Biomedical subjects

Andrew P Tarko

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew P Tarko.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

The extreme value theory approach to safety estimation.

Crash-based safety analysis is hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of crash occurrences, lack of timeliness, and inconsistency in crash reporting. Safety analysis based on observable traffic characteristics more frequent than crashes is one promising alternative. In this research, we proposed a novel application of the extreme value theory to estimate safety. The method is considered proactive in that it no longer requires historical crash data for the model calibration. We evaluated the proposed method by applying it to right-angle collisions at signalized intersections. Evaluation results indicated a promising relationship between safety estimates and historical crash data. Crash estimates at seven out of twelve sites remained within the range of Poisson-based confidence intervals established using historical crash data. The test has yielded large-variance safety estimates due to the short 8-h observation period. A simulation experiment conducted in this study revealed that 3-6 weeks of observation are needed to obtain safety estimates with confidence intervals comparable to those being obtained from 4-year observed crash counts. The proposed method can be applied to other types of locations and collisions as well.

Accidents, Traffic↗

PubMed2003

Perception-based road hazard identification with Internet support.

One of the most important tasks faced by highway agencies is identifying road hazards. Agencies use crash statistics to detect road intersections and segments where the frequency of crashes is excessive. With the crash-based method, a dangerous intersection or segment can be pointed out only after a sufficient number of crashes occur. A more proactive method is needed, and motorist complaints may be able to assist agencies in detecting road hazards before crashes occur. This paper investigates the quality of safety information reported by motorists and the effectiveness of hazard identification based on motorist reports, which were collected with an experimental Internet website. It demonstrates that the intersections pointed out by motorists tended to have more crashes than other intersections. The safety information collected through the website was comparable to 2-3 months of crash data. It was concluded that although the Internet-based method could not substitute for the traditional crash-based methods, its joint use with crash statistics might be useful in detecting new hazards where crash data had been collected for a short time.

Accidents, Traffic↗