Understanding the toxicity of buried radioactive waste.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Bernard L Cohen.
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The oral ingestion toxicities of buried high level radioactive waste from nuclear power plants and of the natural radioactivity in the ground are calculated and expressed as cancer doses, the number of fatal cancers predicted by the linear no-threshold theory if all of the material were fed to people. Unless the size of the U.S. nuclear power industry is greatly expanded, there will probably never be more than 2 trillion cancer doses (CD) in U.S. repositories, as compared with 31 trillion CD in the ground above them. Measurements of the uranium, thorium, and radium in human bodies indicate that the latter cause 500 deaths per year in U.S. The great majority of this material is derived from the top few meters of soil that are penetrated by plant roots. It is concluded that the annual number of U.S. deaths from buried nuclear wastes will be about 1.0 (or less), orders of magnitude less than the number from coal burning electricity generation, the principal competitor of nuclear power.
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A probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) for a high-level radioactive waste repository is very important since it gives an estimate of its health impacts, allowing comparisons to be made with the health impacts of competing technologies. However, it is extremely difficult to develop a credible PRA for a specific repository site because of large uncertainties in future climate, hydrology, geological processes, etc. At best, such a PRA would not be understandable to the public. An alternative proposed here is to develop a PRA for an average U.S. site, taking all properties of the site to be the U.S. average. The results are equivalent to the average results for numerous randomly selected sites. Such a PRA is presented here; it is easy to understand, and it is not susceptible to substantial uncertainty. Applying the results to a specific repository site then requires only a simple, intuitively acceptable "leap of faith" in assuming that with large expenditures of effort and money, experts can select a site that would be at least as secure as a randomly selected site.
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India has a diverse caecilian fauna, including representatives of three of the six currently recognized families, the Caeciliidae, Ichthyophiidae, the endemic Uraeotyphlidae, but previous molecular phylogenetic studies of caecilians have not included sequences for any Indian caecilians. Partial 12S and 16S mitochondrial gene sequences were obtained for a single representative of each of the caecilian families found in India and aligned against previously reported sequences for 13 caecilian species. The resulting alignment (16 taxa, 1200 sites, of which 288 cannot be aligned unambiguously) was analyzed using parsimony, maximum-likelihood, and distance methods. As judged by bootstrap proportions, decay indices, and leaf stabilities, well-supported relationships of the Indian caecilians are recovered from the alignment. The data (1) corroborate the hypothesis, based on morphology, that the Uraeotyphlidae and Ichthyophiidae are sister taxa, (2) recover a monophyletic Ichthyophiidae, including Indian and South East Asian representatives, and (3) place the Indian caeciliid Gegeneophis ramaswamii as the sister group of the caeciliid caecilians of the Seychelles. Rough estimates of divergence times suggest an origin of the Uraeotyphlidae and Ichthyophiidae while India was isolated from Laurasia and Africa and are most consistent with an Indian origin of these families and subsequent dispersal of ichthyophiids into South East Asia.
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