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C B Travis

Publications and source records attributed to C B Travis.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Knowledge-based representations of risk beliefs.

Beliefs about risks associated with two risk agents, AIDS and toxic waste, are modeled using knowledge-based methods and elicited from subjects via interactive computer technology. A concept net is developed to organize subject responses concerning the consequences of the risk agents. It is found that death and adverse personal emotional and sociological consequences are most associated with AIDS. Toxic waste is most associated with environmental problems. These consequence profiles are quite dissimilar, although past work in risk perception would have judged the risk agents as being quite similar. Subjects frequently used causal semantics to represent their beliefs and "% of time" instead of "probability" to represent likelihoods. The news media is the most prevalent source of risk information although experiences of acquaintances appear more credible. The results suggest that "broadly based risk" communication may be ineffective because people differ in their conceptual representation of risk beliefs. In general, the knowledge-based approach to risk perception representation has great potential to increase our understanding of important risk topics.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Medical decision making and elective surgery: the case of hysterectomy.

Review and analyses of three sources of data are presented indicating that 25% of hysterectomies are elective. Annual mortality associated with elective hysterectomy is estimated to be 319, or about 12,122 woman years. Cost-benefit analyses of mortality, life expectancy, morbidity, psychological sequelae, as well as dollar expenditures, reveal high costs and relatively limited benefits. Explanations for this apparent anomaly in decision making are explored and include economic incentives, system structure, sexism, and cancer prophylaxis. Principles of risk perception are discussed in terms of potential biases associated with the cancer prophylaxis motive. It is suggested that physicians' judgements of risk may be more salient to the decision process than those of prospective patients.

Adult↗