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B Brumback

Publications and source records attributed to B Brumback.

4 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2000

Marginal structural models and causal inference in epidemiology.

In observational studies with exposures or treatments that vary over time, standard approaches for adjustment of confounding are biased when there exist time-dependent confounders that are also affected by previous treatment. This paper introduces marginal structural models, a new class of causal models that allow for improved adjustment of confounding in those situations. The parameters of a marginal structural model can be consistently estimated using a new class of estimators, the inverse-probability-of-treatment weighted estimators.

Anti-HIV Agents↗
PubMed2000

Marginal structural models to estimate the causal effect of zidovudine on the survival of HIV-positive men.

Standard methods for survival analysis, such as the time-dependent Cox model, may produce biased effect estimates when there exist time-dependent confounders that are themselves affected by previous treatment or exposure. Marginal structural models are a new class of causal models the parameters of which are estimated through inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting; these models allow for appropriate adjustment for confounding. We describe the marginal structural Cox proportional hazards model and use it to estimate the causal effect of zidovudine on the survival of human immunodeficiency virus-positive men participating in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. In this study, CD4 lymphocyte count is both a time-dependent confounder of the causal effect of zidovudine on survival and is affected by past zidovudine treatment. The crude mortality rate ratio (95% confidence interval) for zidovudine was 3.6 (3.0-4.3), which reflects the presence of confounding. After controlling for baseline CD4 count and other baseline covariates using standard methods, the mortality rate ratio decreased to 2.3 (1.9-2.8). Using a marginal structural Cox model to control further for time-dependent confounding due to CD4 count and other time-dependent covariates, the mortality rate ratio was 0.7 (95% conservative confidence interval = 0.6-1.0). We compare marginal structural models with previously proposed causal methods.

Anti-HIV Agents↗
PubMed1996

Bone mass and subtle abnormalities in ovulatory function in healthy women.

Women with occasional anovulatory or short luteal phase menstrual cycles have been reported to lose bone mineral density (BMD) at a greatly accelerated rate compared to women without such abnormalities. To investigate this association, we performed a longitudinal study of BMD in a group of healthy premenopausal women enrolled in a comprehensive study of ovulatory function. Subjects had collected daily urine samples that were analyzed for estrone and progesterone metabolites by enzyme-linked immunoassay. The 53 participants collected urine for an average of 4.1 cycles. Computer algorithms identified 7 (13.2%) women with luteal phase abnormalities (> 1 anovulatory cycle or cycle with luteal phase length < or = 10 days) and 17 (32.1%) women with other menstrual abnormalities. Areal BMD (grams per cm2) was measured at the lumbar spine, hip, and whole body using dual energy x-ray absorptiometry; BMD was measured 2-3 times over an average observation period of 17.5 months. At baseline, women with luteal abnormalities had mean BMD similar to those of the 29 women with no abnormal cycles: lumbar spine, 1.06 vs. 1.09 g/cm2; total hip, 0.95 vs. 0.94 g/cm2; whole body, 1.15 vs. 1.11 g/cm2 (P > 0.10; adjusted for age and weight at baseline, parity, physical activity level, and calcium intake). When compared at follow-up to women with no abnormal cycles, women with luteal abnormalities tended to gain BMD at the spine and hip (P > 0.10). On whole body measurement, women with luteal abnormalities tended to lose BMD compared to women with no abnormal cycles (-1.1%/yr vs. 0%/yr; P = 0.08); however, the magnitude of loss was not unusual for women in this age range and was within the coefficient of variation for replicate measurements. Neither mean luteal phase length, percent time in luteal phase, nor average daily excretion of progesterone metabolites was associated with baseline BMD or percent annual change in BMD at any measurement site. Thus, we did not confirm a relationship between luteal abnormalities and accelerated bone loss in this population of healthy premenopausal women.

Adolescent↗