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Chia-Ling Chang

Publications and source records attributed to Chia-Ling Chang.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

Uncertainty in watershed response predictions induced by spatial variability of precipitation.

Negligence to consider the spatial variability of rainfall could result in serious errors in model outputs. The objective of this study was to examine the uncertainty of both runoff and pollutant transport predictions due to the input errors of rainfall. This study used synthetic data to represent the "true" rainfall pattern, instead of interpolated precipitation. It was conducted on a synthetic case area having a total area of 20 km(2) with ten subbasins. Each subbasin has one rainfall gauge with synthetic precipitation records. Six rainfall storms with varied spatial distribution were generated. The average rainfall was obtained from all of the ten gauges by the arithmetic average method. The input errors of rainfall were induced by the difference between the actual rainfall pattern and estimated average rainfall. The results show that spatial variability of rainfall can cause uncertainty in modeling outputs of hydrologic, which would be transport to pollutant export predictions, when uniformity of rainfall is assumed. Since rainfall is essential information for predicting watershed responses, it is important to consider the properties of rainfall, particularly spatial rainfall variability, in the application of hydrologic and water quality models.

Environmental Monitoring↗

Role of geographic information system (GIS) in watershed simulation by WinVAST model.

The uncertainty of modeling input will increase the simulation error, and this situation always happens in a model without user-friendly interface. WinVAST model, developed by the University of Virginia in 2003, treats an entire multi-catchment by a tree-view structure. Its extra computer programs can connect geographic information system (GIS). Model users can prepare all the necessary information in ArcGIS. Extracting information from GIS interface can not only decrease the inconvenience of data input, but also lower the uncertainty due to data preparation. The Daiyuku Creek and Qupoliao Creek in the Fei-tsui reservoir watershed in Northern Taiwan provided the setting for the case study reported herein. The required information, including slope, stream length, subbasin area, soil type and land-use condition, for WinVAST model should be prepared in a Microsoft Access database, which is the project file of WinVAST with extension mdb. In ArcGIS interface, when the soil layer, land-use layer, and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) map are prepared, all the watershed information can be created as well. This study compared the simulation results from automatically generated input and manual input. The results show that the relative simulation error resulting from the rough process of data input can be around 30% in runoff simulation, and even reach 70% in non-point source pollution (NPSP) simulation. It could conclude that GIS technology is significant for predicting watershed responses by WinVAST model, because it can efficiently reduce the uncertainty induced by input errors.

Computer Simulation↗

The parameter optimization in the inverse distance method by genetic algorithm for estimating precipitation.

The inverse distance method, one of the commonly used methods for analyzing spatial variation of rainfall, is flexible if the order of distances in the method is adjustable. By applying the genetic algorithm (GA), the optimal order of distances can be found to minimize the difference between estimated and measured precipitation data. A case study of the Feitsui reservoir watershed in Taiwan is described in the present paper. The results show that the variability of the order of distances is small when the topography of rainfall stations is uniform. Moreover, when rainfall characteristic is uniform, the horizontal distance between rainfall stations and interpolated locations is the major factor influencing the order of distances. The results also verify that the variable-order inverse distance method is more suitable than the arithmetic average method and the Thiessen Polygons method in describing the spatial variation of rainfall. The efficiency and reliability of hydrologic modeling and hence of general water resource management can be significantly improved by more accurate rainfall data interpolated by the variable-order inverse distance method.

Algorithms↗

Interpolating precipitation and its relation to runoff and non-point source pollution.

When rainfall spatially varies, complete rainfall data for each region with different rainfall characteristics are very important. Numerous interpolation methods have been developed for estimating unknown spatial characteristics. However, no interpolation method is suitable for all circumstances. In this study, several methods, including the arithmetic average method, the Thiessen Polygons method, the traditional inverse distance method, and the modified inverse distance method, were used to interpolate precipitation. The modified inverse distance method considers not only horizontal distances but also differences between the elevations of the region with no rainfall records and of its surrounding rainfall stations. The results show that when the spatial variation of rainfall is strong, choosing a suitable interpolation method is very important. If the rainfall is uniform, the precipitation estimated using any interpolation method would be quite close to the actual precipitation. When rainfall is heavy in locations with high elevation, the rainfall changes with the elevation. In this situation, the modified inverse distance method is much more effective than any other method discussed herein for estimating the rainfall input for WinVAST to estimate runoff and non-point source pollution (NPSP). When the spatial variation of rainfall is random, regardless of the interpolation method used to yield rainfall input, the estimation errors of runoff and NPSP are large. Moreover, the relationship between the relative error of the predicted runoff and predicted pollutant loading of SS is high. However, the pollutant concentration is affected by both runoff and pollutant export, so the relationship between the relative error of the predicted runoff and the predicted pollutant concentration of SS may be unstable.

Forecasting↗