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Biomedical subjects

E U Weber

Publications and source records attributed to E U Weber.

9 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2001

Risk as feelings.

Virtually all current theories of choice under risk or uncertainty are cognitive and consequentialist. They assume that people assess the desirability and likelihood of possible outcomes of choice alternatives and integrate this information through some type of expectation-based calculus to arrive at a decision. The authors propose an alternative theoretical perspective, the risk-as-feelings hypothesis, that highlights the role of affect experienced at the moment of decision making. Drawing on research from clinical, physiological, and other subfields of psychology, they show that emotional reactions to risky situations often diverge from cognitive assessments of those risks. When such divergence occurs, emotional reactions often drive behavior. The risk-as-feelings hypothesis is shown to explain a wide range of phenomena that have resisted interpretation in cognitive-consequentialist terms.

Cognition↗
PubMed1999

The interpretation of "likely" depends on the context, but "70%" is 70%--right? The influence of associative processes on perceived certainty.

Past research has demonstrated that interpretations of vague verbal forecasts (e.g., "likely") differ as a function of the context to which they refer. Experiments 1 and 2 demonstrate that precise numeric forecasts (e.g., "70%") are also susceptible to such context effects. Participants read descriptions of target events and experts' numeric forecasts. Perceptions of certainty, expressed on nonnumeric scales, differed as a function of context manipulations. The results of Experiments 3a, 3b, and 4 indicate that these effects can be mediated by perceptions of an event's representativeness independently of subjective base rates. The results are also consistent with the idea that two types of semi-independent processing--associative and rule based--can have important influences on perceptions of certainty. Implications of this distinction for research on judgments and decisions under uncertainty are discussed.

Humans↗
PubMed1999

Models and mosaics: investigating cross-cultural differences in risk perception and risk preference.

In this article, we describe a multistudy project designed to explain observed cross-national differences in risk taking between respondents from the People's Republic of China and the United States. Using this example, we develop the following recommendations for cross-cultural investigations. First, like all psychological research, cross-cultural studies should be model based. Investigators should commit themselves to a model of the behavior under study that explicitly specifies possible causal constructs or variables hypothesized to influence the behavior, as well as the relationship between those variables, and allows for individual, group, or cultural differences in the value of these variables or in the relationship between them. This moves the focus from a simple demonstration of cross-national differences toward a prediction of the behavior, including its cross-national variation. Ideally, the causal construct hypothesized and shown to differ between cultures should be demonstrated to serve as a moderator or a mediator between culture and observed behavioral differences. Second, investigators should look for converging evidence for hypothesized cultural effects on behavior by looking at multiple dependent variables and using multiple methodological approaches. Thus, the data collection that will allow for the establishment of conclusive causal connections between a cultural variable and some target behavior can be compared with the creation of a mosaic.

China↗
PubMed1993

Determinants of diagnostic hypothesis generation: effects of information, base rates, and experience.

Physicians generated diagnostic hypotheses for case histories for which 2 types of diagnoses were plausible, with one having a higher population base rate but less severe clinical consequences than the other. The number of clinical and background symptoms pointing towards the 2 diagnoses was factorially manipulated. The order and frequency with which physicians generated hypotheses varied with the amount of relevant clinical and background information and as a function of population incidence rates, with little evidence of base rate neglect. Availability of a hypothesis, made possible by diagnosis of a similar case before, also made doctors generate this diagnosis earlier and more frequently. Physicians' experience affected hypothesis generation solely by increasing the availability of similar cases. The results are consistent with the use of similarity-based hypothesis generation processes that operate on memory for prior cases.

Adult↗
PubMed1993

Dimensions of risk perception for financial and health risks.

This study of 29 MBA students compares two models of risk perception for both financial and health risk stimuli. The first, inspired by Luce and Weber's Conjoint Expected Risk (CER) model, uses five dimensions: probability of gain, loss and status quo, and expected benefit and harm. The second, inspired by the Slovic et al. psychometric model, employs seven dimensions: voluntariness, dread, control, knowledge, catastrophic potential, novelty, and equity. The CER-type model provided a better fit for most subjects and stimuli. Adding the psychological risk dimensions from the Slovic et al. model explained only modestly more variance. Relationships between the dimensions of the two models are described and the construction of a hybrid model explored.

Accidents↗
PubMed1985

Managing a low-incidence risk: the example of toxic shock syndrome.

This article demonstrates a methodology that allows individuals to reach a personal decision on the use of products which carry very small risks to health and life but also offer considerable benefits. A combination of the principles of dominance, extended dominance, and various methods of direct risk-benefit tradeoffs are shown to reduce the number of possible decisions regarding product use to the one optimal for the value structure of a particular individual. An historical examination of toxic-shock syndrome identifies tampons as a product with risks too small to warrant public intervention but too sizeable to be ignored. The methodology described here can be applied for all such products.

Decision Making↗
PubMed1981

Journal of experimental psychology: human perception and performance.

We examined the nonveridicality of visual direction produced by monocular viewing. In Experiment 1, 19 subjects pointed to a small light and moved a small light to their subjective median plane. The extent of constant error under monocular and binocular viewing conditions differed in both tasks (p less than .001). The monocular-binocular difference was larger when the viewing distance was 25 cm than when it was 50 cm (p less than .01). Also, correlations between phoria and monocular-binocular differences ranged from .58 to .77, depending on viewing distances and tasks. The effects of phoria within the context of Hering's .001). The monocular-binocular difference was larger when the viewing distance was 25 cm than when it was 50 cm (p less than .01). Also, correlations between phoria and monocular-binocular differences ranged from .58 to .77, depending on viewing distances and tasks. The effects of phoria within the context of Hering's .001). The monocular-binocular difference was larger when the viewing distance was 25 cm than when it was 50 cm (p less than .01). Also, correlations between phoria and monocular-binocular differences ranged from .58 to .77, depending on viewing distances and tasks. The effects of phoria within the context of Hering's principle of visual direction can account for these results. In Experiment 2, the same subjects adapted to phoria-induced error by placing a finger over a monocularly viewed target. The difference in their pointing responses before and after the task were reliable (p less than .005), and the correlations between phoria and the pre- to posttest differences were .45 and .77, depending on the number of adaptation trials. We argue that all monocular experiments dealing with visual direction should control for these effects.

Discrimination, Psychological↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Use of formal methods in medical decision making: a survey and analysis.

Apparent low usage of formal decision techniques by general clinicians has raised questions about dissemination methods and about the techniques' perceived usefulness. Two literature searches examined whether use of formal decision techniques among clinicians had indeed failed to increase from the 1970s to the 1980s. A general MEDLINE search for the period 1983-87 relative to 1973-77 indicated that usage of formal decision techniques had more than doubled. This increase, however, was due to increased coverage of formal decision techniques in specialist methods journals. A manual search of seven major clinical journals and a MEDLINE search restricted to the clinical journals of the manual search disclosed no increase in overall usage for the same time periods. MEDLINE detected only a small subset of the actual instances of formal method usage found by the manual search. Individual medical subspecialties were found to utilize different formal decision techniques to different degrees. The authors suggest interventions that may increase the usage of formal decision techniques among general clinicians.

Attitude↗