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Andrew R Solow

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew R Solow.

11 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

On the Pleistocene extinctions of Alaskan mammoths and horses.

The fossil record has been used to shed light on the late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions in North America and elsewhere. It is therefore important to account for variability due to the incompleteness of the fossil record and error in dating fossil remains. Here, a joint confidence region for the extinction times of horses and mammoths in Alaska is constructed. The results suggest that a prior claim that the extinction of horses preceded the arrival of humans cannot be made with confidence.

Alaska↗
PubMed2005

Inferring extinction from a sighting record.

The extinctions of plant and animal species are almost never observed directly, but must be inferred from sighting records. This paper reviews some methods for statistical inference about the extinction of a single species based on a record of its sightings.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2005

On estimating the number of species from the discovery record.

A common approach to estimating the number of species in a taxonomic or other group is to extrapolate the temporal pattern of historical species discoveries or descriptions. A formal statistical approach to this problem is described. This approach involves fitting an explicit model of the discovery record by maximum likelihood and using the fitted model to estimate the number of undiscovered species. The approach is applied to a description record of large marine animals covering the period 1828-1996. The estimated number of undiscovered species in this group is around 10 with an upper 0.95 confidence bound of around 16.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

A method for reconstructing climate from fossil beetle assemblages.

Fossil beetle remains have been used to reconstruct temperatures. One method by which these reconstructions are made--the Mutual Climatic Range method--is based on the overlap of the observed modern climatic ranges of the beetles present in a fossil sample. A limitation of this method is that it does not exploit variations in the rate of occurrence of a species within its climatic range. We present an alternative method that uses observed variations in this rate in modern data for climate reconstruction. The method is shown to perform well in an experiment using modern data from North America.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2003

Flightless birds: when did the dodo become extinct?

The extinction of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus L.; Fig. 1) is commonly dated to the last confirmed sighting in 1662, reported by Volkert Evertsz on an islet off Mauritius. By this time, the dodo had become extremely rare - the previous sighting having been 24 years earlier - but the species probably persisted unseen beyond this date. Here we use a statistical method to establish the actual extinction time of the dodo as 1690, almost 30 years after its most recent sighting.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Testing the power law model for discrete size data.

It is sometimes claimed that different types of size data in biology follow a power law. Here, a formal statistical test of the power law for discrete size data is described. The test is based on embedding the power law in the nonparametric family of distributions for which frequency is nonincreasing with size. A parametric bootstrap is used to assess significance. The test is applied to four data sets concerning the frequency of genera of different sizes. The power law is rejected in three out of four cases.

Body Constitution↗
PubMed2003

On the pattern of discovery of introduced species.

Introductions of nonindigenous species can have significant effects. It is commonly claimed that the rate of species introductions to the United States has increased over time. This claim is based in part on the increasing rate of discoveries of introduced species. This discovery rate is influenced by factors other than the introduction rate. These include the sampling rate and population growth in the introduced species. In this article, we show that the discovery rate can increase even when there is no increase in either the introduction rate or the sampling rate. This suggests that the basis for some claims regarding an increasing rate of introductions may be invalid.

Ecosystem↗
PubMed2002

A model of fishing vessel accident probability.

PROBLEM: Commercial fishing is one of the least safe occupations. METHOD: The researchers develop a fishing vessel accident probability model for fishing areas off the northeastern United States using logit regression and daily data from 1981 to 1993. RESULTS: The results indicate that fishing vessel accident probability declined over the study period. Higher wind speed is associated with greater accident probability. Medium-size vessels have the highest accident probability, while small vessels have the lowest. Within the study region, accident probability is lower in the southwestern section than in the northeastern section. Accidents are likely to occur closer to shore than offshore. Accident probability is lowest in spring. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The probability model is an important building block in development and quantitative assessment of management mechanisms related to safety in the commercial fishing industry.

Accidents, Occupational↗