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Biomedical subjects

D M Fleming

Publications and source records attributed to D M Fleming.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1992

The problem of diagnostic variability in general practice.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The aim was to examine the scale, source, and relevance of variation between general practices in respect of the rates with which patients consulted with illnesses falling in each of several diagnostic groups. DESIGN: This study involved a general practice morbidity survey conducted over two years, 1970-72. All patients who consulted their general practitioners were identified and the number of these who consulted with diagnoses attributable to each of the 18 main chapters of the International classification of diseases were counted. Patients who consulted for more than one diagnosis within a chapter were counted once only; those who consulted for one or more diagnoses in each of several chapters were counted once for each chapter. SETTING: This was a national survey involving general practitioners in England and Wales. SUBJECTS: The study involved 214,524 patients from 53 selected general practices (115 doctors) who were registered with their general practitioners for the whole of the year 1970-71 and for whom their morbidity data had been linked with their social data from the 1971 census. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Using the numbers of patients on the practice lists as denominators, practice patient consulting rates (PPCR) were calculated for each practice and for each ICD chapter. Variability in chapter PPCR was examined by calculating coefficients of variation and, after allowance for random variation, coefficients of residual variation. There were large interpractice (doctor) variations in all chapter rates. These variations were only marginally attributable to: chance; different age, sex and social class mixes of practice populations; geographical locations; and practice organisation. The rates were, however, consistent from one year to the next for any one practice. Approximately half of the interpractice (doctor) diagnostic variability was associated with overall patient consulting behaviour. When the effects of this behaviour were discounted, any major residual diagnostic variability was confined largely to ICD chapters I-V, XVI, and XVII, ie, those chapters where aetiology forms the basis of classification. CONCLUSION: Variations in recorded diagnostic rates are mainly due to the consistent but idiosyncratic and selective exclusion by practitioners of some components from the total set which often coexist in a new diagnosis. Because of the scale of interpractice diagnostic variability, the use of algorithms and information technology is largely precluded from outcome studies, auditing procedures, and studies of practice work loads in general. However, (1) the consistency of any individual doctor's pattern of diagnostic recording from one year to another permits studies of trends; and (2) given a reasonable number of recording practices, the population mean practice consulting rates can be estimated with sufficient accuracy for many epidemiological research and administrative uses.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1991

Disease concurrence in diabetes mellitus: a study of concurrent morbidity over 12 months using diabetes mellitus as an example.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The aim was to examine disease concurrence, using diabetes mellitus as an ullustrative example. DESIGN: The study involved a general practice morbidity survey, conducted over 12 months in 1981-82. All patients who consulted their general practitioners with a diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (type 1 or type 2) were identified and the number of these who consulted with additional morbidities were counted for each rubric of the Royal College of General Practitioners' modification of the International Classification of Disease. These observed numbers were then compared with expected numbers calculated from the total non-diabetic population after standardisation by age. Standardised person consulting ratios (SPCR) were derived and the 99% confidence intervals (CI) surrounding these values calculated. SETTING: This was a national survey involving the whole of England and Wales. PATIENTS: The study involved 280,000 patients from selected general practices, of whom 953 males and 1035 females consulted their general practitioners with diabetes. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In an examination of 80 disease rubrics in the diabetic population in which there were at least 20 observed or expected cases, there were 34 among males and 28 among females in which there were increased values of the SPCR, and none in which the SPCR was decreased. SPCRs were high for infections generally (bacterial, fungal, and viral) and particularly so for cardiovascular disorders and for hypothyroidism in males. Though SPCRs for upper respiratory infections were increased, those for asthma and hay fever were not. SPCRs for neoplasms as a group were not raised. CONCLUSION: By confirming other work and widely held clinical opinion, this study has shown the potential of this data base for the examination of disease concurrence.

Cohort Studies↗
PubMed1991

The measurement of morbidity in general practice.

(1) The need for morbidity data based on general practice arises because: (a) the consultation in general practice is the entry point into the health care system; (b) among the health problems brought to the attention of doctors, most are dealt with completely in general practice; (c) general practice records can provide a comprehensive database for health care. (2) The routine measurement of morbidity has to be based on "working diagnostic terms" derived by consensus amongst recorders because: (a) many episodes of illness involve only one consultation and the doctor is required to make the most of the information available to him at the time; (b) the specification of criteria would require validating evidence of conformity and this is not a realistic option on a wide scale; (c) health care data which include the opinion of the general practitioner are more valuable than data based on patient perceptions of illness. (3) The analysis and interpretation of data from general practice: (a) should preferably be based on persons as the unit of analysis; (b) when based on consultations, may be useful for examining workload, but has limited epidemiological value; (c) can, by person linkage, facilitate the study of disease concurrence; and (d) is essential for managing the health care system and monitoring the public health.

Data Collection↗
PubMed1991

The design and management of national morbidity surveys.

This paper describes the three major morbidity surveys in general practice which have been conducted in England and Wales. In it, the evolution of the recording method is traced from the patient summary card of the first survey to the diagnostic index of the second and third surveys and finally, to the fully computerised recording programme to be used in the fourth survey due to start in September, 1991. Issues relating to the capture of social data, the use of diagnostic terms and the value of obtaining data over a 12 month period are discussed.

Data Collection↗
PubMed1991

Changes in practice morbidity between the 1970 and 1981 national morbidity surveys.

The primary aim of the study was to evaluate practice differences in reported morbidity in the second and third national morbidity surveys (1970/71, 1981/82) and to discuss their cause. A secondary aim concerned the validation of trends identified from analysis of the data from the total populations in the practices. Altogether 19 practices participated in both surveys. Annual prevalences (that is, the number of patients attending the general practitioner with a condition per 1000 persons at risk) were examined for: all conditions; each of three categories of seriousness of disease; diseases aggregated by chapter of the International classification of diseases; and each of 130 rubrics of the disease classification. Annual prevalence for 'all conditions' was approximately the same for males in both surveys, whereas for females there was an increase. In both sexes, annual prevalence for 'serious conditions' increased slightly and for 'trivial conditions' increased substantially. For 'intermediate conditions', there was a modest decrease in males. In the analysis at ICD chapter level, substantial increases in prevalence occurred in infectious diseases, nervous system diseases, circulatory diseases, genitourinary diseases, musculoskeletal diseases, symptoms, signs and ill-defined conditions, injuries and poisonings. Decreases were found in blood diseases, mental disorders and digestive diseases. Among 130 individual conditions examined, increased annual prevalence was found for mumps, fungal infections, hypothyroidism, diabetes, gout, senile dementia, angina, left heart failure, catarrh, hay fever and asthma, orchitis, acne, osteoarthritis and for some symptoms. Decreases were found for iron deficiency anaemia, anxiety state, refractive errors, haemorrhoids, chronic bronchitis, functional disorders of the stomach, carbuncle and skin infections.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Adolescent↗
PubMed1990

Observations on the influenza epidemic of November/December 1989.

This paper reports on the surveillance of influenza by the weekly returns service of the Royal College of General Practitioners during the epidemic of November/December 1989. An epidemic of influenza became evident in mid-November and incidence peaked in the week beginning 6 December. The increase in incidence of influenza-like illness and of aggregated data for all respiratory disease to above the levels for non-epidemic years occurred one week before that attributed to influenza. The pattern of incidence was similar in the three geographic regions of England and Wales. The peak was first achieved in the age group 5-14 years and last in age 65+ years. The pattern of deaths from all causes closely followed the pattern of respiratory disease with an interval of between one and two weeks. During the period 15 November to the end of the year there were approximately twice as many people reporting respiratory disease than was usual for this time of year. The peak weekly incidence was the highest recorded for 12 years but it was substantially less than the peaks for the winters of 1969/70, 1972/73 and 1975/76. Further research is in progress to establish the most effective means of monitoring influenza epidemics.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1989

Consultation rates in English general practice.

Methods of estimating the annual consulting rate per patient are reviewed. Methodological problems include the definition of consultations as opposed to problems encountered, the definition of population at risk, the reliability of data about home visits and the limitations of extrapolating data collected over a short period. Estimates of consultation rate are usually obtained from surveys which have other primary objectives. The annual consultation rate in 1981, excluding telephone contacts, was estimated at 3.5 consultations per patient. In spite of its limited sample size, the general household survey provides a reliable estimate of the national consulting rate. There is, however, a need to validate it against a survey covering a longer period in which consultation rates are measured and not just estimated from memory. The total workload of the 'average' doctor changed little between 1970 and 1981 in spite of reducing list size. Home visits accounted for approximately 15% of all consultations in 1981 and this value has been consistent over the period 1980-83.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1988

The case for differential capitation fees based on age in British general practice.

A study was performed to assess whether the existing differential capitation fees for general practitioners accurately assess differential workloads. Data from the third morbidity study in general practice were used to compare capitation fees with relative workload in differing age and sex groups. The population mix which determined the payment by capitation for the 143 principals in the study provided the basis for examining the advantage or disadvantage the general practitioner got from the existing system. Capitation fees for the elderly underestimated the increased workload by 21% for those aged 65-74 and by 54% for those aged 75 or over but overestimated the workload for male adults aged up to 65. Nevertheless, 60% of the participating general practitioners were not advantaged or disadvantaged by more than 2.5% of their capitation fees (450 pounds a year for the average practitioner with a list of 2000 patients). Similarly 88% were not advantaged or disadvantaged by more than 5%; none were advantaged or disadvantaged by more than 10%. A three scale capitation fee for the age groups 0-64, 65-74, and 75 or over should be applied in the ratio of 3:5:7 rather than in the present ratio of 3:4:5, but given the present population mix in practices there is no case for differential capitation fees by sex or differential fees for the age group 0-4 years.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1988

Hematologic bone marrow disorders: quantitative chemical shift MR imaging.

Twenty-one in vivo studies of bone marrow of the lumbar spine were performed with a 0.6-T commercial MR imager and proton chemical shift imaging techniques. Six healthy volunteers served as controls. Multiple measurements in the volunteers demonstrated reproducibility within errors of 5% for fat fraction and 6% for T1 of water. Ten patients who had histologically proved leukemia or aplastic anemia were then examined. The data show that changes in fat fraction represent the underlying reason for many of the changes observed in conventional spin-echo (SE) images of these disorders. Although both conventional and chemical shift images showed differences among the pathologic groups and healthy volunteers, fat fraction determined with chemical shift imaging was the single best discriminator among them. A two-point estimate of fat fraction was also evaluated. This rapid imaging protocol performed almost as well as the complete quantitative analysis in discriminating between pathologic and healthy tissue and showed improved discrimination compared with conventional SE techniques.

Adipose Tissue↗
PubMed1988

Comparison between the weekly returns service and the Oxford regional sentinel practice scheme for monitoring communicable diseases.

Weekly data for seven conditions reported to the weekly returns service of the Royal College of General Practitioners' Birmingham research unit over a 52-week period have been compared with those reported to the Oxford regional sentinel practice scheme. The mean weekly recorded rates for otitis media, asthma and intestinal infectious disease were similar in both systems; in the weekly returns service, mean weekly rates for common cold, acute bronchitis and influenza/influenza-like illness were approximately twice and for sore throat/tonsillitis slightly higher than rates in the Oxford scheme.In the weekly returns service no recommendations are made about criteria for diagnosis but in the Oxford scheme diagnostic criteria agreed by the participants are used. Where rates in both monitoring systems are the same, agreed criteria are likely to be conventional clinical practice and therefore superfluous. Where rates are different, the use of criteria enhances specificity of the information content but results in an underestimation of the total incidence of - respiratory disease presented to general practitioners.For common cold, acute bronchitis, otitis media and influenza/ influenza-like illness the associations between the rates in the two systems were high (R>/=O. 79), as might be expected, but these high values cross validate both recording systems in their monitoring of trends. For the remaining (non-epidemic) conditions the associations were low. There were no significant associations between the rates for asthma and the upper respiratory infectious diseases in either recording system, which suggests there was effective discrimination of asthma.

Communicable Disease Control↗
PubMed1988

Diagnosis and patterns of incidence of influenza, influenza-like illness and the common cold in general practice.

The incidence of influenza, influenza-like illness and the common cold during the influenza epidemics of 1972 and 1976 as reported to the weekly returns service of the Royal College of General Practitioners was examined by three regional areas and by age group. The results of a postal questionnaire concerned with diagnostic criteria used by participating doctors were also analysed. These two analyses were used to explore the validity of these diagnostic terms as reported in the weekly returns service.The two influenza epidemics peaked at about the same time throughout the country and in all age groups simultaneously, although the severity of the epidemic seemed to wane from south to north in 1976. The reported incidence of influenza-like illness and of the common cold was less in the central region than in the north and south during both the two epidemic years. Influenza incidence was maximal in age groups 15-44 and 45-64 years, whereas the reported incidence of influenza-like illness and the common cold was maximal in pre-school children.Additionally, influenza-like illness and the common cold appeared to a fairly uniform extent every winter whereas influenza was truly epidemic.From the questionnaire to general practitioners, the symptoms of rigors, malaise and myalgia and the recognition of an epidemic were the important criteria which differentiated influenza from influenza-like illness.We conclude that in general practice the distinction between influenza and influenza-like illness is reliably made and has validity in the clinical context and meaning of these diagnostic terms.

Cohort Studies↗
PubMed1987

Prognosis in adult asthma: a national study.

Although one million people consult their general practitioners for asthma each year, data on the prognosis of this disease are scarce, particularly in adults. Mortality was studied among 2547 adult asthmatics attending a national sample of 60 general practices between 1970 and 1976; they were compared with a matched group of non-asthmatic patients. Mortality from all causes was significantly raised in the asthmatic cohort (189 deaths v 112 among controls; relative risk 1.61, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.0), especially in women (92 v 42 deaths; relative risk 2.2 (1.5 to 3.1)), and in the oldest age group (55-59 years). In both sexes the predominant cause of excess mortality was respiratory disease, particularly asthma (25 v 0 deaths) and chronic obstructive airways disease (37 v 4 deaths; relative risk 8.8 (2.8 to 23)). Overall, 94% of the asthmatic cohort survived the mean follow up period of eight years compared with 96% of the controls. In contrast to previous findings, the risk of death due to malignant neoplasms was not significantly reduced overall (34 v 36 deaths), though the risk was significantly reduced among those aged under 45 years (2 v 10 deaths; relative risk 0.2 (0.02 to 0.9)) and there was a significant trend of lowering of relative risk with younger age (p less than 0.01).

Adult↗
PubMed1987

Prevalence of asthma and hay fever in England and Wales.

The results concerned with the prevalence of asthma and hay fever in the large surveys of morbidity in general practice in 1970-1 and 1981-2 were compared. In data standardised for age the prevalence of asthma in men increased from 11.6 to 20.5 people consulting per 1000 population (p less than 0.001) and in women from 8.8 to 15.9 per 1000 population (p less than 0.001). Similar increases were also evident in data analysed from the 19 practices contributing to both surveys. The prevalence of asthma increased in each age group examined. Increases of similar magnitude were reported for hay fever--the prevalence in men increased from 10.8 to 19.8 people consulting per 1000 population (p less than 0.001) and in women from 10.3 to 19.7 per 1000 population (p less than 0.001) and occurred in all age groups. The prevalence of acute bronchitis was reduced significantly in the age group 5-14 and increased among the elderly. The prevalence of chronic bronchitis was reduced substantially in 1981-2. The reported increased prevalence of both asthma and hay fever represented a real increase and was not accounted for by changes in diagnostic preference. Only in the age group 5-14 was there any likelihood that some of the increased prevalence of asthma might have resulted from a reduction in the prevalence of acute bronchitis.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed1987

A simple scoring system for evaluating symptoms, history and urine dipstick testing in the diagnosis of urinary tract infection.

Patients presenting with symptoms suggestive of urinary tract infection were recruited in a general practice survey aimed at measuring the predictive value of symptoms, history and urine dipstick testing for diagnosing the presence of bacterial infection. Urine specimens were obtained from 87% of the 521 patients recruited. A diagnosis of infection was established by urine culture producing a colony count in a pure culture exceeding 100 000 organisms per ml or between 10 000 and 100 000 organisms per ml plus a minimum of 100 leucocytes per mm(3).Occurrence rates for symptoms and other items of information in infected and non-infected groups were used to derive their positive and negative predictive values in making the diagnosis. The predictive value of volunteered symptoms was compared with that of elicited and volunteered symptoms combined. The positive predictive value of symptoms was increased where elicited symptoms were included but this was achieved at the cost of diminishing the negative predictive value. The occurrence rates were used to derive a mathematical model for diagnosing infection. The symptoms-history-urinalysis (SHU) score generated in this model compared well with a computer predicted probability. Both were substantially better than the assessment and action (decision to prescribe an antibiotic) of the recording doctor.The scoring method described has been demonstrated in urinary tract infection but may be applied to any symptom combination related to a diagnosis for which there is an agreed definition.

Adolescent↗