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Biomedical subjects

Awash Teklehaimanot

Publications and source records attributed to Awash Teklehaimanot.

9 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2005

Rapid urban malaria appraisal (RUMA) in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: The rapid urban malaria appraisal (RUMA) methodology aims to provide a cost-effective tool to conduct rapid assessments of the malaria situation in urban sub-Saharan Africa and to improve the understanding of urban malaria epidemiology. METHODS: This work was done in Yopougon municipality (Abidjan), Cotonou, Dar es Salaam and Ouagadougou. The study design consists of six components: 1) a literature review, 2) the collection of available health statistics, 3) a risk mapping, 4) school parasitaemia surveys, 5) health facility-based surveys and 6) a brief description of the health care system. These formed the basis of a multi-country evaluation of RUMA's feasibility, consistency and usefulness. RESULTS: A substantial amount of literature (including unpublished theses and statistics) was found at each site, providing a good overview of the malaria situation. School and health facility-based surveys provided an overview of local endemicity and the overall malaria burden in different city areas. This helped to identify important problems for in-depth assessment, especially the extent to which malaria is over-diagnosed in health facilities. Mapping health facilities and breeding sites allowed the visualization of the complex interplay between population characteristics, health services and malaria risk. However, the latter task was very time-consuming and required special expertise. RUMA is inexpensive, costing around 8,500-13,000 USD for a six to ten-week period. CONCLUSION: RUMA was successfully implemented in four urban areas with different endemicity and proved to be a cost-effective first approach to study the features of urban malaria and provide an evidence basis for planning control measures.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia II. Weather-based prediction systems perform comparably to early detection systems in identifying times for interventions.

BACKGROUND: Timely and accurate information about the onset of malaria epidemics is essential for effective control activities in epidemic-prone regions. Early warning methods that provide earlier alerts (usually by the use of weather variables) may permit control measures to interrupt transmission earlier in the epidemic, perhaps at the expense of some level of accuracy. METHODS: Expected case numbers were modeled using a Poisson regression with lagged weather factors in a 4th-degree polynomial distributed lag model. For each week, the numbers of malaria cases were predicted using coefficients obtained using all years except that for which the prediction was being made. The effectiveness of alerts generated by the prediction system was compared against that of alerts based on observed cases. The usefulness of the prediction system was evaluated in cold and hot districts. RESULTS: The system predicts the overall pattern of cases well, yet underestimates the height of the largest peaks. Relative to alerts triggered by observed cases, the alerts triggered by the predicted number of cases performed slightly worse, within 5% of the detection system. The prediction-based alerts were able to prevent 10-25% more cases at a given sensitivity in cold districts than in hot ones. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction of malaria cases using lagged weather performed well in identifying periods of increased malaria cases. Weather-derived predictions identified epidemics with reasonable accuracy and better timeliness than early detection systems; therefore, the prediction of malarial epidemics using weather is a plausible alternative to early detection systems.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2004

Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia I. Patterns of lagged weather effects reflect biological mechanisms.

BACKGROUND: Malaria epidemics due to Plasmodium falciparum are reported frequently in the East African highlands with high case fatality rates. There have been formal attempts to predict epidemics by the use of climatic variables that are predictors of transmission potential. However, little consensus has emerged about the relative importance and predictive value of different factors. Understanding the reasons for variation is crucial to determining specific and important indicators for epidemic prediction. The impact of temperature on the duration of a mosquito's life cycle and the sporogonic phase of the parasite could explain the inconsistent findings. METHODS: Daily average number of cases was modeled using a robust Poisson regression with rainfall, minimum temperature and maximum temperatures as explanatory variables in a polynomial distributed lag model in 10 districts of Ethiopia. To improve reliability and generalizability within similar climatic conditions, we grouped the districts into two climatic zones, hot and cold. RESULTS: In cold districts, rainfall was associated with a delayed increase in malaria cases, while the association in the hot districts occurred at relatively shorter lags. In cold districts, minimum temperature was associated with malaria cases with a delayed effect. In hot districts, the effect of minimum temperature was non-significant at most lags, and much of its contribution was relatively immediate. CONCLUSIONS: The interaction between climatic factors and their biological influence on mosquito and parasite life cycle is a key factor in the association between weather and malaria. These factors should be considered in the development of malaria early warning system.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Alert threshold algorithms and malaria epidemic detection.

We describe a method for comparing the ability of different alert threshold algorithms to detect malaria epidemics and use it with a dataset consisting of weekly malaria cases collected from health facilities in 10 districts of Ethiopia from 1990 to 2000. Four types of alert threshold algorithms are compared: weekly percentile, weekly mean with standard deviation (simple, moving average, and log-transformed case numbers), slide positivity proportion, and slope of weekly cases on log scale. To compare dissimilar alert types on a single scale, a curve was plotted for each type of alert, which showed potentially prevented cases versus number of alerts triggered over 10 years. Simple weekly percentile cutoffs appear to be as good as more complex algorithms for detecting malaria epidemics in Ethiopia. The comparative method developed here may be useful for testing other proposed alert thresholds and for application in other populations.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2004

A review of the clinical and epidemiologic burdens of epidemic malaria.

The role of epidemic malaria as a distinct epidemiologic entity posing unique intervention challenges is reviewed from a global perspective. Epidemic malaria derives from particular interactions of vectors, parasites, and various environmental and anthropogenic determinants. Malaria epidemics generally afflict immunologically vulnerable populations, and their explosiveness can strain the capacity of health facilities, causing case fatality rates to increase five-fold or more during outbreaks. People of all ages remain susceptible to the full range of clinical effects. This flatter demographic profile may translate into larger economic consequences, although the full economic impact of epidemic malaria remains undefined. Specialized intervention approaches are recommended for epidemic-prone areas, including enhanced surveillance activities and intensified antivector interventions. Such considerations are particularly critical during a time when malaria epidemics are occurring more frequently in Africa and throughout the world.

Cost of Illness↗
PubMed2003

Estimating the needs for artesunate-based combination therapy for malaria case-management in Africa.

Because of inadequacies in national health information systems, the volumes of drugs required to support an effective policy transition toward artesunate-based combination therapy (ACT) are unknown for most African countries. A series of national surveys and population projections have been used to estimate the age-structured fever burden among 41 malaria endemic countries in Africa. Under present fever-management guidelines, commodity costs and internationally agreed coverage targets, the financial resources to meet the needs of ACT in most African countries are huge. Between US$1.6 billion and US$3.4 billion per annum must be found to give Africa the chance to consider a drug policy based on ACT. Substantial reductions in these costs would be achieved through more effective targeting of resources--only 20% of drugs would be required to manage fevers among the most at-risk pediatric patient populations. Better diagnostics would also be an important consideration for a new ACT policy in Africa.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Scaling-up coverage with insecticide-treated nets against malaria in Africa: who should pay?

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) have been shown to reduce the burden of malaria in African villages by providing personal protection and, if coverage of a community is comprehensive, by reducing the infective mosquito population. We do not accept the view that scaling-up this method should be by making villagers pay for nets and insecticide, with subsidies limited so as not to discourage the private sector. We consider that ITNs should be viewed as a public good, like vaccines, and should be provided via the public sector with generous assistance from donors. Our experience is that teams distributing free ITNs, replacing them after about 4 years when they are torn and retreating them annually, have high productivity and provide more comprehensive and equitable coverage than has been reported for marketing systems. Very few of the free nets are misused or sold. The estimated cost would be an annual expenditure of about US$295 million to provide for all of rural tropical Africa where most of the world's malaria exists. This expenditure is affordable by the world community as a whole, but not by its poorest members. Recently, funding of this order of magnitude has been committed by donor agencies for malaria control.

Africa↗
PubMed2002

Forecasting malaria incidence from historical morbidity patterns in epidemic-prone areas of Ethiopia: a simple seasonal adjustment method performs best.

The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of different methods of forecasting malaria incidence from historical morbidity patterns in areas with unstable transmission. We tested five methods using incidence data reported from health facilities in 20 areas in central and north-western Ethiopia. The accuracy of each method was determined by calculating errors resulting from the difference between observed incidence and corresponding forecasts obtained for prediction intervals of up to 12 months. Simple seasonal adjustment methods outperformed a statistically more advanced autoregressive integrated moving average method. In particular, a seasonal adjustment method that uses mean deviation of the last three observations from expected seasonal values consistently produced the best forecasts. Using 3 years' observation to generate forecasts with this method gave lower errors than shorter or longer periods. Incidence during the rainy months of June-August was the most predictable with this method. Forecasts for the normally dry months, particularly December-February, were less accurate. The study shows the limitations of forecasting incidence from historical morbidity patterns alone, and indicates the need for improved epidemic early warning by incorporating external predictors such as meteorological factors.

Disease Outbreaks↗