Biomedical subjects

B Rosner

Publications and source records attributed to B Rosner.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed1992

Obesity and body fat distribution in relation to the incidence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. A prospective cohort study of men in the normative aging study.

The relation between the abdominal accumulation of body fat, total-body adiposity, and blood glucose level and the risk of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus was evaluated prospectively among 1,972 male participants in the Department of Veterans Affairs Normative Aging Study cohort. The risk of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus was assessed by means of the proportional hazards model; 226 cases of diabetes occurred among the 1,972 men (mean age at entry, 41.9 years; range, 22-80 years) over 35,496 person-years of observation. The relation of body mass index to diabetes risk was partly explained by body fat distribution; after adjusting for age, the ratio of abdominal circumference to hip breadth, and cigarette smoking, men in the top tertile for body mass index had a 1.3-fold greater risk of diabetes than did men in the lowest tertile (95% confidence interval 0.9-1.8). Moreover, after adjusting for age, body mass index, and cigarette smoking, men in the top tertile for the ratio of abdominal circumference to hip breadth had a 2.4-fold greater risk of diabetes than did men in the lowest tertile (95% confidence interval 1.7-3.7). When blood glucose was analyzed as a continuous outcome variable, the findings were consistent, i.e., a positive association with abdominal fat independent of total-body adiposity. These results confirm previous reports of a prospective relation between abdominal adiposity and the risk of diabetes and provide prospective evidence of a relation between blood glucose levels and both body fat distribution and obesity.

Abdomen↗

PubMed1992

Correction of logistic regression relative risk estimates and confidence intervals for random within-person measurement error.

Frequently, covariates used in a logistic regression are measured with error. The authors previously described the correction of logistic regression relative risk estimates for measurement error in one or more covariates when a "gold standard" is available for exposure assessment. For some exposures (e.g., serum cholesterol), no gold standard exists, and one must assess measurement error via a reproducibility substudy. In this paper, the authors present measurement error methods for logistic regression when there is error (possibly correlated) in one or more covariates and one has data from both a main study and a reproducibility substudy. Confidence intervals from this procedure reflect error in parameter estimates from both studies. These methods are applied to the Framingham Heart Study, where the 10-year incidence of coronary heart disease is related to several coronary risk factors among 1,731 men disease-free at examination 4. Reproducibility data are obtained from the subgroup of 1,346 men seen at examinations 2 and 3. Estimated odds ratios comparing extreme quintiles for risk factors with substantial error were increased after correction for measurement error (serum cholesterol, 2.2 vs. 2.9; serum glucose, 1.3 vs. 1.5; systolic blood pressure, 2.8 vs. 3.8), but were generally decreased or unchanged for risk factors with little or no error (body mass index, 1.6 vs. 1.6; age 65-69 years vs. 35-44 years, 4.3 vs. 3.8; smoking, 1.7 vs. 1.7).

Adult↗

PubMed1992

Dietary fat and fiber in relation to risk of breast cancer. An 8-year follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: To address the hypotheses that dietary fat increases and fiber decreases the risk of breast cancer. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study with dietary assessment at baseline, using a validated, self-administered food frequency questionnaire. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: 89,494 women in the Nurses' Health Study who were 34 through 59 years of age in 1980 and who were followed up for 8 years (> 95% complete). RESULTS: 1439 incident cases of breast cancer were diagnosed, including 774 among postmenopausal women. After adjustment for age, established risk factors, and total energy intake, we observed no evidence of any positive association between total fat intake and breast cancer incidence (relative risks [RRs] for increasing quintiles of fat intake were 1.0, 0.85, 0.96, 0.91, and 0.90; 95% confidence interval for highest vs lowest quintile, 0.77 to 1.07). Among postmenopausal women alone, corresponding RRs were 1.0, 0.89, 1.00, 0.95, and 0.91. Comparing extreme deciles of total fat intake (> or = 49% vs < 29% of total energy intake), the RR was 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 1.08). A similar absence of any positive association was observed without adjustment for energy intake; for tumors less than 2 cm as well as 2 cm or greater in diameter; for saturated, monounsaturated, and polyunsaturated fat; and after excluding the first 4 years of follow-up. Also, we found no suggestion of any positive association when using a more detailed and precise dietary questionnaire completed in 1984 (666 subsequent cases), even when women consuming less than 25% of energy from fat were used as the comparison group. No suggestion of a protective effect of dietary fiber was observed (RRs for increasing quintiles were 1.0, 0.95, 0.93, 1.02, and 1.02). CONCLUSIONS: These data provide evidence against both an adverse influence of fat intake and a protective effect of fiber consumption by middle-aged women on breast cancer incidence over 8 years. Nevertheless, the positive association between intake of animal fat and risk of colon cancer observed in many studies provides ample reason to limit this source of energy.

Adult↗

PubMed1992

A prospective study of cigarette smoking and risk of cataract in men.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between cigarette smoking and the incidence of cataract. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The design was a prospective cohort study using data from the Physicians' Health Study, a randomized trial of aspirin and beta carotene among 22,071 US male physicians aged 40 to 84 years that began in 1982. This analysis includes the 17,824 physicians who did not report cataract at baseline and did provide complete risk factor information. Based on information reported at baseline, 10% were current smokers, 39% were past smokers, and 51% were never smokers. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: An incident cataract was defined as a self-report confirmed by medical record review to have been first diagnosed after randomization, age-related in origin, and responsible for a decrease in best corrected visual acuity to 20/30 or worse. MAIN RESULTS: During 60 months of follow-up, 557 incident cataracts among 371 participants were confirmed. Compared with never smokers, current smokers of 20 or more cigarettes per day had a statistically significant increase in the risk of cataract (relative risk [RR], 2.16; 95% confidence interval [Cl], 1.46 to 3.20; P less than .001). Similar results were obtained after simultaneously controlling for other potential cataract risk factors in a logistic regression model (RR, 2.05; 95% Cl, 1.38 to 3.05; P less than .001). Among the 557 eyes with cataract, nuclear sclerotic changes were present in 442 while posterior subcapsular changes were present in 204. After controlling for other potential cataract risk factors, current smokers of 20 or more cigarettes per day had statistically significant increases in nuclear sclerosis (RR, 2.24; 95% Cl, 1.47 to 3.41; P less than .001) and posterior subcapsular (RR, 3.17; 95% Cl, 1.81 to 5.53; P less than .001) cataract. Past smokers had an elevated risk of posterior subcapsular (RR, 1.44; 95% Cl, 0.97 to 2.13; P = .07) but not nuclear sclerosis cataract. For current smokers of fewer than 20 cigarettes per day, no increased risks were observed of total, nuclear sclerosis, or posterior subcapsular cataract. CONCLUSIONS: These data provide support for the hypothesis that cigarette smoking increases the risk of developing both nuclear sclerosis and posterior subcapsular cataract.

Adult↗

PubMed1992

A prospective study of cigarette smoking and risk of cataract surgery in women.

OBJECTIVE: To examine prospectively the association between cigarette smoking and the risk of cataract extraction in women. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study beginning in 1980 with 8 years of follow-up. SETTING: United States, multistate. PARTICIPANTS: Registered nurses 45 to 67 years of age and free of diagnosed cancer. There were 50,828 women included in 1980 and others were added as they became 45 years of age. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of senile cataract extraction. RESULTS: We documented 493 incident senile cataracts diagnosed and extracted during 470,302 person-years of follow-up. The age-adjusted relative risk (RR) among women who smoked at least 65 pack-years was 1.63 (95% confidence interval [Cl], 1.18 to 2.26; P for trend, .02). A similar increase in RR was noted when smoking was assessed in terms of number of cigarettes currently smoked or number of cigarettes smoked by past smokers. Results were also similar after adjusting for other potential risk factors for cataract. Smoking was also strongly associated with posterior subcapsular cataract specifically (RR, 2.59; 95% Cl, 1.49 to 4.50 for greater than or equal to 65-pack-year smokers relative to nonsmokers. CONCLUSION: Smoking appears to increase the risk of cataract extraction.

Aged↗

PubMed1992

Nutrient intake and cataract extraction in women: a prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine prospectively the association between dietary intake of vitamins C and E, carotene, and riboflavin and cataract extraction in women. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study beginning in 1980 with eight years of follow up. SETTING: 11 states of the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Female registered nurses who were 45 to 67 years of age. 50,828 women were included in 1980 and others were added as they became 45 years of age. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of extraction of senile cataracts. RESULTS: 493 cataracts were extracted during 470,302 person years of follow up. Intake of carotene and vitamin A was inversely associated with cataract: in multivariate analyses, women in the highest fifth of total vitamin A intake (excluding supplements) had a 39% lower risk of cataract relative to women in the lowest fifth (relative risk 0.61; 95% confidence interval 0.45 to 0.81). Neither riboflavin nor dietary vitamins E or C were associated with cataract in a multivariate analysis. Among specific food items spinach (rather than carrots, the greatest source of beta carotene) was most consistently associated with a lower relative risk. The risk of cataract was 45% lower among women who used vitamin C supplements for 10 or more years(relative risk 0.55 (0.32 to 0.96)), but no association was noted for multivitamin intake. CONCLUSION: Dietary carotenoids, although not necessarily beta carotene, and long term vitamin C supplementation may decrease the risk of cataracts severe enough to require extraction.

Aged↗

PubMed1992

Low-dose aspirin and subsequent peripheral arterial surgery in the Physicians' Health Study.

In the US Physicians' Health Study the early termination of the aspirin arm has provided the opportunity to test the hypothesis that low-dose aspirin (325 mg on alternate days) might affect the subsequent occurrence of peripheral arterial surgery. In the study, a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial among 22,071 healthy US male physicians aged 40-84, there were, during an average of 60.2 months of treatment and follow-up, 56 participants who underwent peripheral arterial surgery (20 aspirin, 36 placebo). The relative risk of peripheral artery surgery in the aspirin group was 0.54 (95% confidence intervals 0.30-0.95; p = 0.03). These data indicate that chronic administration of low-dose aspirin to apparently healthy men reduced the need for peripheral arterial surgery.

Adult↗

PubMed1992

Childhood blood pressure tracking correlations corrected for within-person variability.

The correlation coefficient between initial and subsequent blood pressure (BP) measurements is referred to as the tracking correlation. Childhood BP tracking correlations, although positive, have been considered too low to make accurate predictions for an individual. These correlations, however, can be raised substantially by averaging BP over multiple weekly visits in each year, which partially accounts for within-person variability. In a cohort of 333 school children, we measured BP 3 times on each of 4 successive weekly visits, in each of 4 consecutive years, using a random-zero sphygmomanometer. Approximately 90 per cent of subjects had data for one or more follow-up years, and 75 per cent of subjects who entered in the first year had data for all four years. With a model that allows estimation of correlations and that uses all available longitudinal data, we calculated tracking correlations completely corrected for within-person variability, the statistical equivalent of measuring BP on an infinite number (infinity) of visits and measurements per visit. Age-sex adjusted tracking correlations for 3 years of follow-up based on the means from 1,2,3,4, and infinity visits are, for systolic BP, 0.43, 0.56, 0.62, 0.66, and 0.73, respectively, and for diastolic BP, 0.20, 0.37, 0.46, 0.50, and 0.70, respectively. With longer follow-up, the use of corrected tracking correlations would allow determination of the maximal extent to which childhood BP can predict adult levels, and therefore the usefulness of screening to identify children at high risk of developing hypertension.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1992

Quantitative angiographic and statistical methods to assess serial changes in coronary luminal diameter and implications for atherosclerosis regression trials.

The purpose of this study was (1) to determine a threshold for categorizing individual coronary lesions as either significantly progressing or regressing, (2) to determine whether multiple lesions within individual patients progress at independent rates, and (3) to calculate sample sizes for atherosclerosis regression trials. Seventeen patients with 46 significant lesions (2.7 lesions/patient) underwent repeat coronary arteriography 3.0 years apart. With use of the standard error of the mean change in diameter from initial to repeat catheterization across 5 pairs of consecutive end-diastolic frames, individual lesions were categorized as either significantly (p less than 0.01) progressing or regressing if there was a 0.27 mm change in minimum diameter or a 7.8 percent point change in percent stenosis. The mean diameter change of a sample of lesions can also be analyzed as a continuous variable using either the lesions or the patient as the primary unit of analysis. A lesion-specific analysis can be accomplished using a multiple regression model that accounts for the intraclass correlation (rho) in the degree of change among multiple lesions within individual patients. The intraclass correlations in percent stenosis (rho = 0.01) and minimum diameter (rho = -0.24) were low, indicating that disease progression in different lesions within individual patients is nearly independent. With use of this model, 50 patients per treatment group would permit the detection of a 5.5% difference between treatment group means in the change in minimum diameter and a 2.7% percentage point (not percent) difference in the change in percent stenosis.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Analysis of Variance↗

PubMed1992

Serial changes in blood pressure from adolescence into adulthood.

High blood pressure is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease outcomes in adulthood. Furthermore, numerous longitudinal studies of blood pressure in childhood with length of follow-up from 1 to 17 years indicate that blood pressure levels track over the short term. This study addresses the question of the predictive value of childhood blood pressure readings for adult levels, using repeated blood pressure determinations from a sample of 501 participants in the Fels Longitudinal Study, an ongoing cohort study in southwestern Ohio that began in 1929. A damped autoregressive model indicated tracking correlations from 0.39 (4-year intervals) to 0.24 (20 years) for systolic pressure and 0.37 (4 years) to 0.20 (20 years) for diastolic pressure. These results indicate that tracking of blood pressure persists from age 13 years to age 40 years, which translates into moderate levels of relative risk for adult hypertension (diastolic pressure above 90 mmHg) for adolescents with high normal blood pressure. The estimated relative risks of hypertension at age 35 for white 15-year-olds with a true mean diastolic pressure of 80 mmHg were 1.9 for males and 2.6 for females, relative to 15-year-olds with a true diastolic pressure of 60 mmHg.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1992

Accounting for the correlation between fellow eyes in regression analysis.

Regression techniques that appropriately use all available eyes have infrequently been applied in the ophthalmologic literature, despite advances both in the development of statistical models and in the availability of computer software to fit these models. We considered the general linear model and polychotomous logistic regression approaches of Rosner and the estimating equation approach of Liang and Zeger, applied to both linear and logistic regression. Methods were illustrated with the use of two real data sets: (1) impairment of visual acuity in patients with retinitis pigmentosa and (2) overall visual field impairment in elderly patients evaluated for glaucoma. We discuss the interpretation of coefficients from these models and the advantages of these approaches compared with alternative approaches, such as treating individuals rather than eyes as the unit of analysis, separate regression analyses of right and left eyes, or utilization of ordinary regression techniques without accounting for the correlation between fellow eyes. Specific advantages include enhanced statistical power, more interpretable regression coefficients, greater precision of estimation, and less sensitivity to missing data for some eyes. We concluded that these models should be used more frequently in ophthalmologic research, and we provide guidelines for choosing between alternative models.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1992

Oral contraceptive use and the risk of type 2 (non-insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus in a large prospective study of women.

We examined the association between oral contraceptive use and incidence of Type 2 (non-insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus among 115117 female nurses free of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer in 1976 and followed-up for 12 years. During 1237440 person years of follow-up, 2276 women who provided information on oral contraceptive use were clinically diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes. Women who used oral contraceptives in the past had only a slight and marginally increased relative risk of 1.10 (95% confidence interval 1.01, 1.21) compared to those women who had never used oral contraceptives after controlling for known risk factors of disease. We found no evidence of increased risk with longer duration of use or with shorter interval since last use. Current users did not have an increased risk of Type 2 diabetes (relative risk = 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.46, 1.61) when compared to women who had never used the drug. There was no effect modification by obesity, family history of diabetes, or physical activity. These data suggest that past or current oral contraceptive use does not substantially influence subsequent risk of Type 2 diabetes.

Adult↗

PubMed1992

The effect of aspirin on the risk of stroke in patients with nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation: The BAATAF Study.

Recent randomized trials have consistently demonstrated the marked efficacy of warfarin in reducing the risk of stroke caused by nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation. These trials have provided conflicting evidence on the effect of aspirin. We report the aspirin analysis from the BAATAF study, a trial in which control patients could choose to take aspirin. There we two strokes in 446 person-years with warfarin (annual rate of 0.45%); eight strokes in 206 person-years with aspirin, most at 325 mg per day (annual rate of 3.9%); and five strokes in 271 person-years among patients taking neither aspirin nor warfarin (annual rate of 1.8%). Simultaneously controlling for the other significant determinants of stroke in the BAATAF study (age, mitral annular calcification, and clinical heart disease), the relative rates (95% confidence interval) of stroke were: (1) warfarin/aspirin = 0.135 (0.029 to 0.64); (2) aspirin/(no aspirin and no warfarin) = 1.95 (0.64 to 5.97); and (3) warfarin/(no aspirin and no warfarin) = 0.263 (0.051 to 1.36). Our "treatment received" analysis argues that warfarin is strikingly more effective than aspirin in preventing stroke in nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation.

Aged↗

PubMed1992

Parity and incidence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus.

PURPOSE: To examine prospectively the association between parity and subsequent incidence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM). Most previous studies have not controlled for potential confounding by age and obesity. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, 113,606 United States registered nurses aged 30 to 55 years and free of diagnosed diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, and cancer at baseline were followed for 12 years. Endpoint was incidence of confirmed NIDDM. RESULTS: During 1,278,188 person-years of follow-up, we confirmed 2,310 incident cases of NIDDM. An apparent association between parity and diabetes was observed in unadjusted analyses (relative risk = 1.56 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.27 to 1.91] among women with six or more births compared with that in nulliparous women) (p, trend less than 0.00001). This association was attenuated after adjustment for age (relative risk = 1.19 [CI 0.97 to 1.48], p, trend = 0.06) and was completely abolished after adjustment for both age and body mass index (relative risk = 0.95 [CI 0.75 to 1.19], p, trend = 0.19). Multivariate adjustment for family history of diabetes, age at first birth, hormone use, and other variables did not materially alter these findings. There was no important modifying effect of family history of diabetes on these associations. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a temporary diabetogenic effect of pregnancy, parity is not associated with an increased risk of subsequent clinical NIDDM. These data underscore the importance of control for confounding by age and obesity in evaluating these associations.

Adult↗

PubMed1992

Predictors of smoking relapse among self-quitters: a report from the Normative Aging Study.

We followed 235 adults for one year after a self-initiated attempt to stop smoking cigarettes. Relapse rates were much larger than expected in the early days and weeks after the quit attempt. Approximately 62% had relapsed by 2 weeks after their quit dates. Those who smoked any cigarettes at all in the post-cessation period (i.e., lapsed) had a 95% probability of resuming their regular pattern of smoking subsequently. Shorter periods of abstinence on prior quit attempts, greater pre-cessation consumption of alcoholic beverages, and lower pre-cessation levels of confidence in quitting were related to relapse. In addition, abstainers who reported decreased confidence after cessation concerning their ability to maintain abstinence were more likely to relapse thereafter. The presence of a greater proportion of smokers in the subjects' environment also increased the likelihood of relapse. Demographic variables such as age, gender, and education level did not predict relapse. Likewise, neither baseline psychosocial stress levels, nor post-cessation increases in stress were related prospectively to relapse. Clinical implications of finding are discussed.

Adult↗

PubMed1992

A prospective study of postmenopausal estrogen therapy and subsequent incidence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus.

The potential influence of postmenopausal estrogen therapy on the subsequent development of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) is relatively unexplored, despite postulated effects of these hormones on glucose tolerance. We examined the association between postmenopausal hormone use and the subsequent incidence of NIDDM in a prospective cohort of 21,028 postmenopausal US women aged 30 to 55 years and free of diagnosed diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer in 1976. During 12 years of follow-up (422,991 person-years), we confirmed 1249 cases of NIDDM. Current users of postmenopausal hormones had a relative risk of NIDDM of 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 0.96) as compared with never users, after adjustment for age and body mass index (BMI). Past users of these hormones had an age- and BMI-adjusted relative risk of 1.07 (0.93 to 1.23). These results were not materially altered by multivariate adjustment for age, BMI, family history of diabetes, and coronary risk factors. Comparable results were obtained when the analysis was restricted to symptomatic NIDDM as the outcome. We observed no appreciable modification of these associations by family history of diabetes or category of BMI. Duration of current or past use of postmenopausal hormones and dose of conjugated estrogen were not significantly related to incidence of NIDDM. Type of hormone (estrogen alone, progesterone alone, or combination) also did not appear to influence NIDDM risk. These prospective data indicate that postmenopausal hormone therapy is unlikely to be associated with a material increase in the incidence of NIDDM among women.

Adult↗

PubMed1992

Diet and risk of basal cell carcinoma of the skin in a prospective cohort of women.

We conducted a prospective study of diet in relation to the incidence of basal cell carcinoma of the skin in a cohort of 73,366 women who were 34 to 59 years old in 1980 and without previous skin or other cancer. During 4 years of follow-up, 771 incident cases of basal cell carcinoma were diagnosed. When adjusted for other risk factors, women in the highest quintile of energy intake were at higher risk of basal cell carcinoma compared with those in the lowest quintile (relative risk, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.60). No significant associations were observed between risk of basal cell carcinoma and energy-adjusted intake of dietary fat, carotenoids with vitamin A activity, and retinol, vitamin C, vitamin D, and vitamin E, either with or without supplements. Use of specific vitamin A, C, D, or E supplements, or multivitamins, did not materially alter risk. Although the period of follow-up was relatively short, these data are most consistent with no major role for these nutrients in the etiology of basal cell carcinoma.

Adult↗

PubMed1992

Diet and risk of clinical diabetes in women.

To determine the relations of diet with risk of clinical noninsulin-dependent diabetes, we analyzed data from a prospective cohort of 84360 US women. During 6 y of follow-up we identified 702 definite incident cases. Because body mass index (BMI) is a powerful risk factor for diabetes, we examined the relations of fat (including type), fiber, sucrose, and other components of diet to risk of diabetes, among women with BMIs (in kg/m2) less than 29 kg/m2. After controlling for body mass index, previous weight change, and alcohol intake, we observed no associations between intakes of energy, protein, sucrose, carbohydrate, or fiber and risk of diabetes. Compared with women in the lowest quintile of energy-adjusted intake, and relative risks (and tests for trend) for those in the highest quintile were 0.61 (P trend = 0.03) for vegetable fat, 0.62 (P trend = 0.008) for potassium, 0.70 (P trend = 0.005) for calcium, and 0.68 (P trend = 0.02) for magnesium. These inverse associations were attenuated among obese women (BMIs greater than or equal to 29).

Adult↗