemic transmission occurs, we confirm that, while the density of the competent host has always a positive effect on infection persistence, the density of the incompetent host may have either a positive effect, by amplifying tick population, or a negative ("dilution") effect, by wasting tick bites on an incompetent host. With non-viraemic transmission, the "dilution" effect becomes less relevant. On the other hand, if the nonlinearity due to extended feeding is included, the dilution effect always occurs, but often at unrealistically high host densities. Finally, we incorporated the effects of tick aggregation on the hosts and correlation of tick stages and found that both had an important effect on infection persistence, if non-viraemic transmission occurred.

Animals↗

PubMed2003

Individual-based vs deterministic models for macroparasites: host cycles and extinction.

Our understanding of the qualitative dynamics of host-macroparasite systems is mainly based on deterministic models. We study here an individual-based stochastic model that incorporates the same assumptions as the classical deterministic model. Stochastic simulations, using parameter values based on some case studies, preserve many features of the deterministic model, like the average value of the variables and the approximate length of the cycles. An important difference is that, even when deterministic models yield damped oscillations, stochastic simulations yield apparently sustained oscillations. The amplitude of such oscillations may be so large to threaten parasites' persistence.With density-dependence in parasite demographic traits, persistence increases somewhat. Allowing instead for infections from an external parasite reservoir, we found that host extinction may easily occur. However, the extinction probability is almost independent of the level of external infection over a wide intermediate parameter region.

Animals↗

PubMed2002

Aggregation, stability, and oscillations in different models for host-macroparasite interactions.

Aggregation is generally recognized as an important factor in the dynamics of host-macroparasite interactions and it has been found relevant in stabilizing the dynamics toward an equilibrium coexistence. In this paper we review the models of Anderson and May (1978, J. Anim. Ecol. 47, 219-247, 249-267) and compare them with some more recently developed models, which incorporate explicit mechanisms (multiple infections or host heterogeneity) for generating aggregation and different degrees of mathematical accuracy. We found that the stabilization yielded by aggregation depends strongly on the mechanism producing the aggregation: multiple infections are much less stabilizing than when aggregation is assumed to be fixed from the outside, while the opposite holds for host heterogeneity. We also give analytical estimates of the period of oscillations occurring when the equilibrium is unstable. Finally, we explore in these models the role of aggregation in host regulation and in determining a threshold value for parasite establishment.

Animals↗

PubMedDate not supplied

On the evolutionary coexistence of parasite strains.

Classical models of parasite competition show that coexistence is impossible if different strains give complete cross-immunity. However, parasite coexistence is possible if some of the model assumptions are changed. For instance, coexistence is impossible if density-dependence operates only in hosts' fertility, but surprisingly becomes possible if hosts' mortality is density-dependent. Parasite strains can also coexist if a host already infected with one strain may become infected by another strain (superinfection). I examine here if these reasons for coexistence carry over to evolutionary timescales: in other words, suppose that potentially a continuum of parasite strains may arise by mutations; will evolution arrive at a halt? in that case, will only one or several strains persist? The paradigm and methods of adaptive dynamics are used in this study. It is found, under reasonably general assumptions, that a unique evolutionarily stable state for virulence, alpha(*), exist for both models. However, the pattern of the invasibility plots depends on the shape of the trade-off (between virulence and transmissibility, or superinfection rates) functions, and on the host demography. In many cases, the state alpha(*) is evolutionarily stable only with respect to small mutations, not to larger ones; hence, evolutionary dynamics will bring virulence to alpha(*) only if mutations are sufficiently small; for larger mutations, evolutionary dynamics are more complex and still mainly unresolved.

Animals↗