Biomedical subjects

Eric Post

Publications and source records attributed to Eric Post.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

Distribution-wide effects of climate on population densities of a declining migratory landbird.

1. Increases in global temperatures have created concern about effects of climatic variability on populations, and climate has been shown to affect population dynamics in an increasing number of species. Testing for effects of climate on population densities across a species' distribution allows for elucidation of effects of climate that would not be apparent at smaller spatial scales. 2. Using autoregressive population models, we tested for effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual population densities of a North American migratory landbird, the yellow-billed cuckoo Coccyzus americanus, across the species' breeding distribution over a 37-year period (1966-2002). 3. Our results indicate that both the NAO and ENSO have affected population densities of C. americanus across much of the species' breeding range, with the strongest effects of climate in regions in which these climate systems have the strongest effects on local temperatures. Analyses also indicate that the strength of the effect of local temperatures on C. americanus populations was predictive of long-term population decline, with populations that were more negatively affected by warm temperatures experiencing steeper declines. 4. Results of this study highlight the importance of distribution-wide analyses of climatic effects and demonstrate that increases in global temperatures have the potential to lead to additional population declines.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Predator disease out-break modulates top-down, bottom-up and climatic effects on herbivore population dynamics.

Human-introduced disease and climatic change are increasingly perturbing natural ecosystems worldwide, but scientists know very little about how they interact to affect ecological dynamics. An outbreak of canine parvovirus (CPV) in the wolf population on Isle Royale allowed us to test the transient effects of an introduced pathogen and global climatic variation on the dynamics of a three-level food chain. Following the introduction of CPV, wolf numbers plummeted, precipitating a switch from top-down to bottom-up regulation of the moose population; consequently, the influence of climate on moose population growth rate doubled. This demonstrates that synergistic interactions between pathogens and climate can lead to shifts in trophic control, and suggests that predators in this system may play an important role in dampening the effects of climate change on the dynamics of their prey.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Spatial synchrony of local populations has increased in association with the recent Northern Hemisphere climate trend.

According to ecological theory, populations whose dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation face increased extinction risk as environmental conditions become more synchronized spatially. This prediction is highly relevant to the study of ecological consequences of climate change. Recent empirical studies have indicated, for example, that large-scale climate synchronizes trophic interactions and population dynamics over broad spatial scales in freshwater and terrestrial systems. Here, we present an analysis of century-scale, spatially replicated data on local weather and the population dynamics of caribou in Greenland. Our results indicate that spatial autocorrelation in local weather has increased with large-scale climatic warming. This increase in spatial synchrony of environmental conditions has been matched, in turn, by an increase in the spatial synchrony of local caribou populations toward the end of the 20th century. Our results indicate that spatial synchrony in environmental conditions and the populations influenced by them are highly variable through time and can increase with climatic warming. We suggest that if future warming can increase population synchrony, it may also increase extinction risk.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Population response to climate change: linear vs. non-linear modeling approaches.

BACKGROUND: Research on the ecological consequences of global climate change has elicited a growing interest in the use of time series analysis to investigate population dynamics in a changing climate. Here, we compare linear and non-linear models describing the contribution of climate to the density fluctuations of the population of wolves on Isle Royale, Michigan from 1959 to 1999. RESULTS: The non-linear self excitatory threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model revealed that, due to differences in the strength and nature of density dependence, relatively small and large populations may be differentially affected by future changes in climate. Both linear and non-linear models predict a decrease in the population of wolves with predicted changes in climate. CONCLUSIONS: Because specific predictions differed between linear and non-linear models, our study highlights the importance of using non-linear methods that allow the detection of non-linearity in the strength and nature of density dependence. Failure to adopt a non-linear approach to modelling population response to climate change, either exclusively or in addition to linear approaches, may compromise efforts to quantify ecological consequences of future warming.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2002

Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate.

The hypothesis that animal population dynamics may be synchronized by climate is highly relevant in the context of climate change because it suggests that several populations might respond simultaneously to climatic trends if their dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation. The dynamics of many species throughout the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by a single large-scale climate system, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exerts highly correlated regional effects on local weather. But efforts to attribute synchronous fluctuations of contiguous populations to large-scale climate are confounded by the synchronizing influences of dispersal or trophic interactions. Here we report that the dynamics of caribou and musk oxen on opposite coasts of Greenland show spatial synchrony among populations of both species that correlates with the NAO index. Our analysis shows that the NAO has an influence in the high degree of cross-species synchrony between pairs of caribou and musk oxen populations separated by a minimum of 1,000 km of inland ice. The vast distances, and complete physical and ecological separation of these species, rule out spatial coupling by dispersal or interaction. These results indicate that animal populations of different species may respond synchronously to global climate change over large regions.

Animals↗

PubMed2002

Ecological responses to recent climate change.

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

Animals↗