Biomedical subjects

Cláudia Torres Codeço

Publications and source records attributed to Cláudia Torres Codeço.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2005

Experiments with mathematical models to simulate hepatitis A population dynamics under different levels of endemicity.

Heterogeneous access to sanitation services is a characteristic of communities in Brazil. This heterogeneity leads to different patterns of hepatitis A endemicity: areas with low infection rates have higher probability of outbreaks, and areas with higher infection rates have high prevalence and low risk of outbreaks. Here we develop a mathematical model to study the effect of variable exposure to infection on the epidemiological dynamics of hepatitis A. Differential equations were used to simulate population dynamics and were numerically solved using the software Stella. The model uses parameters from serological surveys in the Greater Metropolitan Rio de Janeiro, in areas with different sanitation conditions. Computer simulation experiments show that the range of infection rates observed in these communities are characteristic of high and low levels of hepatitis A endemicity. We also found that the functional relationship between sanitation and exposure to infection is an important component of the model. The analysis of the public health impact of partial sanitation requires a better understanding of this relationship.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2003

[The resurgence of pertussis in developed countries: a problem for Brazil as well?].

Pertussis is currently considered an important public health problem in developed countries. In most of these countries, mass immunization for pertussis was initiated in the 1950s and was followed by a marked decrease in disease incidence. In the 1970s, pertussis was apparently under control in countries were vaccine coverage was maintained high. However, in the last two decades of the 20th century, the number of reported cases increased in all age groups, including adolescents and adults, indicating resurgence of the disease. This brief note aims to present the possible reasons for resurgence of this disease and to discuss the prospects of its future dynamics in Brazil. There has been no evidence to date for the resurgence of pertussis in Brazil. However, since mass immunization in Brazil began only in the 1980s, one cannot rule out the possibility that pertussis will resurge in the near future. Therefore, it is important that public health services closely monitor the epidemiological situation of pertussis in order, if necessary, to rapidly update the current immunization strategy.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2003

Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil. Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. In this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for Brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (DEN-4) in Rio de Janeiro city. Our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. To deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. Using the Latin Hypercube Sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. We conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. The spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. At last, we conclude that Rio de Janeiro is at risk of a DEN-4 invasion. Finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.

Aedes↗