Biomedical subjects

Ethel S Gilbert

Publications and source records attributed to Ethel S Gilbert.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2007

Leukemia following breast cancer: an international population-based study of 376,825 women.

PURPOSE: To quantify long-term temporal trends in the excess absolute risk (EAR) of secondary leukemia among breast cancer (BC) survivors, using multivariate analyses to evaluate the effects of subtype, age at BC diagnosis, attained age, and calendar year. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We identified 376,825 1-year survivors of BC within 4 nationwide, population-based cancer registries in Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and Norway (1943-2001). Estimates of EAR (per 100,000 person-years) were modeled using Poisson regression methods and cumulative risks calculated using a competing risk model. RESULTS: A total of 687 non-chronic lymphocytic leukemias (EAR = 9.05; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 7.5-10.7) was reported. Significantly elevated risks were observed for the first time for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) (EAR = 2.06; 95% CI = 1.3-2.9) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) (EAR = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.2-1.1), in addition to acute myeloid leukemia (AML) (EAR = 5.00; 95% CI = 3.9-6.2). Excesses of CML, ALL, AML and all leukemias combined persisted over 25 years after BC diagnosis. For all leukemias, EAR decreased with increasing calendar year (P = 0.04) of BC diagnosis. Risk for all leukemia and AML by calendar year of BC diagnosis depended on age at diagnosis. For women diagnosed with BC after 1985, the 10-year cumulative risk of leukemia for those diagnosed before and after age 50 was small, 0.10% and 0.14%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Although secondary leukemia is a rare event, BC survivors experience statistically significant excesses for at least 25 years after diagnosis, including CML and ALL. Decreasing leukemia risks in recent calendar years likely reflect changes in treatment.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Estimates of the cancer burden in Europe from radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident.

The Chernobyl accident, which occurred April 26, 1986, resulted in a large release of radionuclides, which were deposited over a very wide area, particularly in Europe. Although an increased risk of thyroid cancer in exposed children has been clearly demonstrated in the most contaminated regions, the impact of the accident on the risk of other cancers as well as elsewhere in Europe is less clear. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the human cancer burden in Europe as a whole from radioactive fallout from the accident. Average country- and region-specific whole-body and thyroid doses from Chernobyl were estimated using new dosimetric models and radiological data. Numbers of cancer cases and deaths possibly attributable to radiation from Chernobyl were estimated, applying state-of-the-art risk models derived from studies of other irradiated populations. Simultaneously, trends in cancer incidence and mortality were examined over time and by dose level. The risk projections suggest that by now Chernobyl may have caused about 1,000 cases of thyroid cancer and 4,000 cases of other cancers in Europe, representing about 0.01% of all incident cancers since the accident. Models predict that by 2065 about 16,000 (95% UI 3,400-72,000) cases of thyroid cancer and 25,000 (95% UI 11,000-59,000) cases of other cancers may be expected due to radiation from the accident, whereas several hundred million cancer cases are expected from other causes. Although these estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty, they provide an indication of the order of magnitude of the possible impact of the Chernobyl accident. It is unlikely that the cancer burden from the largest radiological accident to date could be detected by monitoring national cancer statistics. Indeed, results of analyses of time trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Europe do not, at present, indicate any increase in cancer rates -- other than of thyroid cancer in the most contaminated regions -- that can be clearly attributed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Acute myeloid leukemia following Hodgkin lymphoma: a population-based study of 35,511 patients.

Treatments for Hodgkin lymphoma are associated with large relative risks of acute myeloid leukemia (AML), but there are few estimates of the excess absolute risk (EAR), a useful measure of disease burden. One-year Hodgkin lymphoma survivors (N = 35,511) were identified within 14 population-based cancer registries in Nordic countries and North America from January 1, 1970, through December 31, 2001. We used Poisson regression analysis to model the EAR of AML, per 10,000 person-years. A total of 217 Hodgkin lymphoma survivors were diagnosed with AML (10.8 expected; unadjusted EAR = 6.2; 95% confidence interval = 5.4 to 7.1). Excess absolute risk for AML was highest during the first 10 years after Hodgkin lymphoma diagnosis but remained elevated thereafter. In subsequent analyses, adjusted for time since Hodgkin lymphoma diagnosis and presented for the 5-9 year interval, the EAR was statistically significantly (P < .001) larger in patients diagnosed with Hodgkin lymphoma at age 35 years and older than in those diagnosed before 35 years of age. The EAR of AML declined statistically significantly after 1984 (7.0 to 4.2 and 16.4 to 9.9 in the < 35 and > or = 35 age groups, respectively), which may be associated with modifications in chemotherapy.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Some statistical implications of dose uncertainty in radiation dose-response analyses.

Statistical dose-response analyses in radiation epidemiology can produce misleading results if they fail to account for radiation dose uncertainties. While dosimetries may differ substantially depending on the ways in which the subjects were exposed, the statistical problems typically involve a predominantly linear dose-response curve, multiple sources of uncertainty, and uncertainty magnitudes that are best characterized as proportional rather than additive. We discuss some basic statistical issues in this setting, including the bias and shape distortion induced by classical and Berkson uncertainties, the effect of uncertain dose-prediction model parameters on estimated dose-response curves, and some notes on statistical methods for dose-response estimation in the presence of radiation dose uncertainties.

Artifacts↗

PubMed2005

Second cancers among 40,576 testicular cancer patients: focus on long-term survivors.

BACKGROUND: Although second primary cancers are a leading cause of death among men with testicular cancer, few studies have quantified risks among long-term survivors. METHODS: Within 14 population-based tumor registries in Europe and North America (1943-2001), we identified 40,576 1-year survivors of testicular cancer and ascertained data on any new incident solid tumors among these patients. We used Poisson regression analysis to model relative risks (RRs) and excess absolute risks (EARs) of second solid cancers. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: A total of 2,285 second solid cancers were reported in the cohort. The relative risk and EAR decreased with increasing age at testicular cancer diagnosis (P < .001); the EAR increased with attained age (P < .001) but the excess RR decreased. Among 10-year survivors diagnosed with testicular cancer at age 35 years, the risk of developing a second solid tumor was increased (RR = 1.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.8 to 2.1). Risk remained statistically significantly elevated for 35 years (RR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.5 to 2.0; P < .001). We observed statistically significantly elevated risks, for the first time, for cancers of the pleura (malignant mesothelioma; RR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.7 to 5.9) and esophagus (RR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.0 to 2.6). Cancers of the lung (RR = 1.5, 95% CI = 1.2 to 1.7), colon (RR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.7 to 2.5), bladder (RR = 2.7, 95% CI = 2.2 to 3.1), pancreas (RR = 3.6, 95% CI = 2.8 to 4.6), and stomach (RR = 4.0, 95% CI = 3.2 to 4.8) accounted for almost 60% of the total excess. Overall patterns were similar for seminoma and nonseminoma patients, with lower risks observed for nonseminoma patients treated after 1975. Statistically significantly increased risks of solid cancers were observed among patients treated with radiotherapy alone (RR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.9 to 2.2), chemotherapy alone (RR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.3 to 2.5), and both (RR = 2.9, 95% CI = 1.9 to 4.2). For patients diagnosed with seminomas or nonseminomatous tumors at age 35 years, cumulative risks of solid cancer 40 years later (i.e., to age 75 years) were 36% and 31%, respectively, compared with 23% for the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Testicular cancer survivors are at statistically significantly increased risk of solid tumors for at least 35 years after treatment. Young patients may experience high levels of risk as they reach older ages. The statistically significantly increased risk of malignant mesothelioma in testicular cancer survivors has, to our knowledge, not been observed previously in a cohort of patients treated with radiotherapy.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Health effects from fallout.

This paper primarily discusses health effects that have resulted from exposures received as a result of above-ground nuclear tests, with emphasis on thyroid disease from exposure to 131I and leukemia and solid cancers from low dose rate external and internal exposure. Results of epidemiological studies of fallout exposures in the Marshall Islands and from the Nevada Test Site are summarized, and studies of persons with exposures similar to those from fallout are briefly reviewed (including patients exposed to 131I for medical reasons and workers exposed externally at low doses and low dose rates). Promising new studies of populations exposed in countries of the former Soviet Union are also discussed and include persons living near the Semipalatinsk Test Site in Kazakhstan, persons exposed as a result of the Chernobyl accident, and persons exposed as a result of operations of the Mayak Nuclear Plant in the Russian Federation. Very preliminary estimates of cancer risks from fallout doses received by the United States population are presented.

Health↗