From family trials to genomic mate allocation: statistical and genomic strategies to accelerate sugarcane genetic improvement.
Sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) underpins global sugar and bioenergy supply and is increasingly valued as a renewable biomass feedstock. Sustained improvement in commercial traits and resilience is constrained by long breeding cycles, clonal propagation, multi-stage testing, and a highly polyploid, heterozygous, and frequently aneuploid genome with substantial non-additive genetic variation. Genomic selection has demonstrated value for predicting elite-clone performance, yet its operational use remains limited at earlier decision points, including family selection, parent evaluation, and cross design. This review examines the biological, statistical, and genomic factors that shape these decisions, with emphasis on the Australian breeding context based on progeny assessment trials (PATs), clonal assessment trials (CATs), and final assessment trials (FATs). We evaluate challenges arising from family plot means, the use of different full-sib samples as nominal family replicates, spatial heterogeneity, competition, genotype-by-environment interaction, and the partitioning of additive and non-additive effects. We also assess the integration of pedigree and genomic relationship, genotype representation, allele-dosage estimation, aneuploidy, genomic prediction models, and training-population design. We then consider genomic prediction of cross performance and constrained mate allocation as approaches for improving expected family performance, accounting for cross-specific non-additive effects and managing relatedness. We propose a decision-centred framework that links family and clonal data across breeding stages, tracks the propagation of information and uncertainty, and supports parent recycling and cross allocation. We conclude with a practical research agenda for stage-integrated mixed-model and single-step analyses that connect early family evaluation with genomic prediction and cross-level decision support in sugarcane breeding.