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Bobby Milstein

Publications and source records attributed to Bobby Milstein.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

Understanding diabetes population dynamics through simulation modeling and experimentation.

Health planners in the Division of Diabetes Translation and others from the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention used system dynamics simulation modeling to gain a better understanding of diabetes population dynamics and to explore implications for public health strategy. A model was developed to explain the growth of diabetes since 1980 and portray possible futures through 2050. The model simulations suggest characteristic dynamics of the diabetes population, including unintended increases in diabetes prevalence due to diabetes control, the inability of diabetes control efforts alone to reduce diabetes-related deaths in the long term, and significant delays between primary prevention efforts and downstream improvements in diabetes outcomes.

Diabetes Complications↗

Practical challenges of systems thinking and modeling in public health.

OBJECTIVES: Awareness of and support for systems thinking and modeling in the public health field are growing, yet there are many practical challenges to implementation. We sought to identify and describe these challenges from the perspectives of practicing public health professionals. METHODS: A systems-based methodology, concept mapping, was used in a study of 133 participants from 2 systems-based public health initiatives (the Initiative for the Study and Implementation of Systems and the Syndemics Prevention Network). This method identified 100 key challenges to implementation of systems thinking and modeling in public health work. RESULTS: The project resulted in a map identifying 8 categories of challenges and the dynamic interactions among them. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation by public health professionals of the 8 simple rules we derived from the clusters in the map identified here will help to address challenges and improve the organization of systems that protect the public's health.

Humans↗

Setting objectives for community and systems change: an application of concept mapping for planning a statewide health improvement initiative.

The Hawaii Department of Health (HDOH) used concept mapping techniques to engage local stakeholders and national subject area experts in defining the community and system factors that affect individuals' behaviors related to tobacco, nutrition, and physical activity. Over eight working days, project participants brainstormed 496 statements (edited to a final set of 90), which were then sorted and rated for their importance and feasibility. A sequence of multivariate statistical analyses, including multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analysis, generated maps and figures that were then interpreted by project stakeholders. The results were immediately incorporated into an official plan, approved by the governor and state legislature, recommending how Hawaii's tobacco settlement resources could be used to create sustainable changes in population health. The results also provide empirical support for the premise that both community and systems factors ought to be considered when planning comprehensive health improvement initiatives.

Cluster Analysis↗