Biomedical subjects

Bruce E Kendall

Publications and source records attributed to Bruce E Kendall.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

Consequences of heterogeneity in survival probability in a population of Florida scrub-jays.

1. Using data on breeding birds from a 35-year study of Florida scrub-jays Aphelocoma coerulescens (Bosc 1795), we show that survival probabilities are structured by age, birth cohort, and maternal family, but not by sex. Using both accelerated failure time (AFT) and Cox proportional hazard models, the data are best described by models incorporating variation among birth cohorts and greater mortality hazard with increasing age. AFT models using Weibull distributions with the shape parameter > 1 were always the best-fitting models. 2. Shared frailty models allowing for family structure greatly reduce model deviance. The best-fitting models included a term for frailty shared by maternal families. 3. To ask how long a data set must be to reach qualitatively the same conclusions, we repeated the analyses for all possible truncated data sets of 2 years in length or greater. Length of the data set affects the parameter estimates, but not the qualitative conclusions. In all but three of 337 truncated data sets the best-fitting models pointed to same conclusions as the full data set. Shared frailty models appear to be quite robust. 4. The data are not adequate for testing hypotheses as to whether variation in frailty is heritable. 5. Substantial structured heterogeneity for survival exists in this population. Such structured heterogeneity has been shown to have substantial effects in reducing demographic stochasticity.

Aging↗

PubMed2006

Plant-soil feedbacks and invasive spread.

Plant invaders have been suggested to change soil microbial communities and biogeochemical cycling in ways that can feedback to benefit themselves. In this paper, we ask when do these feedbacks influence the spread of exotic plants. Because answering this question is empirically challenging, we show how ecological theory on 'pushed' and 'pulled' invasions can be used to examine the problem. We incorporate soil feedbacks into annual plant invasion models, derive the conditions under which such feedbacks affect spread, and support our approach with simulations. We show that in homogeneous landscapes, strong positive feedbacks can influence spreading velocity for annual invaders, but that empirically documented feedbacks are not strong enough to do so. Moreover, to influence spread, invaders must modify the soil environment over a spatial scale larger than is biologically realistic. Though unimportant for annual invader spread in our models, feedbacks do affect invader density and potential impact. We discuss how future research might consider the way landscape structure, dispersal patterns, and the time scales over which plant-soil feedbacks develop regulate the effects of such feedbacks on invader spread.

Models, Theoretical↗

PubMed2005

Correctly estimating how environmental stochasticity influences fitness and population growth.

Increased temporal variance in life-history traits is generally predicted to decrease individual fitness and population growth. We show that a widely used result of stochastic sensitivity analysis that bolsters this generality is flawed because it ignores the effects of correlations between vital rates. Considering the effects of these correlations (although ignoring autocorrelations), we show that the apparently simple relationship between vital rate variance and fitness can be considerably more complex than previously thought. In particular, the previously estimated negative sensitivities of fitness or population growth to variance in a vital rate can be either enhanced by positive correlations between rates or reversed by negative correlations, even to the point that variability in a rate can increase fitness or population growth. We apply this new sensitivity calculation to data from the desert tortoise and discuss its interpretation in light of the factors generating vital rate correlations.

Animals↗

PubMed2000

Dispersal, Environmental Correlation, and Spatial Synchrony in Population Dynamics.

Many species exhibit widespread spatial synchrony in population fluctuations. This pattern is of great ecological interest and can be a source of concern when the species is rare or endangered. Both dispersal and spatial correlations in the environment have been implicated as possible causes of this pattern, but these two factors have rarely been studied in combination. We develop a spatially structured population model, simple enough to obtain analytic solutions for the population correlation, that incorporates both dispersal and environmental correlation. We ask whether these two synchronizing factors contribute additively to the total spatial population covariance. We find that there is always an interaction between these two factors and that this interaction is small only when one or both of the environmental correlation and the dispersal rate are small. The interaction is opposite in sign to the environmental correlation; so, in the normal case of positive environmental correlation across sites, the population synchrony will be lower than predicted by simply adding the effects of dispersal and environmental correlation. We also find that population synchrony declines as the strength of population regulation increases. These results indicate that dispersal and environmental correlation need to be considered in combination as explanations for observed patterns of population synchrony.

Moran effect↗