[A physiological development time-based simulation model for cotton development stages and square- and boll formation].
In this study, three cotton varieties (CRI 36, CRI 35 and CRI 41) were planted in Nanjing, Anyang, Baoding and Shihezi, respectively, in 2002, and the dynamic relationships between their development and environmental factors were analyzed. Based on this, a simulation model for cotton development stages and square-and boll development was built in terms of physiological development time (PDT). In calculating relative thermal effectiveness, the effect of diurnal temperature differences in different regions on cotton development was incorporated, and the enhancement of plastic mulching on air temperature was quantified. To simulate development stages, the initial fruiting node index (IFIN), sunlight duration factor (FSH), and solar radiation index on fruiting branch (IFBR) were introduced, besides earliness factor of a given genotype. The validation of the model with the data obtained from different years, ecological zones, genotypes, and cultivation practices indicated a high goodness of fitness between the simulated results and observed values. The root mean square error (RMSE) between simulated and observed days from sowing to emergence, emergence to squaring, anthesis to boll opening, and sowing to boll opening was 0.9, 2.2, 1.7, and 2.1 d, respectively, with a mean of 2.1 d, and in all plant sites, the RMSE between simulated and observed days from squaring to boll opening was 1.8-3.7 d, and that from squaring to opening was 4.6-5.8 d.