D M Lodge | PubMed Health

PubMed2001

Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative.

Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts of critical ecosystem services requires a process that engages scientists and decision-makers. Interdisciplinary linkages are necessary because of the climate and societal controls on ecosystems, the feedbacks involving social change, and the decision-making relevance of forecasts.

Agriculture↗

PubMed2001

Hybrid zone dynamics and species replacement between Orconectes crayfishes in a northern Wisconsin lake.

Hybrid zones that result in the genetic assimilation (replacement) of one species by another are underrepresented in the animal literature, most likely due to their transient nature. One such zone involves the rusty crayfish, Orconectes rusticus, and its congener O. propinquus. Orconectes rusticus was recently introduced into northern Wisconsin and Michigan lakes and streams, where it is hybridizing with and displacing resident O. propinquus. Here we report on a study investigating the dynamics of a hybrid zone between the two crayfish in Trout Lake, Wisconsin, where both the time (circa 1979) and location of the initial introduction are known. Our prediction was that hybridization should hasten the demise of O. propinquus because we expected that male O. rusticus (which are larger than congeners) would outcompete male O. propinquus for mates of both species. If hybrid progeny are unfit, then the result would be decreased reproductive output of O. propinquus females. However, we found a pattern of cytonuclear disequilibrium between allozymes and mtDNA suggesting that a majority (94.5%) of F1 hybrids resulted from matings between O. rusticus females and O. propinquus males. Also contrary to expectations, fecundity (O. rusticus and O. propinquus) and early hybrid survivorship did not differ significantly from nonhybrids. Moreover, adults of mixed ancestry were superior to both O. rusticus and O. propinquus in competition for a limiting food resource. Using a single-locus model, we estimated that hybridization increases the advance of O. rusticus genes in Trout Lake between 4.8% and 36.3% above that due to the previously documented ecological interactions. Consequently, whereas hybridization may be hastening the elimination of genetically pure O. propinquus, introgression is nevertheless slowing the loss of O. propinquus nuclear genes. Although our results suggest that O. rusticus and O. propinquus may not be true species under the biological concept, their ecological differences are of great conservation importance.

Animals↗

PubMed2000

Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100.

Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

Agriculture↗