Meta-analysis without the mantra: a reply to Wilson and "weighted analysis".
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to E Wells-Parker.
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This study examines relationships between drinking problems and the frequency of drinking in eight types of places within a sample of convicted drinking drivers. Drinking problems were measured by two instruments, the Mortimer-Filkins Questionnaire (MFQ) and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) Core Questionnaire. Data were collected from convicted drinking drivers who were ordered by the court to attend the Mississippi Alcohol Safety Education Program (MASEP). Both the MFQ and the AUDIT were found to be more strongly related to the frequency of drinking in moving automobiles than to the frequency of drinking in any other type of place. This suggests that drinking drivers with severe drinking problems are more likely to drink in moving automobiles than are those with less severe problems. The strong linkage between severe alcohol problems and drinking in automobiles has important implications with respect to highway safety.
AIMS: This study compares the predictive efficacy of driving under the influence (DUI) screening instruments validated in previous studies, illustrates how variations in base rates of failure and selection ratios affect conclusions concerning the efficacy of different instruments, and develops evaluation standards to ensure valid comparisons of risk prediction instruments. DESIGN: The study: (1) examines a sample of 4815 DUI offenders to illustrate how variations in base rates of failure and selection ratios affect traditional measures of predictive efficacy, (2) uses such measures to compare the predictive efficacy of 10 instruments validated in previous studies, and (3) demonstrates the use of a measure of predictive efficacy which is relatively insensitive to the aforementioned variations. FINDINGS: While three instruments examined at specific cut-points consistently ranked highest on several measures of predictive efficacy, use of different evaluation standards produced substantively different conclusions regarding the efficacy of different instruments. Based on the analyses, standards for validation of risk prediction instruments were developed. CONCLUSIONS: The findings illustrate how failure to use equivalent standards have led to erroneous conclusions concerning the relative predictive efficacy of different risk prediction instruments. The standards developed in this study should facilitate equivalent comparisons of the predictive efficacy of risk prediction instruments.
Using Festinger's cognitive dissonance theory as a model, the extension to Barker's ecological theory, referred to as ecological dissonance theory, was developed. Designed to examine the motivational dynamics involved when environmental systems are in conflict with each other or with cognitive systems, ecological dissonance theory yielded five propositions which were tested in 10 studies. This summary of the studies suggests operationally defined measures of ecological dissonance may correlate with workers' satisfaction with their jobs, involvement with their jobs, alienation from their work, and to a lesser extent, workers' conflict resolution behavior and communication style.
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A meta-analysis of the efficacy of remediation with drinking/driving offenders included 215 independent evaluations identified through a comprehensive literature search. Study characteristics, including dimensions of methodological quality were coded using scales and protocols developed by expert panels. Better methodological quality (as indicated by group equivalence) was associated with smaller effect size and less variation in effect size. Among studies with adequate methods (as determined empirically through examination of effect size variation with quality), the average effect of remediation on drinking/driving recidivism was an 8-9% reduction over no remediation. A similar effect size was found for alcohol involved crashes. However, licensing actions tended to be associated with reduction in occurrence of non-alcohol events (e.g. non-alcohol crashes). Exploratory regression analysis and confirmatory within study analysis suggested that combinations of modalities--in particular those including education, psychotherapy/counseling and follow-up contact/probation--were more effective than other evaluated modes for reducing drinking/driving recidivism. Treatment effects are probably underestimated in the literature due to overemphasis on education as a treatment for all offenders and drinking/driving recidivism as the most frequent measure of outcome. Limitations of the primary literature and future research needs are discussed.
This study examines the utility of cluster-based classification schemes for DUI offenders. Variables from previous empirical typologies and multiple domains were used in a series of cluster analyses in order to examine replicability across independent samples, across clustering algorithms and across sets of psychometric indicators. The arbitrary nature of cluster solutions and the external validity of cluster-based schemes, with respect to an outcome criterion constructed synthetically from earlier research, was examined. Only three of eight cluster techniques (Ward's, K means, and complete linkage) yielded meaningful results. For these techniques, replicability was poor across samples, algorithms and sets of psychometric indicators. Results indicated that identified clusters were arbitrary. Although external validity analysis yielded positive results, the possibility that external validity was a function of underlying dimensions was discussed, as were other implications of the findings.
Female DUI offenders who participated in a controlled, random assignment DUI intervention study, the Mississippi DUI Probation Follow-Up Project, were compared to their male counterparts on demographic, drinker status and recidivism variables. In comparison to men, women in the project were less likely to be married, more likely to be between 30 and 50 years of age, less likely to have less than a 9th grade education, less likely to be screened as a high-problem-risk drinker, less likely to have prior DUI and public drunkenness arrests and less likely to recidivate. The effects of short-term rehabilitation, 1 year's probation and administration of the Life Activities Inventory-Current Status Questionnaire (LAI-CSQ) on the long-term recidivism rates of women were examined. The analysis for screened low-problem-risk women was inconclusive due to lack of statistical power. However, the repeated administration of the LAI-CSQ was detrimental for screened high-problem-risk women and tended to be detrimental for women with fewer than 12 years of education. Implications for intervening with female DUIs are discussed.
Eight types of drinking driver groups were compared on several personality and behavior traits. It was found that impaired drivers arrested after an accident or moving violation were significantly higher in hostility, psychopathic deviance, nontraffic arrests, frequency of impaired driving, accidents after drinking, and drinks consumed per week than impaired drivers caught in roadblocks. Neither impaired drivers stopped in roadblocks nor impaired drivers never arrested differed from nonimpaired drinking drivers or nondrinking drivers on most measures examined.
Scales to measure control-of-outcome expectancies and self-efficacy expectancies based on social comparisons were developed for adult females in the four life roles of occupation, parenting, marriage, and economic management. Internal consistency and construct validity of the scales were examined in two studies. Internal consistency estimates of six of the eight scales exceeded .70. A factor analysis within each role supported the distinction between control-of-outcome expectancies and self-efficacy expectancies. Construct validity was supported by finding the hypothesized relations between the developed scales and standard measures of self-esteem, depression,and locus of control. As hypothesized, the developed scales accounted for unique portions of the variance in role-specific coping orientation and role stress. Specifically, control-of-outcome expectancies predicted active or passive coping orientation in the personal roles of parenting and marriage. It was concluded that the developed scales might have utility for understanding coping and experienced stress in various life roles.
Using a cover story of the effects of alcohol on perceptual and motor abilities, two levels of alcohol consumed (moderate and none), two levels of alcohol expectancy (moderate and none), and two levels of sensation seeking (high and low) were combined to determine their effect on risk taking in a driving simulator. Ninety-six subjects were randomly assigned to eight conditions. Dependent variables were lane changes-cars passed and time at maximum speed. Results on lane-changes-cars passed indicated greater risk-taking in driving by high sensation seekers. Interaction of alcohol expectancy and sensation seeking indicated high sensation seekers took more risks when they believed they had consumed alcohol. Low sensation seekers became more cautious in driving when they believed they had consumed alcohol. Alcohol consumed did not produce a significant main effect or interaction.
Using long-term DUI (Driving Under the Influence of Alcohol) arrest recidivism data from a controlled study of DUI intervention effectiveness, interactions among DUI interventions, age, race, education, and alcohol severity were estimated using logit analysis. Data were collected in a 9-year follow-up study of the Mississippi DUI Probation Project. The effects of short-term interventions (alcohol education schools for low alcohol severity offenders and structured group interventions for high alcohol severity offenders) were specified by educational level. Short-term rehabilitation was modestly effective for those with less than 12 years of education, but less effective or detrimental for the more highly educated. The effects of probation were specified by age and education, being more effective for those under 30 years and 55 years or older than for the middle age group. Probation was most effective for well-educated older (55+) offenders. An analysis of the under 30 years group also suggested that probation was especially effective for young well-educated Minority offenders.
Multiple regression analysis was used to examine the relationship of five drinking reason factors to drinking locations and consumption variables within a random sample of drinking college students surveyed by telephone. Hypotheses relating self-reported accident involvement after drinking and two specific reason factors - Opposite Sex/Drunkenness and Pleasure - were tested. Both Pleasure and Opposite Sex/Drunkenness were directly related to quantity consumed and to drinking in several away-from-home locations. Opposite Sex/Drunkenness reasons and frequency of drinking in cars significantly contributed to identifying males who reported accident involvement following drinking.
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Using a cover story of the effects of alcohol on perceptual and motor abilities, three levels of alcohol consumed (high, moderate, and none) were combined with three levels of alcohol expected (high, moderate, and none) to determine their effects on risk-taking while driving. Thirty-nine subjects were randomly assigned to six conditions. A driving simulation task was employed; dependent variables were cars passed and total time at high speed. Results indicated greatest risk-taking, measured by cars passed and time spent at high speed, by subjects who believed they had consumed a moderate amount of alcohol. Actual amount of alcohol consumed produced no significant differences.
Comprehensive arrest histories were obtained for 353 DUI offenders who were referred to a probation and rehabilitation demonstration program. The average number of total offenses was 7.9, with 89% of all tracked offenders having more than one offense. Approximately 63% of all recorded offenses were other types of offenses besides DUI. The overall arrest history profile of the group suggested that many DUI offenders are habitual violators of other laws as well. To identify distinctive arrest profiles within the referral sample, a Q mode factor analysis followed by a discriminant function analysis was used to classify offenders into profile subgroups. Five distinctive subgroups emerged. A "low offense" group was characterized by the lowest average number of overall arrests and also contained all offenders with no arrest besides the index DUI arrest. A "mixed" group had a higher average number of total arrests than the "low offense" group and diverse types of offenses. A young "traffic" group was distinguished by many hazardous moving violations other than DUI. Two smaller and older groups--a "public drunkenness" group and a "license" group--had the highest average number of arrests including DUI, public drunkenness, license violations, equipment violations, disturbance arrests and assault arrests. These subgroups were found to differ on demographic variables and drinker status variables. The "public drunkenness" group was found to have the highest accident rate. Groups were compared to groups found in other cluster analyses. Also, treatment implications were discussed. It was suggested that treatment programs focusing exclusively on changing alcohol consumption behavior are not likely to reduce accident risk for some of the offender groups. For example, it was suggested that effective intervention for the "traffic" group should target driving behavior, whether drunk or sober, rather than focus exclusively on consumption behavior. Other alternatives are also discussed.
In a DUI offender sample, four drinking reason factors are regressed on alcohol consumption variables and frequency of drinking in seven types of locations. Drinking for "pleasure" and "opposite sex/drunkenness" reasons are associated with both quantity consumed per occasion and away-from-home locations such as automobiles, bars, and parties, suggesting high traffic accident risk. "Escapism" reasons are related to quantity consumed per occasion, but are only weakly associated with specific locations; and "sociability" reasons are associated with drinking in friends' homes, but are not related to high consumption levels. Implications for DUI countermeasures are discussed.
There were relationships between first-time drunken-driving offenses in an elderly sample and stressful life events, and between the continuation of problem drinking and lower levels of social support.