Changing disease patterns in AIDS.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to E J Beck.
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OBJECTIVE: To study the changes in morbidity, mortality, and survival patterns in a population of patients with AIDS in the United Kingdom from 1982 to 1989. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of inpatient and outpatient records of patients with AIDS. SUBJECTS: 347 Patients with AIDS, predominantly homosexual or bisexual men. SETTING: Departments of immunology and genitourinary medicine, St Mary's Hospital, London. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Presenting diagnosis of AIDS, occurrence of other opportunist diseases, cause of death, and survival since AIDS was diagnosed, in particular for those patients with Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia or Kaposi's sarcoma. RESULTS: The overall proportion of patients who developed P carinii pneumonia dropped from 56% (20/36) in 1984 to 24% (46/194) in 1989, although it has remained the index diagnosis in about half of new patients. Kaposi's sarcoma has decreased as index diagnosis from 30% (20/67) to 20% (15/74) over the same period, though the prevalence has remained constant at around 35%. P carinii pneumonia accounted for 46% (16/35) of known causes of death in 1986 but only 3% (1/31) in 1989. Conversely, deaths due to Kaposi's sarcoma rose from 14% (1/7) to 32% (10/31) between 1984 and 1989. Lymphoma accounted for an increased proportion of deaths among these patients with 16% (5/31) of deaths in 1989. Their median survival increased from 10 months in 1984-6 to 20 months in 1987. CONCLUSIONS: The changing patterns of disease in patients with AIDS have important implications both for health care provision and future medical research. Medical and nursing provision must be made for the increased morbidity of these diseases and the increased survival of these patients. Research should now be directed towards developing effective treatments for the opportunist infections which are currently more difficult to treat, the secondary malignancies of AIDS, as well as more effective immunorestorative treatments. Future changes in disease patterns must be recognised at an early stage so that resources can be adequately planned and allocated.
Among 347 AIDS patients seen at St Mary's Hospital, London between 1983 and 1989, cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease was observed in 75 (22%). Of these, 58 (77%) had CMV retinitis, 26 (35%) CMV colitis, and 12 (16%) had CMV infection diagnosed at other sites. Relapse occurred in 71%. A favourable response to the use of ganciclovir as induction therapy for CMV retinitis was observed in 92%. Relapse of CMV retinitis occurred in 54% at a median time of 97 days. Neutropenia was the most frequent and serious side-effect of ganciclovir, 76% patients having neutrophil counts less than 1.0 x 10(9)/l and 48% less than 0.5 x 10(9)/l at some stage of therapy. Thrombocytopenia was also common, and platelet counts of less than 50 x 10(9)/l occurred in 43% patients on ganciclovir. The concurrent use of zidovudine made the development of severe neutropenia and thrombocytopenia more likely. Median survival following the diagnosis of CMV disease increased from 5-8 months between 1984 and 1987, to over 12 months in 1988. Patients with CMV colitis had a worse prognosis than patients with CMV retinitis, with median survival of 4.5 and 7 months respectively. In conclusion, CMV is an important opportunist infection in AIDS and both the disease and its treatment cause considerable morbidity. Hence, it is important to develop more effective and less toxic forms of therapy for CMV infection.
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In this multicenter study 191 practitioners treated 532 patients with coronary artery disease and chronic stable angina pectoris by isosorbide-5-mononitrate (IS-5-MN), 20 mg 2-3 times daily. At the end of this period the frequency of anginal attacks was reduced by 83% and nitroglycerin consumption by 85.7% (p less than 0.0001). 40.1% of the patients categorized this treatment as very good, 28.6% as excellent and 23% as good. Serious adverse effects were observed in 2% of the patients and 6.4% of the patients discontinued treatment during the study because of inefficacy, infarction, death, or adverse effects. At the end of the study 90.2% of the patients were still on IS-5-MN. In conclusion, IS-5-MN is an effective treatment for patients with chronic stable angina pectoris. It is well tolerated, with minimal side effects.
Trends in the number of tests for HIV-1 antibody at a London sexually transmitted diseases clinic showed substantial changes between September 1985 and June 1988. From an average of 100 tests per month between September 1985 and August 1986, the average increased to 365 tests per month for September 1986 to August 1987. This levelled off at 243 tests per month between September 1987 and June 1988. The average number of positive tests per month between September 1985 and June 1988 remained constant, though the number of seropositive tests in females increased. Male and female populations displayed similar temporal patterns. The greatest increase was seen in the tests generated by heterosexual males and females with no other risk factors. This group generated 42% of the 8012 tests performed during the study period. The Clinic's catchment area predominantly included London and surrounding areas and temporal patterns were similar for residents from each of the Thames Regions. The temporal patterns observed coincided with periods of increased media attention on HIV infection/AIDS and involved campaigns by the popular press, television, Department of Health Education Authority. The increase in tests during the time of maximum media exposure, the subsequent plateau at a level substantially higher compared with the period preceding the media campaigns and the large increase in heterosexual males and females tested, all suggest that the campaigns have contributed to increasing awareness of HIV infection/AIDS as a major contemporary public health problem.
Between September 1985 and June 1988, 6923 people (4550 men and 2373 women) were tested for HIV-1 antibodies at a sexually transmitted disease clinic, London, UK. Of the 6923 individuals tested, 558 (8%) were seropositive, of whom 523 (94%) were men and 35 (6%) women. Of the seropositives, 84% were homosexual or bisexual men, 5% were intravenous drug users, 4% were heterosexual contacts of HIV seropositives, 4% had multiple risk factors, 2% were heterosexual contacts of central African partners and 1% were heterosexuals with no other risk factors. This prevalence pattern conforms to that observed in other industrialized nations. For the women, heterosexual intercourse with an HIV-infected partner, intravenous drug use and heterosexual contact with a partner from central Africa were the main risk factors for infection. The important risk factors among the men were heterosexual contact with an HIV-seropositive partner, being homosexual or bisexual, intravenous drug use and heterosexual contact with a resident from central Africa. heterosexual and homosexual transmission were implicated as the main routes for viral spread in this British population.
Factors determining the outcome of an episode of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) in 149 AIDS patients treated at St Mary's Hospital were identified and their importance on improved survival evaluated between 1984 and 1989. The proportion of fatal episodes of PCP decreased over time. Fatal compared with nonfatal episodes had lower mean alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient (82.5 mmHg vs 53.8 mmHg, P less than 0.001), mean haemoglobin level (11.2 g/dl vs 12.1 g/dl, P = 0.01), mean lymphocyte count (0.68 x 10(9)/l vs 0.92 x 10(9)/l, P = 0.05) and more coinfections (31% vs 5%, P less than 0.001). Over time, the most significant change which occurred was a reduction in alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient at time of first presentation with PCP (r = -0.37, P less than 0.001). Mean alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient declined from 79.9 mmHg in 1984 to 45.3 mmHg in 1989 (r = -0.88, P = 0.02), independently of zidovudine therapy or PCP prophylaxis. Patients were being treated at an earlier stage in their disease course as indicated by their reduced alveolar arterial oxygen gradient. This is due either to earlier patient presentation, earlier medical diagnosis or both. The widespread introduction of zidovudine and PCP prophylaxis may further contribute to improve morbidity and mortality patterns in the future.
For 227 episodes of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) treated at St Mary's between 1983 and 1989, factors predictive of fatal outcome were age, haemoglobin levels, peripheral lymphocyte count and alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient. Case fatality for the 47 empirically-treated episodes was significantly higher compared with the 180 cytologically proven episodes (55% vs 18%, chi 2 = 25.7, P less than 0.0001). Case fatality for episodes which could not be bronchoscoped was significantly higher compared with bronchoscopy negative cases (66% vs 25%, chi 2 = 4.5, P less than 0.05). Predictive factors for fatal outcome differed significantly for cases which could not be bronchoscoped and cytologically proven cases: haemoglobin level (10.7 g/dl vs 12.0 g/dl, P less than 0.001), lymphocyte count (0.64 x 10(9)/l vs 0.87 x 10(9)/l, P = 0.05) and oxygen gradient (77.7 mmHg vs 58.9 mmHg, P less than 0.02). Such differences were not observed between bronchoscopy negative and cytologically proven cases. Case fatality decreased significantly over time (b = -0.39, SE = 0.14, P less than 0.05). Total and non-fatal first time episodes displayed an inverse relationship between oxygen gradient and time (r = -0.22, P less than 0.006 and r = -0.24, P less than 0.01, respectively). Mean oxygen gradient of fatal episodes for sequential years increased significantly from 73 mmHg in 1983 to 102 mmHg in 1989 (r = 0.92, P less than 0.01). This suggests that medical intervention as well as presentation with less severe disease both contributed to improved case fatality over time.
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