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D J Holman

Publications and source records attributed to D J Holman.

11 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Ovulation detection methods for urinary hormones: precision, daily and intermittent sampling and a combined hierarchical method.

BACKGROUND: We evaluate the performance of ovulation detection methods and present new approaches, including evaluation of methods for precision, combining multiple markers into a hierarchical system and using ovulation markers in intermittent sampling designs. METHODS: With serum LH peak day as the 'gold standard' of ovulation, we estimated accuracy and precision of ovulation day algorithms using 30 ovulatory menstrual cycles with daily urinary and serum hormones and transvaginal ultrasound. Sensitivity and specificity for estimating the presence of ovulation were tested using visually assessed ovulatory (30) and anovulatory (22) cycles. RESULTS: Sensitivity and specificity ranged from 70 to 100% for estimating presence of ovulation with twice-per-cycle, weekly, twice weekly, every-other-day and daily specimens. A combined hierarchical method estimated ovulation day using daily specimens within +/-2 days of the gold standard in 93% of cases. Accuracy of estimating ovulation day within +/-2 days using intermittent sampling ranged from 40% (weekly sampling) to 97% (every-other-day). CONCLUSIONS: A combined hierarchical algorithm using precise and accurate markers allows maximal use of available data for efficient and objective identification of ovulation using daily specimens. In intermittent sampling designs, the presence and the timing of ovulation can be estimated with good sensitivity, specificity and accuracy.

Adult↗
PubMed2001

Colostrum feeding behaviour and initiation of breast-feeding in rural Bangladesh.

Human breast milk is primarily colostrum immediately following birth. Colostrum gradually changes to mature milk over the next several days. The role of colostrum in fighting infections and promoting growth and development of the newborn is widely acknowledged. This role is mediated by differences across cultures in the acceptability of colostrum and the prevalence of colostrum feeding. This study examined the prevalence of colostrum feeding and time to initiation of breast-feeding in 143 rural Bangladeshi women in Matlab thana. Structured interviews were collected during a 9-month prospective study conducted in 1993. Women were usually interviewed within 4 days of giving birth and were asked about whether or not they fed their child colostrum and the number of hours until they began breast-feeding the baby. Ninety per cent of the mothers reported feeding their newborn colostrum. A logistic regression found no effect on the prevalence of colostrum feeding from the following covariates: mother's age, parity, history of pregnancy loss, child's sex, mother's self-report of delivery complications, and the time from birth to interview. Fifty-nine per cent of mothers initiated breast-feeding within 4 h, and 88% within 12 h of parturition. Survival analysis was used to estimate the effects of covariates on the time from delivery to initial breast-feeding. Time to initial breast-feeding was delayed slightly, but significantly, for older mothers, for male infants, and by mothers who did not report delivery complications. The percentage of mothers who fed their child colostrum was higher, and times to initial breast-feeding were shorter, than almost all previous reports from South Asia. These findings might be explained, in part, by methodological differences among studies, but it is suggested that recent changes towards earlier initiation of breast-feeding have taken place in rural Bangladesh.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1998

Declining fecundity and ovarian ageing in natural fertility populations.

Worldwide, human fertility declines with increasing maternal age, after contraceptive-use patterns and behavioral factors are taken into consideration. Here, we summarize some of our theoretical and empirical work examining the biological factors contributing to this age pattern of fertility. We undertook an 11 month prospective endocrinological study in a natural fertility (non-contracepting) population (rural Bangladesh) to estimate the contributions of fetal loss and fecundability (the probability of conception) to declining fecundity with age. Prospective interviews and urine samples for pregnancy tests were collected twice weekly from up to 700 women. These data were used to test mathematical models of the underlying biological processes contributing to changing fecundability and fetal loss risk with maternal age. The results indicate that much of the decline in fecundity can be attributed to an increasing risk of fetal loss with maternal age. Much of this fetal loss is due to chromosomal abnormalities--a result of ageing oocytes. Fecundability, on the other hand, does not begin to decline until the early 40s. We hypothesize that this is also a result of ageing at the ovarian level, namely follicular atresia, in the years just prior to menopause. The irregularity of menstrual cycles--longer cycles and increasingly variable hormonal patterns--at these ages may be a direct result of the small and rapidly dwindling remaining pool of follicles. We present a simple mathematical model of this process, and some preliminary laboratory results that support the model.

Adult↗
PubMed1998

A commercial pregnancy test modified for field studies of fetal loss.

We describe simple modifications to the ICON II hCG (URINE) pregnancy test to provide a sensitive and specific urinary assay for hCG in field studies of fetal loss. The modified assay had a qualitative lower limit of detection of 0.30 IU/l, a 50% qualitative limit of 0.61 IU/l, a 100% qualitative limit of 1.16 IU/l, and a quantitative limit of 0.80 IU/l. Coefficients of variation ranged from 9.9% to 21.1%. Parallelism was observed among serially diluted subject samples. We used the assay in an 11-month prospective study of fetal loss in rural Bangladesh in which urine samples were collected twice-weekly from 494 women; 330 pregnancies and 93 fetal losses were detected. The median time to a positive pregnancy diagnosis was day 26 from last menses. The modified assay provided qualitative detection of early pregnancy comparable to laboratory assays, and appears to be well suited for use in epidemiologic or rural-population fetal loss studies.

Adult↗
PubMed1998

Longitudinal analysis of deciduous tooth emergence: II. Parametric survival analysis in Bangladeshi, Guatemalan, Japanese, and Javanese children.

We present a form of parametric survival analysis that incorporates exact, interval-censored, and right-censored times to deciduous tooth emergence. The method is an extension of common cross-sectional procedures such as logit and probit analysis, so that data arising from mixed longitudinal and cross-sectional studies can be properly combined. We extended the method to incorporate and estimate a proportion of agenic teeth. While we concentrate on deciduous tooth emergence, the method is relevant to studies of permanent tooth emergence and other developmental events. Deciduous tooth emergence data were analyzed from four longitudinal studies. The samples are 1,271 rural Guatemalan children examined every three months up to age two and every six months thereafter as part of the INCAP study; 397 rural Bangladeshi children examined monthly to age one and quarterly thereafter as part of the Meheran Growth and Development Study; 468 rural Indonesian children examined monthly as part of the Ngaglik study; and 114 urban Japanese children examined monthly in studies from 1910 and 1920. Although all four studies were longitudinal, many observations from the Guatemala and Bangladesh studies were effectively cross-sectionally observed. Three different parametric forms were used to model the eruption process: a normal distribution, a lognormal distribution, and a lognormal distribution with age shifted to shortly after conception. All three distributions produced reliable estimates of central tendencies, but the shifted lognormal distribution produced the best overall estimates of shape (variance) parameters. Estimates of emergence were compared to other studies that used similar methods. Japanese children showed relatively fast emergence times for all teeth. Bangladeshi and Javanese children showed emergence times that were slower than are found in most previous studies. Estimates of agenesis were not significantly different from zero for most teeth. One or two central incisors showed significant agenesis that ranged from 0.1 to 0.8% in three of the samples; even so, failure to model the agenic proportion did not seriously bias the estimates.

Bangladesh↗
PubMed1994

A multistate model of fecundability and sterility.

This paper develops a multistate hazards model for estimating fecundability and sterility from data on waiting times to conception. Important features of the model include separate sterile and nonsterile states, a distinction between preexisting sterility and sterility that begins after initiation of exposure, and log-normally distributed fecundability among nonsterile couples. Application of the model to data on first birth intervals from Taiwan, Sri Lanka, and the Amish shows that heterogeneity in fecundability is statistically significant at most ages, but that preexisting sterility and new sterility are unimportant before age 40. These results suggest that sterility may not be an important determinant of natural fertility until later reproductive ages.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1991

Determination of sex from arm bone measurements.

Discriminant function analysis has been applied to numerous dimensions of the cranial and postcranial skeleton for sex determination of U.S. blacks and whites and is extended here to five measurements of the arm and wrist. These include maximum lengths of the long arm bones in addition to two measurements that reflect wrist breadth. Our results indicate that whites are more accurately classified than blacks, but seven of the 31 possible measurement combinations common to both groups yield functions with sex prediction accuracies comparable to most, but not all, functions based on other parts of the skeleton.

Black People↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Menstrual cycle variability and the perimenopause.

Menopause, the final cessation of menstrual cycling, occurs when the pool of ovarian follicles is depleted. The one to five years just prior to the menopause are usually marked by increasing variability in menstrual cycle length, frequency of ovulation, and levels of reproductive hormones. Little is known about the mechanisms that account for these characteristics of ovarian cycles as the menopause approaches. Some evidence suggests that the dwindling pool of follicles itself is responsible for cycle characteristics during the perimenopausal transition. Another hypothesis is that the increased variability reflects "slippage" of the hypothalamus, which loses the ability to regulate menstrual cycles at older reproductive ages. This paper examines the underlying cause of the increasing variability in menstrual cycle length prior to the menopause. A model of ovarian cycles is developed, based on the process of follicular growth and depletion. Under this model, the follicular phase of each menstrual cycle is preceded by an inactive phase, a period of time when no ovarian follicles have left the resting state and begun secreting steroids in response to gonadotropin stimulation. The model makes predictions about the variability in menstrual cycles across the reproductive life span based on the size of the surviving pool of ovarian follicles. We show that the model can explain several characteristics of the perimenopause in humans and macaques and illustrate how the model can be applied to research on the biological and cultural correlates of the timing of menopause.

Age Factors↗