Publishing raw data and real time statistical analysis on e-journals.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to D J Hutchon.
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OBJECTIVES: To investigate how accurately practicing obstetricians (experts) can apply dating rules and compare the interpretation of gestation-sensitive ultrasound data with those of a computer system. SUBJECTS: Seventeen practicing obstetricians. Members of the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists, from 14 different units throughout the UK. DESIGN: Six cases with menstrual and ultrasound data together with identical ultrasound charts and obstetric wheels. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Concordance between the calculated estimated date of delivery (EDD) and growth assessment provided by the experts and the computer system. RESULTS: The calculation of the EDD by the experts was imprecise (59% within 3 days overall). Concordance with the computer calculation was poorest when the ultrasound measurements lay close to the upper or lower centile lines (average 7% within 3 days of the computer). Interpretation of growth showed good concordance with the computer when gestation was not critical to the interpretation (94%), but very poor when gestation was critical (7%). CONCLUSIONS: Calculation of EDD by means of an obstetric wheel and charts is not precise. Compared with the computer system, these errors have a significant effect on the subsequent interpretation of growth scans when the data are borderline. A computer system provides the more accurate method for interpreting gestation-sensitive ultrasound biometry.
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A search of the two major journals of obstetrics and gynecology published in the United States has shown that the word abortion rather than miscarriage to describe early pregnancy loss is 6 times more likely to be used compared with most other English language journals over the last 5 years. The use of miscarriage, with descriptive adjectives such as threatened, incomplete, and complete, is recommended and the term delayed miscarriage is suggested in place of missed abortion.
The expected date of delivery (EDD) using a precise ultrasound day rule was compared with the scan EDD alone in 219 singleton pregnant women who were certain of their last menstrual period, and booked in the obstetric department of a district general hospital. The system compared the ultrasound biometric measurement with the normal range of a published chart of fetal size and, using the day rule concept, the final EDD selected by an 'expert' computer system. Statistical analysis using similar methods as in other published studies showed that the 'expert' system correlated with the actual date of the onset of spontaneous labour at least as well as scan dates alone. Menstrual data should not be rejected in favour of ultrasonic biometry in all cases and a computer system using a precise day rule should be a valuable addition to computerised maternity databases and ultrasound machines.
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