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Biomedical subjects

B G Spencer

Publications and source records attributed to B G Spencer.

8 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1995

Physician supply in Ontario: further observations on SHARP and the SHARP projections.

In this issue (see pages 1395 to 1398) Eva Ryten questions the validity of the data that supported the projection of a surplus of physicians in Ontario over the next two decades, as presented in an earlier article in CMAJ by Denton, Gafni and Spencer. The authors maintain that the data they used were appropriate. Although the average annual growth rate for the early 1990s calculated from Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP) billing data is somewhat lower than the rate they projected for the decade as a whole, the OHIP-based rate is much closer to their figure than Ryten's rate. They also disagree with Ryten in their belief that the recent reduction of medical school enrollment will have a negligible effect on the physician population by the year 2000. They argue too that Ryten misunderstands the nature of the imbalance they project between the availability of intern and resident services and the requirements for those services. Finally, the authors note that there is an argument for setting requirements for practising physicians at levels lower than they had assumed. For that reason, even if the supply of practising physicians were to grow less rapidly than projected, a substantial surplus could still result by the year 2000.

Humans↗
PubMed1989

Macro-effects of changes in household preferences for children: simulated history and future time paths.

The basic ideas underlying the analysis in this paper are that family size can be viewed as an economic life cycle decision and that there are decision trade-offs among fertility, consumption, and leisure. A micro-model of life cycle choice is developed and embedded in an economic-demographic macro-model. The macro-model is then used in a series of computer experiments to assess the effects on the population and the economy of changes in household preferences for children. The experiments include factual and counterfactual simulations of Canadian historical demographic experience and simulations of alternative future scenarios. The analysis and conclusions have general relevance for countries that have been through a fertility boom-and-bust sequence.

Americas↗
PubMed1983

Potential savings from the adoption of nurse practitioner technology in the Canadian health care system.

An investigation is reported of the potential for reducing aggregate medical costs by the introduction of nurse practitioners into the Canadian health care system to an extent consistent with demonstrated safety and effectiveness. A cost model is developed for this purpose and estimates of its parameters are provided. The cost model is coupled with a demographic projection model and potential cost reductions are simulated over the period 1980-2050, under alternative assumptions. Results suggest that savings could have been in the range 10-15% in 1980 for medical services as a whole, and 16-24% for ambulatory services. The estimated savings percentages are quite insensitive to projected changes in the age structure of the Canadian population.

Canada↗