The incidences of lung cancer and breast cancer in women in Glasgow.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to C R Gillis.
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In recent years a strong case has been made in support of a viral aetiology for at least some primary hepatocellular carcinoma (PHC) in areas of low incidence. By pooling routinely collected cancer registration and infection data, study of the relationship between hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and the incidence of PHC in Scotland over the period 1972-1985 has confirmed this view. Over this period the incidence of PHC in men increased, there was a relationship between the incidence of notification of HBV infection and that of hepatocellular carcinoma in different parts of the country, and an increased risk attached to those chronically infected with the virus. Given the recent introduction of lower cost yeast derived vaccines, there may now be more scope for prevention both of primary liver cancer and of other liver disease.
Considerable public concern exists about the effects of exposure to asbestos both at the workplace and in the general environment. In addition, the recording of mesothelioma in health registers is questionable both in terms of accuracy and completeness. This paper compares nine different sources of data for mesothelioma in an attempt to establish the true incidence of the disease in the geographical area of the Greater Glasgow Health Board between 1981 and 1984. Although 113 cases were identified, no single source identified more than 86 per cent of this total, thus presenting a case for a special mesothelioma register. A questionnaire-based study of the occupational exposures and residential histories of the cases was also carried out. It confirmed the findings of similar studies in that mesothelioma occurs predominantly in those exposed by reason of their occupation. No relationship with place of residence was apparent independent of occupation.
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UNLABELLED: OBJECTIVE-To assess the risk of cardiorespiratory symptoms and mortality in non-smokers who were passively exposed to environmental smoke. DESIGN: Prospective study of cohort from general population first screened between 1972 and 1976 and followed up for an average of 11.5 years, with linkage of data from participants in the same household. SETTING: Renfrew and Paisely, adjacent burghs in urban west Scotland. SUBJECTS: 15,399 Men and women (80% of all those aged 45-64 resident in Renfrew or Paisley) comprised the original cohort; 7997 attended for multiphasic screening with a cohabitee. Passive smoking and control groups were defined on the basis of a lifelong non-smoking index case and whether the cohabitee had ever smoked or never smoked. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Cardiorespiratory signs and symptoms and mortality. RESULTS: Each of the cardiorespiratory symptoms examined produced relative risks greater than 1.0 (though none were significant) for passive smokers compared with controls. Adjusted forced expiratory volume in one second was significantly lower in passive smokers than controls. All cause mortality was higher in passive smokers than controls (rate ratio 1.27 (95% confidence interval 0.95 to 1.70)), as were all causes of death related to smoking (rate ratio 1.30 (0.91 to 1.85] and mortality from lung cancer (rate ratio 2.41 (0.45 to 12.83)) and ischaemic heart disease (rate ratio 2.01 (1.21 to 3.35)). When passive smokers were divided into high and low exposure groups on the basis of the amount smoked by their cohabitees those highly exposed had higher rates of symptoms and death. CONCLUSION: Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke cannot be regarded as a safe involuntary habit.
The relation between plasma cholesterol concentration and mortality from coronary heart disease, incidence of and mortality from cancer, and all cause mortality was studied in a general population aged 45-64 living in the west of Scotland. Seven thousand men (yielding 653 deaths from coronary heart disease, 630 new cases of cancer, and 463 deaths from cancer) and 8262 women (322 deaths from coronary heart disease, 554 new cases of cancer, and 395 deaths from cancer) were examined initially in 1972-6 and followed up for an average of 12 years. All cause mortality was not related to plasma cholesterol concentration. This was largely a consequence of a positive relation between cholesterol values and mortality from coronary heart disease being balanced by inverse relations between cholesterol and cancer and between cholesterol and other causes of death. These changes were highly significant for coronary heart disease and cancer in men and significant for coronary heart disease and other causes of death in women. The inverse association between cholesterol concentration and cancer in men was strongest for lung cancer, was not merely a function of the age at which a subject died, was present for the incidence of cancer as well as mortality from cancer, and persisted when new cases or deaths occurring within the first four years of follow up were excluded from the analysis.
Relationships between cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and breathlessness, a definition of chronic bronchitis, and pulmonary function are investigated among men in two employed populations (17,717 London civil servants and 4904 Scottish workers) and in two communities (844 men in Tecumseh, Michigan and 6859 men in Renfrew and Paisley Burghs, Scotland). Men are aged 40-64 years at entry in all studies except Renfrew-Paisley, where they are aged 45-64 years. Length of follow-up ranges from 6 to 16 years. Age and smoking habits were controlled for in all analyses. Chronic phlegm production is not significantly associated with CVD mortality, and 'chronic bronchitis' is significantly associated with mortality only in the employed populations. Low FEV1 is significantly associated with CVD mortality only in the Whitehall study; however, the rate ratios are above one in all studies. Breathlessness is significantly associated with CVD mortality in all studies. These associations between CVD mortality and 'chronic bronchitis', low FEV1, and breathlessness persist after also controlling for employment grade, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, ECG changes, plasma cholesterol level, body mass index and diabetes. Only the associations between breathlessness and mortality persist after further controlling for low FEV1 and myocardial ischaemia. The rate ratios between breathlessness and mortality are about two for all studies. It is concluded that in these populations, breathlessness is an independent and major predictor of CVD mortality.
The relationship between survival and 25 clinical and histologic variables was studied in 195 patients (171 women, 24 men) who satisfied stringent criteria for the diagnosis of primary biliary cirrhosis. The mean duration of follow-up was 6 yr (range 0-17). One hundred and sixteen patients died, 84% as the result of liver disease and 16% from nonhepatic causes. Using the Kaplan-Meier estimate, we calculated the mortality from liver disease to be 40% after 5 yr and 60% after 10 yr. Ascites, serum bilirubin level, variceal hemorrhage, and age were identified as independent clinical risk factors, and extent of hepatic fibrosis, bilirubinostasis, and Mallory's hyalin were identified as independent histologic risk factors correlating with reduced survival.
Time trends in mortality from Hodgkin's disease have been studied in Great Britain for the 70-year period, 1911-1980, and incidence in Scotland since 1959. In both Scotland and England and Wales, in each sex, mortality from Hodgkin's disease rose steadily from 1911 until 1970 and thereafter dropped substantially; the greatest fall was apparent in Scottish males. While mortality rates continue to decline in Scotland the incidence has remained fairly constant over the last 25 years suggesting a major change in prognosis for this disease. The introduction of effective chemotherapy and improved techniques of radiotherapy appear to have improved prognosis sufficiently, and to have been made adequately widely available, as to influence overall mortality rates at a national level as well as at the level of the clinical trial. No such improvement in prognosis, however, explains the declines observed in mortality rates among children of each sex in both areas which have taken place since the 1930s. In view of the current knowledge of the aetiology of Hodgkin's disease this fall may have been brought about by changes in socioeconomic factors.
Altogether 656 male lung cancer cases and 1312 age and sex matched controls were interviewed between 1976 and 1981 in a case-control study of cigarette smoking habits and lung cancer in Glasgow and the West of Scotland, an area with the highest recorded incidence in the world. The relative risk of lung cancer increased significantly for smokers whose consumption was below 20 cigarettes per day but did not rise significantly in those who smoked more than 20 cigarettes per day. Other smoking characteristics such as inhalation and tar yields of brands smoked did not explain this finding. Additionally, the relative risks observed at all levels of cigarette consumption were low in comparison with those in the published literature. By constructing an index of cigarette exposure which included the tar yields of brands smoked, an assessment of the risk of lung cancer in relation to tar exposure independent of amount smoked was derived. Only in smokers of less than 15 cigarettes per day was there a statistically significant reduction in risk of lung cancer associated with lower levels of tar yield.
A general population cohort of 7055 men aged 45-64 and resident in Renfrew and Paisley, two urban burghs in the West of Scotland, has been followed for 10 1/2 years. Analysis of the cigarette smoking and lung cancer (incidence and mortality) relation has been undertaken in order to establish whether unusual results found in a case-control study of cigarette smoking and lung cancer in the adjacent city of Glasgow could be confirmed. Lung cancer incidence and mortality rates increased markedly for exposure categories up to an average consumption of 15-24 cigarettes per day. Above this level the rates increased only marginally. Expressing these rates relative to that estimated for the never-smoked group and comparing them with the relative risks estimated in the case-control study revealed a similarity in terms of both the shape and the level of the dose-response relation. Comparison of the lung cancer rates found in this cohort with those observed in other cohort studies in the literature (UK doctors, US Veterans, and American Cancer Society volunteers) suggested that the West of Scotland rates were substantially higher at all levels of cigarette exposure.
The relationship between peptic ulceration and gastric carcinoma has been examined using data from two large autopsy surveys. The first consisted of over 13,000 autopsies performed in a single hospital over a 20-year period and analysed retrospectively; the second was a prospective series of over 7000 autopsies carried out at 17 centres during a single year. In both, a lower than expected occurrence of coexistent gastric cancer was found in subjects with pathologic evidence of active or past gastric and duodenal ulceration. A statistical association between chronic gastric ulcer and lung cancer was noted. This study has failed to identify an increased risk of gastric carcinoma in patients with chronic gastric ulcer.
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The occurrence of extrahepatic malignancy was studied in 195 unselected patients who satisfied predetermined biochemical, immunological, and histological criteria for the diagnosis of primary biliary cirrhosis. The incidence of breast cancer in women with primary biliary cirrhosis was found to be significantly higher than in an age and sex matched control population from the same well defined geographical area (p less than 0.0015). The association of breast cancer and primary biliary cirrhosis remains unexplained, though diminished immunological surveillance, fat soluble vitamin deficiency, or endocrine dysfunction may play a part.
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Current concern over the carcinogenic potential of cytotoxic drugs and photochemotherapy used in the management of psoriasis increases the need for an accurate assessment of the 'background' incidence of carcinoma in psoriatics not receiving these modalities. This study compares the observed incidence of carcinoma in 719 tar-treated psoriatics with that expected, based on data from the West of Scotland Cancer Registry. No increase in malignancy was found in psoriasis over that expected in the general population.
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