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Chris J Wild

Publications and source records attributed to Chris J Wild.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Secondary analysis of case-control data.

We extend the discussion of Lee et al. and others on methods for performing secondary analyses of case-control sampled data and carry out an extensive investigation of efficiency and robustness. We find that, with the exception of the 'analyse-the-controls-only' strategy for populations in which cases are rare, ad hoc methods in common usage often lead to extremely misleading conclusions and that it is not possible to tell in advance when this will happen. Weighted likelihood and semi-parametric maximum likelihood methods are justified theoretically. We find that semi-parametric maximum likelihood can be as much as twice as efficient as the weighted method, but is subject to bias in estimating parameters of interest when the nuisance models this method requires have been mis-specified. The weighted method needs no nuisance models and thus is robust in this regard, but we cannot tell when it is going to be very inefficient without sophisticated modelling as through the SPML method. Practitioners should routinely use both methods and will often have to weigh up the practical consequences of severe inefficiency and lack of robustness in the context of their enquiries.

Bias↗

A randomized placebo-controlled trial of a school-based depression prevention program.

OBJECTIVE: To conduct a placebo-controlled study of the effectiveness of a universal school-based depression prevention program. METHOD: Three hundred ninety-two students age 13 to 15 from two schools were randomized to intervention (RAP-Kiwi) and placebo programs run by teachers. RAP-Kiwi was an 11-session manual-based program derived from cognitive-behavioral therapy. The placebo was similar but with cognitive components removed. Outcomes were self-rated depression scales, the Reynolds Adolescent Depression Scale (RADS), and the Beck Depression Inventory II (BDI-II). Follow-up was to 18 months. Analysis was done on an intent-to-treat basis. RESULTS: Immediately after the intervention, depression scores were reduced significantly more by RAP-Kiwi than by placebo, with a mean difference in change from baseline between groups of 1.5 on BDI-II (CI > 0.38, p =.01) and 2.24 on RADS (CI > 0.22, p =.04). Categorical analysis confirmed significant clinical benefit with an absolute risk reduction of 3% (95% CI, 1-11%, McNemar chi, p =.03), with the "number needed to treat" for short-term benefit of 33. Group differences in depression scores averaged across time to 18 months were significant on RADS but not on BDI-II. Retention rates were 91% at 6 months and 72% at 18 months. CONCLUSIONS: The RAP-Kiwi program is a potentially effective public health measure. Confirmation of effectiveness measuring episodes of depressive illness and broader measures of adjustment is warranted.

Adolescent↗