Biomedical subjects

Daniel Levy

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel Levy.

At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources

PubMed2002

Serum albumin and risk of myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality in the Framingham Offspring Study.

BACKGROUND: Coronary disease remains the leading cause of death in the United States. The association between serum albumin and cardiovascular disease remains controversial. We used data collected prospectively from participants of the Framingham Offspring Study to assess whether a lower concentration of serum albumin was associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and all-cause mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: During 21.9 years of mean follow-up, 280 cases of MI occurred. From the highest to the lowest tertile of serum albumin, crude incidence rates of MI were 26.7, 46.7, and 67.8 cases per 10 000 person-years, respectively, for men and 5.9, 15.0, and 16.8 cases per 10 000 person-years, respectively, for women. In a Mantel-Haenszel method adjusting for age, total cholesterol, and hypertension, lower serum albumin was associated with an increased risk of MI in both sexes. From the highest to the lowest tertile of albumin, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) of MI were 1.0 (reference), 1.25 (0.84 to 1.84), and 1.49 (1.01 to 2.21), respectively, for men and 1.0, 1.79 (0.88 to 3.65), and 2.12 (1.06 to 4.27), respectively, for women. The albumin-MI association was stronger among hypertensive subjects in both sexes. In addition, low albumin was associated with an increased rate of all-cause mortality in women. CONCLUSIONS: Lower serum albumin concentrations appear to be associated with an increased risk of coronary disease in both sexes and with all-cause mortality in women and could help along with traditional risk factors in identifying people at risk of MI.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Hydroxamate based inhibitors of adenylyl cyclase. Part 1: the effect of acyclic linkers on P-site binding.

The adenylyl cyclases (ACs) are a family of enzymes that are key elements of signal transduction by virtue of their ability to convert ATP to cAMP. The catalytic mechanism of this transformation proceeds through initial binding of ATP to the purine binding site (P-site) followed by metal mediated cyclization with loss of pyrophosphate. Crystallographic analysis of ACs with known inhibitors reveals the presence of two metals in the active site. Presently, nine isoforms of adenylyl cyclase are known and unique isoform combinations are expressed in a tissue specific manner. The development of isoform specific inhibitors of adenylyl cyclase may prove to be a useful strategy toward the design of novel therapeutic agents. In order to develop novel AC inhibitors, we have chosen a design approach utilizing molecules with the adenine ring system joined to a metal-coordinating hydroxamic acid via flexible acyclic linkers. The designed inhibitors were assayed against type V AC with the size and heteroatom content of the linkers varied to probe the interaction of the nucleotide and metal binding sites within the enzyme.

Adenylyl Cyclase Inhibitors↗

PubMed2002

Hydroxamate based inhibitors of adenylyl cyclase. Part 2: the effect of cyclic linkers on P-site binding.

Adenylyl Cyclase Inhibitors↗

PubMed2002

Long-term trends in the incidence of and survival with heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is a major public health problem. Long-term trends in the incidence of heart failure and survival after its onset in the community have not been characterized. METHODS: We used statistical models to assess temporal trends in the incidence of heart failure and Cox proportional-hazards regression to evaluate survival after the onset of heart failure among subjects in the Framingham Heart Study. Cases of heart failure were classified according to the date of onset: 1950 through 1969 (223 cases), 1970 through 1979 (222), 1980 through 1989 (307), and 1990 through 1999 (323). We also calculated 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year age-adjusted mortality rates for each period. RESULTS: Heart failure occurred in 1075 subjects (51 percent of whom were women). As compared with the rate for the period from 1950 through 1969, the incidence of heart failure remained virtually unchanged among men in the three subsequent periods but declined by 31 to 40 percent among women (rate ratio for the period from 1990 through 1999, 0.69; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.51 to 0.93). The 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year age-adjusted mortality rates among men declined from 12 percent, 30 percent, and 70 percent, respectively, in the period from 1950 through 1969 to 11 percent, 28 percent, and 59 percent, respectively, in the period from 1990 through 1999. The corresponding rates among women were 18 percent, 28 percent, and 57 percent for the period from 1950 through 1969 and 10 percent, 24 percent, and 45 percent for the period from 1990 through 1999. Overall, there was an improvement in the survival rate after the onset of heart failure of 12 percent per decade (P=0.01 for men and P=0.02 for women). CONCLUSIONS: Over the past 50 years, the incidence of heart failure has declined among women but not among men, whereas survival after the onset of heart failure has improved in both sexes. Factors contributing to these trends need further clarification.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

The association of seropositivity to Helicobacter pylori, Chlamydia pneumoniae, and cytomegalovirus with risk of cardiovascular disease: a prospective study.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine whether seropositivity to Helicobacter pylori, Chlamydia pneumoniae, and cytomegalovirus (CMV) is an independent predictor of incident cardiovascular disease. BACKGROUND: Recent reports have suggested that infections may contribute to risk of cardiovascular disease. However, prospective studies of these associations in a free-living population are lacking. METHODS: We measured serum H. pylori IgG, C. pneumoniae IgG and IgA, and CMV IgG levels in Framingham Heart Study cohort participants. Blood samples were drawn during the 16th biennial examination cycle (1979 to 1982) from 1,187 participants free of cardiovascular disease (mean age 69 years) and stored at -20 degrees C. A pooled primary end point of myocardial infarction, atherothrombotic stroke, and coronary heart disease deaths was studied in relation to serology. Using a Cox model, hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated, adjusting for age, gender, and established risk factors. RESULTS: Seropositivity to H. pylori IgG, C. pneumoniae IgG, C. pneumoniae IgA, and CMV IgG was 60%, 45%, 11%, and 69%, respectively. During 10 years of follow-up, incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 199 participants (16.8%). In age- and gender-adjusted models, H. pylori IgG (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.46), C. pneumoniae IgG (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.20), C. pneumoniae IgA (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.39 to 1.07), and CMV IgG (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.12) were not associated with incident cardiovascular disease. These associations were further attenuated after adjustment for risk factors including body mass index, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and hypertension. These estimates did not change for the individual components of cardiovascular disease, and seropositivity to more than one organism did not alter these risk estimates substantially. CONCLUSIONS: In this elderly cohort, chronic H. pylori, C. pneumoniae, and CMV infections, as evidenced by seropositivity, were not associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease. Additional studies are needed to determine the relations of chronic infections to cardiovascular disease risk in younger persons.

Aged↗

PubMed2002

Heart rate recovery after treadmill exercise testing and risk of cardiovascular disease events (The Framingham Heart Study).

A delayed heart rate (HR) recovery after graded exercise testing has been associated with increased all-cause mortality in clinic-based samples. No prior study has examined the association of HR recovery after exercise with the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. We evaluated 2,967 Framingham study subjects (1,400 men, mean age 43 years) who were free of CVD and underwent a treadmill exercise test (Bruce protocol) at a routine examination. We examined the relations of HR recovery indexes (decrease in HR from peak exercise) to the incidence of a first CHD or CVD event and all-cause mortality, adjusting for established CVD risk factors. During follow-up (mean 15 years), 214 subjects experienced a CHD event (156 men), 312 developed a CVD event (207 men), and 167 died (105 men). In multivariable models, continuous HR recovery indexes were not associated with the incidence of CHD or CVD events, or with all-cause mortality. However, in models evaluating quintile-based cut points, the top quintile of HR recovery (greatest decline in HR) at 1-minute after exercise was associated with a lower risk of CHD (hazards ratio vs bottom 4 quintiles 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.32 to 0.93) and CVD (hazards ratio 0.61, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.93), but not all-cause mortality (hazards ratio 0.99, 95% CI 0.60 to 1.62). In our community-based sample, HR recovery indexes were not associated with all-cause mortality. A very rapid HR recovery immediately after exercise was associated with lower risk of CHD and CVD events. These findings should be confirmed in other settings.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Mitral valve prolapse in the general population: the benign nature of echocardiographic features in the Framingham Heart Study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine the echocardiographic features and associations of mitral valve prolapse (MVP) diagnosed by current two-dimensional echocardiographic criteria in an unselected outpatient sample. BACKGROUND: Previous studies of patients with MVP have emphasized the frequent occurrence of echocardiographic abnormalities such as significant mitral regurgitation (MR) and left atrial (LA) enlargement that are associated with clinical complications. These studies, however, have been limited by the use of hospital-based or referral series. METHODS: We quantitatively studied all 150 subjects with possible MVP by echocardiography and 150 age- and gender-matched subjects without MVP from the 3,491 subjects in the Framingham Heart Study. Based on leaflet morphology, subjects were classified as having classic (n = 46), nonclassic (n = 37), or no MVP. RESULTS: Leaflet length, MR degree, and LA and left ventricular size were significantly but mildly increased in MVP (p < 0.0001 to 0.004), with mean values typically within normal range. Average MR jet area was 15.1 +/- 1.4% (mild) in classic MVP and 8.9 +/- 1.5% (trace) in nonclassic MVP; MR was severe in only 3 of 46 (6.5%) subjects with classic MVP, and LA volume was increased in only 8.7% of those with classic MVP and 2.7% of those with nonclassic MVP. CONCLUSIONS: Although the echocardiographic characteristics of subjects with MVP in the Framingham Heart Study differ from those without MVP, they display a far more benign profile of associated valvular, atrial, and ventricular abnormalities than previously reported in hospital- or referral-based series. Therefore, these findings may influence the perception of and approach to the outpatient with MVP.

Ambulatory Care↗

PubMed2002

Association of C-reactive protein with carotid atherosclerosis in men and women: the Framingham Heart Study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between C-reactive protein (CRP) and carotid atherosclerosis. BACKGROUND: Levels of CRP, a nonspecific marker of inflammation, predict risk for cardiovascular events. However, the association between CRP and direct measures of atherosclerosis is not well established. METHODS AND RESULTS: Subjects (n=3173, 52% women, mean age 55) in the offspring cohort of the Framingham Heart Study received a CRP measurement and then underwent carotid ultrasonography 4 years later. Carotid stenosis (> or =25%) was present in 24% of men and 14% of women. Age-adjusted odds ratios for carotid stenosis were 1.62 (95%CI 1.12 to 2.36) for men and 3.90 (CI 2.44 to 6.44) for women in the fourth quartile of CRP compared with those in the lowest quartile. After further adjustment for traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors, the odds ratio remained significant for women (2.97, CI 1.72 to 5.25) but not for men. Similarly, after multivariable adjustment, women in the fourth CRP quartile had a higher mean internal carotid intima-media thickness than those in the lowest CRP quartile (P< or =0.001). There was no association between common carotid intima-media thickness and CRP. CONCLUSIONS: There is a graded association between CRP and carotid atherosclerosis in women but not in men. The significance of this difference between sexes merits further investigation.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2002

Incidence and prognosis of syncope.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the epidemiology and prognosis of syncope in the general population. METHODS: We evaluated the incidence, specific causes, and prognosis of syncope among women and men participating in the Framingham Heart Study from 1971 to 1998. RESULTS: Of 7814 study participants followed for an average of 17 years, 822 reported syncope. The incidence of a first report of syncope was 6.2 per 1000 person-years. The most frequently identified causes were vasovagal (21.2 percent), cardiac (9.5 percent), and orthostatic (9.4 percent); for 36.6 percent the cause was unknown. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios among participants with syncope from any cause, as compared with those who did not have syncope, were 1.31 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.14 to 1.51) for death from any cause, 1.27 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.99 to 1.64) for myocardial infarction or death from coronary heart disease, and 1.06 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.77 to 1.45) for fatal or nonfatal stroke. The corresponding hazard ratios among participants with cardiac syncope were 2.01 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.48 to 2.73), 2.66 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.69 to 4.19), and 2.01 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.06 to 3.80). Participants with syncope of unknown cause and those with neurologic syncope had increased risks of death from any cause, with multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of 1.32 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.09 to 1.60) and 1.54 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.12 to 2.12), respectively. There was no increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity or mortality associated with vasovagal (including orthostatic and medication-related) syncope. CONCLUSIONS: Persons with cardiac syncope are at increased risk for death from any cause and cardiovascular events, and persons with syncope of unknown cause are at increased risk for death from any cause. Vasovagal syncope appears to have a benign prognosis.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Plasma natriuretic peptides for community screening for left ventricular hypertrophy and systolic dysfunction: the Framingham heart study.

CONTEXT: Several reports have suggested the usefulness of plasma brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) as a screening test for left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and systolic dysfunction (LVSD). Prior studies were limited by small sample sizes and selection bias and none compared the diagnostic performance of these peptides in men and women. OBJECTIVES: To examine the usefulness of natriuretic peptides for screening for elevated LV mass and LVSD in the community. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Community-based prospective cohort study of 3177 participants (1707 women) from the Framingham Study who attended a routine examination in 1995-1998. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, test sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and likelihood ratios for identifying elevated LV mass (sex-specific 90th percentile or higher of LV mass/[height](2)), LVSD (ejection fraction < or = 50% and/or fractional shortening <29%), and moderate to severe LVSD (ejection fraction < or = 40% and/or fractional shortening <22%) at different discrimination limits of plasma BNP and N-terminal proatrial natriuretic peptide (NT-ANP), with echocardiography as the criterion standard. RESULTS: The areas under the ROC curves for elevated LV mass or LVSD were at or below 0.75 for both peptides, were higher for men compared with women, and were similar for BNP and NT-ANP. The diagnostic performance of natriuretic peptides for LVSD improved in women but not in men when select high-risk subgroups were targeted. Discrimination limits based on high specificity (0.95) yielded better positive predictive values and likelihood ratios compared with age- and sex-specific reference limits yet only identified less than one third of participants who had elevated LV mass or LVSD. CONCLUSION: In our large community-based sample, the performance of BNP and NT-ANP for detection of elevated LV mass and LVSD was suboptimal, suggesting limited usefulness of natriuretic peptides as mass screening tools.

Atrial Natriuretic Factor↗

PubMed2002

C-reactive protein is associated with subclinical epicardial coronary calcification in men and women: the Framingham Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: High C-reactive protein (CRP) levels are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events, even in apparently healthy individuals. It has not been established whether elevated CRP reflects an increased burden of subclinical coronary atherosclerosis. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied a stratified random sample of 321 men and women (mean age 60 years) from the Framingham Heart Study who were free of clinically apparent cardiovascular disease. Subjects underwent electron-beam computed tomography to assess the number of coronary calcifications and the coronary artery calcification (CAC) Agatston score. Spearman correlation coefficients between CRP and CAC score were calculated and adjusted for age, age plus individual risk factors, and age plus the Framingham coronary heart disease risk score. For both sexes, CRP was significantly correlated with the Agatston score (age-adjusted Spearman correlation: 0.25 for men, 0.26 for women; both P<0.01). After adjustment for age and Framingham risk score, the correlation remained significant (P=0.01) for both sexes. Further adjustment for body mass index attenuated the correlation coefficient for women (0.14, P=0.09) but not for men (0.19, P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: High CRP levels are associated with increased coronary calcification. Among individuals with elevated CRP, subclinical atherosclerosis may contribute to an increased risk for future cardiovascular events.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2002

Impact of age and sex on plasma natriuretic peptide levels in healthy adults.

Assays for natriuretic peptides have received considerable attention as potential screening tests for congestive heart failure and left ventricular dysfunction. However, information regarding the impact of age, sex, and other physiologic characteristics on natriuretic peptide levels is limited. We examined a healthy reference sample of 911 subjects (mean age 55 years, 62% women) from the Framingham Heart Study who were free of hypertension, valvular disease, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, obesity, coronary heart disease, congestive heart failure, and renal failure, and who had normal left ventricular systolic function. Plasma brain natriuretic peptide and N-terminal atrial natriuretic peptide levels were measured, and multivariable regression used to assess correlates of natriuretic peptide levels. The strongest predictors of higher natriuretic peptide levels were older age and female sex. Other multivariable predictors included lower diastolic blood pressure (higher pulse pressure), lower body mass index, and higher left atrial size. Reference limits were then formulated based on the empirical distribution of natriuretic peptide levels by gender both across all ages and partitioned by age. Age-pooled reference limits compared with age-specific limits classified a higher proportion of healthy elderly subjects (17% vs 2.5%), but a lower proportion of healthy young subjects (1% vs 2.5%) as "abnormal." We conclude that interpretation of natriuretic peptide levels should take into consideration gender and possibly age. The reference limits derived from this large, healthy community-based sample will aid in the identification of elevated natriuretic peptide levels in clinical practice.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Obesity and the risk of heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Extreme obesity is recognized to be a risk factor for heart failure. It is unclear whether overweight and lesser degrees of obesity also pose a risk. METHODS: We investigated the relation between the body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) and the incidence of heart failure among 5881 participants in the Framingham Heart Study (mean age, 55 years; 54 percent women). With the use of Cox proportional-hazards models, the body-mass index was evaluated both as a continuous variable and as a categorical variable (normal, 18.5 to 24.9; overweight, 25.0 to 29.9; and obese, 30.0 or more). RESULTS: During follow-up (mean, 14 years), heart failure developed in 496 subjects (258 women and 238 men). After adjustment for established risk factors, there was an increase in the risk of heart failure of 5 percent for men and 7 percent for women for each increment of 1 in body-mass index. As compared with subjects with a normal body-mass index, obese subjects had a doubling of the risk of heart failure. For women, the hazard ratio was 2.12 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.51 to 2.97); for men, the hazard ratio was 1.90 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.30 to 2.79). A graded increase in the risk of heart failure was observed across categories of body-mass index. The hazard ratios per increase in category were 1.46 in women (95 percent confidence interval, 1.23 to 1.72) and 1.37 in men (95 percent confidence interval, 1.13 to 1.67). CONCLUSIONS: In our large, community-based sample, increased body-mass index was associated with an increased risk of heart failure. Given the high prevalence of obesity in the United States, strategies to promote optimal body weight may reduce the population burden of heart failure.

Body Mass Index↗

PubMed2002

Mitral valve prolapse and atrial septal aneurysm: an evaluation in the Framingham Heart Study.

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Cohort Studies↗

PubMed2002

Serum potassium and risk of cardiovascular disease: the Framingham heart study.

BACKGROUND: Published studies of the association between serum potassium concentration and risk for cardiovascular disease in community-based populations have reported conflicting results. We sought to determine the association between serum potassium concentration and cardiovascular disease risk in the Framingham Heart Study. METHODS: A total of 3151 participants (mean age, 43 years; 48% men) in the Framingham Heart Study who were free of cardiovascular disease and not taking medications affecting potassium homeostasis had serum potassium levels measured (1979-1983). Proportional hazards models were used to determine the association of serum potassium concentration at baseline with the incidence of cardiovascular disease at follow-up. RESULTS: During mean follow-up of 16 years, 313 cardiovascular disease events occurred, including 46 cardiovascular disease-related deaths. After adjustment for age, serum potassium level was marginally associated with risk of cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 mg/dL increment, 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00-1.05; P =.02). However, after further adjustment for multiple confounders, serum potassium level was not significantly associated with cardiovascular disease risk (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.98-1.03). There were no significant associations between serum potassium level and cardiovascular disease-related death in either age- and sex-adjusted models (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.99-1.12) or multivariable-adjusted models (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.97-1.11). CONCLUSION: In our community-based sample of individuals free of cardiovascular disease and not taking medications that affect potassium homeostasis, serum potassium level was not associated with risk of cardiovascular disease.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Age and sex distribution of subclinical aortic atherosclerosis: a magnetic resonance imaging examination of the Framingham Heart Study.

Autopsy data demonstrate a correlation between subclinical aortic atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease. Therefore, noninvasive cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) of subclinical atherosclerosis may provide a novel measure of cardiovascular risk, but it has not been applied to an asymptomatic population-based cohort to establish age- and sex-specific normative data. Participants in the Framingham Heart Study offspring cohort who were free of clinically apparent coronary disease were randomly sampled from strata of sex, quartiles of age, and quintiles of Framingham Coronary Risk Score. Subjects (n=318, aged 60+/-9 years, range 36 to 78 years, 51% women) underwent ECG-gated T2-weighted black-blood thoracoabdominal aortic CMR scanning. CMR evidence of aortic atherosclerosis was noted in 38% of the women and 41% of the men. Plaque prevalence and all measures of plaque burden increased with age group and were greater in the abdomen than in the thorax for both sexes and across all age groups. In addition, the Framingham Coronary Risk Score was significantly correlated with all plaque prevalence and burden measures for women but only for men after age adjustment. These noninvasive CMR data extend the prior autopsy-based prevalence estimates of subclinical atherosclerosis and may help to lay the foundation for future studies of risk stratification and treatment of affected individuals.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Gender differences and normal left ventricular anatomy in an adult population free of hypertension. A cardiovascular magnetic resonance study of the Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to derive gender-specific cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) reference values for normative left ventricular (LV) anatomy and function in a healthy adult population of clinically relevant age. BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging is increasingly applied in the clinical setting, but age-relevant, gender-specific normative values are currently unavailable. METHODS: A representative sample of 318 Framingham Heart Study (FHS) Offspring participants free of clinically overt cardiovascular disease underwent CMR examination to determine LV end-diastolic and end-systolic volume (EDV and ESV, respectively), mass, ejection fraction (EF) and linear dimensions (wall thickness, cavity length). Subjects with a clinical history of hypertension or those with a systolic blood pressure > or =140 mm Hg or diastolic pressure > or =90 mm Hg at any FHS cycle examination were excluded, leaving 142 subjects (63 men, 79 women; age 57 +/- 9 years). RESULTS: All volumetric (EDV, ESV, mass) and unidimensional measures were significantly greater (p < 0.001) in men than in women and remained greater (p < 0.02) after adjustment for subject height. Volumetric measures were greater (p < 0.001) in men than in women after adjustment for body surface area (BSA), but there were increased linear dimensions in women after adjustment for BSA. In particular, end-diastolic dimension indexed to BSA was greater in women (p < 0.001) than in men. There were no gender differences in global LVEF (men = 0.69; women = 0.70). CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance measures of LV volumes, mass and linear dimensions differ significantly according to gender and body size. This study provides gender-specific normal CMR reference values, uniquely derived from a population-based sample of persons free of cardiovascular disease and clinical hypertension. These data may serve as a reference to identify LV pathology in the adult population.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Residual lifetime risk for developing hypertension in middle-aged women and men: The Framingham Heart Study.

CONTEXT: The long-term risk for developing hypertension is best described by the lifetime risk statistic. The lifetime risk for hypertension and trends in this risk over time are unknown. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the residual lifetime risk for hypertension in older US adults and to evaluate temporal trends in this risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Community-based prospective cohort study of 1298 participants from the Framingham Heart Study who were aged 55 to 65 years and free of hypertension at baseline (1976-1998). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Residual lifetime risk (lifetime cumulative incidence not adjusted for competing causes of mortality) for hypertension, defined as blood pressure of 140/90 mm Hg or greater or use of antihypertensive medications. RESULTS: The residual lifetime risks for developing hypertension and stage 1 high blood pressure or higher (greater-than-or-equal to 140/90 mm Hg regardless of treatment) were 90% in both 55- and 65-year-old participants. The lifetime probability of receiving antihypertensive medication was 60%. The risk for hypertension remained unchanged for women, but it was approximately 60% higher for men in the contemporary 1976-1998 period compared with an earlier 1952-1975 period. In contrast, the residual lifetime risk for stage 2 high blood pressure or higher (greater-than-or-equal to 160/100 mm Hg regardless of treatment) was considerably lower in both sexes in the recent period (35%-57% in 1952-1975 vs 35%-44% in 1976-1998), likely due to a marked increase in treatment of individuals with substantially elevated blood pressure. CONCLUSION: The residual lifetime risk for hypertension for middle-aged and elderly individuals is 90%, indicating a huge public health burden. Although the decline in lifetime risk for stage 2 high blood pressure or higher represents a major achievement, efforts should be directed at the primary prevention of hypertension.

Antihypertensive Agents↗