Biomedical subjects

Elizabeth A Hadly

Publications and source records attributed to Elizabeth A Hadly.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

Bayesian estimation of the timing and severity of a population bottleneck from ancient DNA.

In this first application of the approximate Bayesian computation approach using the serial coalescent, we demonstrated the estimation of historical demographic parameters from ancient DNA. We estimated the timing and severity of a population bottleneck in an endemic subterranean rodent, Ctenomys sociabilis, over the last 10,000 y from two cave sites in northern Patagonia, Argentina. Understanding population bottlenecks is important in both conservation and evolutionary biology. Conservation implications include the maintenance of genetic variation, inbreeding, fixation of mildly deleterious alleles, and loss of adaptive potential. Evolutionary processes are impacted because of the influence of small populations in founder effects and speciation. We found a decrease from a female effective population size of 95,231 to less than 300 females at 2,890 y before present: a 99.7% decline. Our study demonstrates the persistence of a species depauperate in genetic diversity for at least 2,000 y and has implications for modes of speciation in the incredibly diverse rodent genus Ctenomys. Our approach shows promise for determining demographic parameters for other species with ancient and historic samples and demonstrates the power of such an approach using ancient DNA.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Ancient DNA reveals Holocene loss of genetic diversity in a South American rodent.

Understanding how animal populations have evolved in response to palaeoenvironmental conditions is essential for predicting the impact of future environmental change on current biodiversity. Analyses of ancient DNA provide a unique opportunity to track population responses to prehistoric environments. We explored the effects of palaeoenvironmental change on the colonial tuco-tuco (Ctenomys sociabilis), a highly endemic species of Patagonian rodent that is currently listed as threatened by the IUCN. By combining surveys of modern genetic variation from throughout this species' current geographic range with analyses of DNA samples from fossil material dating back to 10,000 ybp, we demonstrate a striking decline in genetic diversity that is concordant with environmental events in the study region. Our results highlight the importance of non-anthropogenic factors in loss of diversity, including reductions in smaller mammals such as rodents.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Community inertia of Quaternary small mammal assemblages in North America.

One of the longest running debates in ecology is whether chance or determinism structures biotic communities, and this question is often studied by looking for the presence or absence of community inertia (lack of change) over time or space. Results have been equivocal. We adopted three tactics for a fresh approach: (i) allowing the answer to vary with the geographic, temporal, and taxonomic scale of study, (ii) using appropriate reference points for the amount of inertia in random biological systems, and (iii) using a robust approach for measurement of inertia. We examined fossil assemblages of mammalian communities across almost 1,000,000 years and at sites spanning approximately 3,500 km. We showed that in general there is good evidence for inertia but that the results change in a quantifiable fashion with taxonomic, spatial, and temporal scales. By using neutral theory we place a reference point on the degree of inertia and demonstrate that empirical mammalian communities show greater inertia than neutral communities over time scales >3,000 year. Although our results do not specifically reveal mechanism, they emphasize that deterministic forces are at work in structuring communities over millennia.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Temporal response of the tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) to 3,000 years of climatic variation.

BACKGROUND: Amphibians are sensitive indicators of environmental conditions and show measurable responses, such as changes in phenology, abundance and range limits to local changes in precipitation and temperature regimes. Amphibians offer unique opportunities to study the important ecological and evolutionary implications of responses in life history characteristics to climatic change. We analyzed a late-Holocene fossil record of the Tiger Salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) for evidence of population-level changes in body size and paedomorphosis to climatic change over the last 3000 years. RESULTS: We found a significant difference in body size index between paedomorphic and metamorphic individuals during the time interval dominated by the Medieval Warm Period. There is a consistent ratio of paedomorphic to metamorphic specimens through the entire 3000 years, demonstrating that not all life history characteristics of the population were significantly altered by changes in climate on this timescale. CONCLUSION: The fossil record of Ambystoma tigrinum we used spans an ecologically relevant timescale appropriate for understanding population and community response to projected climatic change. The population-level responses we documented are concordant with expectations based on modern environmental studies, and yield insight into population-level patterns across hundreds of generations, especially the independence of different life history characteristics. These conclusions lead us to offer general predictions about the future response of this species based on likely scenarios of climatic warming in the Rocky Mountain region.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Detecting past population bottlenecks using temporal genetic data.

Population bottlenecks wield a powerful influence on the evolution of species and populations by reducing the repertoire of responses available for stochastic environmental events. Although modern contractions of wild populations due to human-related impacts have been documented globally, discerning historic bottlenecks for all but the most recent and severe events remains a serious challenge. Genetic samples dating to different points in time may provide a solution in some cases. We conducted serial coalescent simulations to assess the extent to which temporal genetic data are informative regarding population bottlenecks. These simulations demonstrated that the power to reject a constant population size hypothesis using both ancient and modern genetic data is almost always higher than that based solely on modern data. The difference in power between the modern and temporal DNA approaches depends significantly on effective population size and bottleneck intensity and less significantly on sample size. The temporal approach provides more power in cases of genetic recovery (via migration) from a bottleneck than in cases of demographic recovery (via population growth). Choice of genetic region is critical, as mutation rate heavily influences the extent to which temporal sampling yields novel information regarding the demographic history of populations.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Studying the effect of environmental change on biotic evolution: past genetic contributions, current work and future directions.

Evolutionary geneticists currently face a major scientific opportunity when integrating across the rapidly increasing amount of genetic data and existing biological scenarios based on ecology, fossils or climate models. Although genetic data acquisition and analysis have improved tremendously, several limitations remain. Here, we discuss the feedback between history and genetic variation in the face of environmental change with increasing taxonomic and temporal scale, as well as the major challenges that lie ahead. In particular, we focus on recent developments in two promising genetic methods, those of 'phylochronology' and 'molecular clocks'. With the advent of ancient DNA techniques, we can now directly sample the recent past. We illustrate this amazing and largely untapped utility of ancient DNA extracted from accurately dated localities with documented environmental changes. Innovative statistical analyses of these genetic data expose the direct effect of recent environmental change on genetic endurance, or maintenance of genetic variation. The 'molecular clock' (assumption of a linear relationship between genetic distance and evolutionary time) has been used extensively in phylogenetic studies to infer time and correlation between lineage divergence time and concurrent environmental change. Several studies at both population and species scale support a persuasive relationship between particular perturbation events and time of biotic divergence. However, we are still a way from gleaning an overall pattern to this relationship, which is a prerequisite to ultimately understanding the mechanisms by which past environments have shaped the evolutionary trajectory. Current obstacles include as-yet undecided reasons behind the frequent discrepancy between molecular and fossil time estimates, and the frequent lack of consideration of extensive confidence intervals around time estimates. We suggest that use and interpretation of both ancient DNA and molecular clocks is most effective when results are synthesized with palaeontological (fossil) and ecological (life history) information.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Serial SimCoal: a population genetics model for data from multiple populations and points in time.

UNLABELLED: We present Serial SimCoal, a program that models population genetic data from multiple time points, as with ancient DNA data. An extension of SIMCOAL, it also allows simultaneous modeling of complex demographic histories, and migration between multiple populations. Further, we incorporate a statistical package to calculate relevant summary statistics, which, for the first time allows users to investigate the statistical power provided by, conduct hypothesis-testing with, and explore sample size limitations of ancient DNA data. AVAILABILITY: Source code and Windows/Mac executables at http://www.stanford.edu/group/hadlylab/ssc.html CONTACT: senka@stanford.edu.

Biological Evolution↗

PubMed2004

Genetic response to climatic change: insights from ancient DNA and phylochronology.

Understanding how climatic change impacts biological diversity is critical to conservation. Yet despite demonstrated effects of climatic perturbation on geographic ranges and population persistence, surprisingly little is known of the genetic response of species. Even less is known over ecologically long time scales pertinent to understanding the interplay between microevolution and environmental change. Here, we present a study of population variation by directly tracking genetic change and population size in two geographically widespread mammal species (Microtus montanus and Thomomys talpoides) during late-Holocene climatic change. We use ancient DNA to compare two independent estimates of population size (ecological and genetic) and corroborate our results with gene diversity and serial coalescent simulations. Our data and analyses indicate that, with population size decreasing at times of climatic change, some species will exhibit declining gene diversity as expected from simple population genetic models, whereas others will not. While our results could be consistent with selection, independent lines of evidence implicate differences in gene flow, which depends on the life history strategy of species.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Similarity of mammalian body size across the taxonomic hierarchy and across space and time.

Although it is commonly assumed that closely related animals are similar in body size, the degree of similarity has not been examined across the taxonomic hierarchy. Moreover, little is known about the variation or consistency of body size patterns across geographic space or evolutionary time. Here, we draw from a data set of terrestrial, nonvolant mammals to quantify and compare patterns across the body size spectrum, the taxonomic hierarchy, continental space, and evolutionary time. We employ a variety of statistical techniques including "sib-sib" regression, phylogenetic autocorrelation, and nested ANOVA. We find an extremely high resemblance (heritability) of size among congeneric species for mammals over approximately 18 g; the result is consistent across the size spectrum. However, there is no significant relationship among the body sizes of congeneric species for mammals under approximately 18 g. We suspect that life-history and ecological parameters are so tightly constrained by allometry at diminutive size that animals can only adapt to novel ecological conditions by modifying body size. The overall distributions of size for each continental fauna and for the most diverse orders are quantitatively similar for North America, South America, and Africa, despite virtually no overlap in species composition. Differences in ordinal composition appear to account for quantitative differences between continents. For most mammalian orders, body size is highly conserved, although there is extensive overlap at all levels of the taxonomic hierarchy. The body size distribution for terrestrial mammals apparently was established early in the Tertiary, and it has remained remarkably constant over the past 50 Ma and across the major continents. Lineages have diversified in size to exploit environmental opportunities but only within limits set by allometric, ecological, and evolutionary constraints.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Error in estimation of rate and time inferred from the early amniote fossil record and avian molecular clocks.

The best reconstructions of the history of life will use both molecular time estimates and fossil data. Errors in molecular rate estimation typically are unaccounted for and no attempts have been made to quantify this uncertainty comprehensively. Here, focus is primarily on fossil calibration error because this error is least well understood and nearly universally disregarded. Our quantification of errors in the synapsid-diapsid calibration illustrates that although some error can derive from geological dating of sedimentary rocks, the absence of good stem fossils makes phylogenetic error the most critical. We therefore propose the use of calibration ages that are based on the first undisputed synapsid and diapsid. This approach yields minimum age estimates and standard errors of 306.1 +/- 8.5 MYR for the divergence leading to birds and mammals. Because this upper bound overlaps with the recent use of 310 MYR, we do not support the notion that several metazoan divergence times are significantly overestimated because of serious miscalibration (sensuLee 1999). However, the propagation of relevant errors reduces the statistical significance of the pre-K-T boundary diversification of many bird lineages despite retaining similar point time estimates. Our results demand renewed investigation into suitable loci and fossil calibrations for constructing evolutionary timescales.

Animals↗