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E J Kostelich

Publications and source records attributed to E J Kostelich.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Analyses of transient chaotic time series.

We address the calculation of correlation dimension, the estimation of Lyapunov exponents, and the detection of unstable periodic orbits, from transient chaotic time series. Theoretical arguments and numerical experiments show that the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm can be used to estimate the dimension of an underlying chaotic saddle from an ensemble of chaotic transients. We also demonstrate that Lyapunov exponents can be estimated by computing the rates of separation of neighboring phase-space states constructed from each transient time series in an ensemble. Numerical experiments utilizing the statistics of recurrence times demonstrate that unstable periodic orbits of low periods can be extracted even when noise is present. In addition, we test the scaling law for the probability of finding periodic orbits. The scaling law implies that unstable periodic orbits of high period are unlikely to be detected from transient chaotic time series.

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Perturbed on-off intermittency.

A basic requirement for on-off intermittency to occur is that the system possesses an invariant subspace. We address how on-off intermittency manifests itself when a perturbation destroys the invariant subspace. In particular, we distinguish between situations where the threshold for measuring the on-off intermittency in numerical or physical experiments is much larger than or is comparable to the size of the perturbation. Our principal result is that, as the perturbation parameter increases from zero, a metamorphosis in on-off intermittency occurs in the sense that scaling laws associated with physically measurable quantities change abruptly. A geometric analysis, a random-walk model, and numerical computations support the result.

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Bootstrap estimates of chaotic dynamics.

Bootstrap sampling is a nonparametric method for estimating the standard error of a statistic. This paper describes the application of bootstrap sampling to estimate the error in local linear approximations of the dynamics on chaotic attractors reconstructed from time series measurements. We present an algorithm for identifying influential points, i.e., observations with an especially large effect on a least-squares fit, and an algorithm to estimate the standard error of regression coefficients obtained from total least squares. We also consider the application of bootstrap methods to assess the uncertainty in Lyapunov exponent computations from chaotic time series.

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