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Ewout W Steyerberg

Publications and source records attributed to Ewout W Steyerberg.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2007

Patients with Barrett's esophagus perceive their risk of developing esophageal adenocarcinoma as low.

BACKGROUND: The risk of developing esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) for patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) is approximately 0.5% per year. OBJECTIVE: To investigate how patients with BE estimate and perceive their risk of developing EAC. DESIGN: Questionnaire study. SETTING: Patients with BE who were undergoing surveillance endoscopy based on histologic and flow cytometric results. PATIENTS: A total of 192 patients with BE were included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS: Individual patients were asked to estimate the numerical risk to develop EAC for patients with BE in general and for themselves. How patients perceived their own risk was measured on a scale from "very small" to "very large." RESULTS: At least 1 question was filled out by 169 patients (88% response). Sixty percent of respondents underestimated the numerical risk for patients with BE, in general, to develop EAC, while even more patients (69%) underestimated their own risk. Most respondents perceived their own risk as very small or small (63%). LIMITATIONS: Risk estimations may depend on the response scale used. CONCLUSIONS: Most patients with BE underestimated the numerical risk and perceived their risk of developing EAC as (very) low. Despite a low perceived risk, all patients in this group adhered to endoscopic surveillance.

Adenocarcinoma↗
PubMed2006

Predictors of stroke within 30 days in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes.

AIMS: Stroke is an uncommon but serious complication after non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). We aimed to identify predictors of stroke within 30 days in patients who suffered NSTE-ACS. METHODS AND RESULTS: We pooled data from six trials (n=31 402) that randomized NSTE-ACS patients either to platelet glycoprotein (GP) IIb/IIIa receptor blockers or to placebo/control therapy. Potential predictors of stroke included treatment, demographic, and clinical characteristics. We identified predictors using univariable and multivariable logistic models, and their performance was evaluated with calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) and discrimination (c-statistic). We found 228 (0.7%) all-cause strokes: 155 (0.5%) non-haemorrhagic, 20 (0.06%) haemorrhagic, and 53 without computed tomography (CT) confirmation. Patients with any type of stroke had a 30-day mortality of 25%. Randomization to GP IIb/IIIa receptor blockers was not significantly associated with all-cause stroke [OR (95% CI) 1.08 (0.83-1.41)]. Older age [OR per 10-year increase 1.5 (1.3-1.7)], prior stroke [2.1 (1.4-3.1)], and elevated heart rate [per 10-beat increase 1.1 (1.0-1.2)] were the strongest predictors of 30-day all-cause stroke. Similar predictors were found for non-haemorrhagic and haemorrhagic strokes. Smoking, previous myocardial infarction, diabetes, and hypertension were not independent predictors of all-cause stroke. The multivariable model to predict all-cause stroke was well calibrated, but its discrimination was only moderate [c-statistic 0.69 (0.65-0.72)]. CONCLUSION: Stroke is a rare complication occurring early after NSTE-ACS, but is associated with high mortality. We found no evidence that GP IIb/IIIa receptor blockers increase stroke risks. A few clinical characteristics predicted higher stroke risks. Thus, incident strokes in NSTE-ACS patients remain largely unexplained.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Effects of platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa receptor blockers in non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndromes: benefit and harm in different age subgroups.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the beneficial and harmful effects of platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa receptor blockers in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS) depend on age. METHODS: A meta-analysis of six trials of platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa receptor blockers in patients with NSTE-ACS (PRISM, PRISM-PLUS, PARAGON-A, PURSUIT, PARAGON-B, GUSTO IV-ACS; n = 31 402) was performed. We applied multivariable logistic regression analyses to evaluate the drug effects on death or non-fatal myocardial infarction at 30 days, and on major bleeding, by age subgroups (<60, 60-69, 70-79, > or =80 years). We quantified the reduction of death or myocardial infarction as the number needed to treat (NNT), and the increase of major bleeding as the number needed to harm (NNH). RESULTS: Subgroups had 11 155 (35%), 9727 (31%), 8468 (27%) and 2049 (7%) patients, respectively. The relative benefit of platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa receptor blockers did not differ significantly (p = 0.5) between age subgroups (OR (95% CI) for death or myocardial infarction: 0.86 (0.74 to 0.99), 0.90 (0.80 to 1.02), 0.97 (0.86 to 1.10), 0.90 (0.73 to 1.16); overall 0.91 (0.86 to 0.99). ORs for major bleeding were 1.9 (1.3 to 2.8), 1.9 (1.4 to 2.7), 1.6 (1.2 to 2.1) and 2.5 (1.5-4.1). Overall NNT was 105, and overall NNH was 90. The oldest patients had larger absolute increases in major bleeding, but also had the largest absolute reductions of death or myocardial infarction. Patients > or =80 years had half of the NNT and a third of the NNH of patients <60 years. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with NSTE-ACS, the relative reduction of death or non-fatal myocardial infarction with platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa receptor blockers was independent of patient age. Larger absolute outcome reductions were seen in older patients, but with a higher risk of major bleeding. Close monitoring of these patients is warranted.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Prediction of MLH1 and MSH2 mutations in Lynch syndrome.

CONTEXT: Lynch syndrome is caused primarily by mutations in the mismatch repair genes MLH1 and MSH2. OBJECTIVES: To analyze MLH1/MSH2 mutation prevalence in a large cohort of patients undergoing genetic testing and to develop a clinical model to predict the likelihood of finding a mutation in at-risk patients. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Personal and family history were obtained for 1914 unrelated probands who submitted blood samples starting in the year 2000 for full gene sequencing of MLH1/MSH2. Genetic analysis was performed using a combination of sequence analysis and Southern blotting. A multivariable model was developed using logistic regression in an initial cohort of 898 individuals and subsequently prospectively validated in 1016 patients. The complex model that we have named PREMM(1,2) (Prediction of Mutations in MLH1 and MSH2) was developed into a Web-based tool that incorporates personal and family history of cancer and adenomas. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Deleterious mutations in MLH1/MSH2 genes. RESULTS: Overall, 14.5% of the probands (130/898) carried a pathogenic mutation (MLH1, 6.5%; MSH2, 8.0%) in the development cohort and 15.3% (155/1016) in the validation cohort, with 42 (27%) of the latter being large rearrangements. Strong predictors of mutations included proband characteristics (presence of colorectal cancer, especially > or =2 separate diagnoses, or endometrial cancer) and family history (especially the number of first-degree relatives with colorectal or endometrial cancer). Age at diagnosis was particularly important for colorectal cancer. The multivariable model discriminated well at external validation, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.84). CONCLUSIONS: Personal and family history characteristics can accurately predict the outcome of genetic testing in a large population at risk of Lynch syndrome. The PREMM(1,2) model provides clinicians with an objective, easy-to-use tool to estimate the likelihood of finding mutations in the MLH1/MSH2 genes and may guide the strategy for molecular evaluation.

Adaptor Proteins, Signal Transducing↗
PubMed2006

Surgical mortality in patients with esophageal cancer: development and validation of a simple risk score.

PURPOSE: Surgery has curative potential in a proportion of patients with esophageal cancer, but is associated with considerable perioperative risks. We aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for surgical mortality that could be applied to administrative data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analyzed 3,592 esophagectomy patients from four cohorts. We applied logistic regression analysis to predict mortality occurring within 30 days after esophagectomy for 1,327 esophageal cancer patients older than 65 years of age, diagnosed between 1991 and 1996 in the linked Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER)--Medicare database. A simple score chart for preoperative risk assessment of surgical mortality was developed and validated on three other cohorts, including 714 SEER-Medicare patients diagnosed between 1997 and 1999, 349 patients from a population-based registry in the Netherlands diagnosed between 1993 and 2001, and 1,202 patients from a referral hospital in the Netherlands diagnosed between 1980 and 2002. RESULTS: Surgical mortality in the four cohorts was 11% (147 of 1,327), 10% (74 of 714), 7% (25 of 349), and 4% (45 of 1,202), respectively. Predictive patient characteristics included age, comorbidity (cardiac, pulmonary, renal, hepatic, and diabetes), preoperative radiotherapy or combined chemoradiotherapy, and a relatively low hospital volume. At validation, the simple score showed good agreement of predicted risks with observed mortality rates (calibration), but low discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.58 to 0.66). CONCLUSION: A simple risk score combining clinical characteristics along with hospital volume to predict surgical mortality after esophagectomy from administrative data may form a basis for risk adjustment in quality of care assessment.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Value of the HLA-DRB1 shared epitope for predicting radiographic damage in rheumatoid arthritis depends on the individual patient risk profile.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the influence of individual patient risk profiles on the value of the HLA-DRB1 shared epitope (SE) as a predictor of severe erosive damage in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: Patient characteristics, clinical signs and symptoms, rheumatoid factor (RF) status, and HLA-DRB1 genotypes were available for 154 Caucasian women with RA. Risk profiles were defined by non-genetic factors that predict severe erosive disease. The additional value of the SE was defined by the likelihood ratios (LR) of SE presence and absence, which were calculated at the individual patient level. RESULTS: In the total population, the LR of SE presence was 1.42 and the LR of SE absence was 0.37, corresponding to an odds ratio of 3.9, indicating a substantially higher risk of severe erosive disease in those with the SE compared to those without. The LR of SE presence and absence varied depending on the risk profile of the women, from 1.01 to 2.25 for SE presence and 0.22 to 0.49 for SE absence. Considering all the patient characteristics, SE status was most significantly related to RF status. Consequently, the LR of SE presence and absence were higher for RF-negative women compared to RF-positive women (SE presence 1.77 vs 1.40, p < 0.001 and SE absence 0.38 vs 0.30, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The additional value of SE testing for predicting severe erosive disease varies according to patient risk profiles. Given the likely availability of genetic and other novel tests in the future, information about the additional value of test results is needed to ensure the optimal use of such testing in the management of RA.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

A functional polymorphism in the glucocorticoid receptor gene and its relation to cardiovascular disease risk in familial hypercholesterolemia.

CONTEXT: Individuals with the functional ER22/23EK variant in the glucocorticoid receptor gene are relatively resistant to the downstream consequences of glucocorticoids. Evidence suggests that carriers have a more favorable cardiovascular risk profile, but the relationship between this ER22/23EK variant and cardiovascular disease has not been hitherto assessed. OBJECTIVE: We, therefore, determined whether carriership of the ER22/23EK improves cardiovascular disease risk in patients with severe hypercholesterolemia. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In a multicenter cohort study, 2024 patients with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia, aged 18 yr and older, were genotyped for the ER22/23EK polymorphism. Patients were identified at lipid clinics throughout The Netherlands between 1989 and 2002. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Seventy-six (7.8%) of 977 men and 72 (6.9%) of 1047 women were carriers of the ER22/23EK variant. A total of 395 men and 247 women had a cardiovascular event. In contrast to expected results, we observed no significant association of the ER22/23EK variant with cardiovascular disease risk (men: relative risk, 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.50-1.14; P = 0.2; women: relative risk, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-2.28; P = 0.2). However, we found a significant interaction between gender and the polymorphism on cardiovascular disease (P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of individuals with very high risk of cardiovascular disease, the association between the functional ER22/23EK polymorphism and cardiovascular risk was not significant overall, although it varied significantly by gender.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Predicting retroperitoneal histology in postchemotherapy testicular germ cell cancer: a model update and multicentre validation with more than 1000 patients.

OBJECTIVES: Surgical resection of postchemotherapy retroperitoneal lymph nodes is often performed in patients with advanced nonseminomatous testicular germ cell cancer. We previously developed a model to predict the probability that the lymph nodes contain only necrotic or fibrotic (benign) tissue versus mature teratoma and viable cancer (tumour) to identify patients who actually need resection. The present study used an updated model with new patient data and studied the validity of the updated model across various settings. METHODS: We combined data of 544 patients from the original model with data of 550 new patients and performed a new logistic regression analysis, which included the same six predictors: histology of the primary tumour, prechemotherapy serum levels of alpha-fetoprotein, human chorionic gonadotropin, lactate dehydrogenase, residual mass size measured on computed tomography, and change in mass size. The validity of the updated model was studied in individual centres. Calibration of the predicted probabilities was assessed graphically and with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Discrimination was studied with the concordance (c)-statistic. RESULTS: The updated model had slightly different, although more precise, regression coefficients. Statistically nonsignificant Hosmer-Lemeshow tests confirmed good calibration in most centres. The c-statistic for all centres except one exceeded 0.80. The updated model was valid over the complete range of predicted probabilities across a broad spectrum of centres. CONCLUSIONS: This finding gives confidence in the applicability of the model to select patients for resection, particularly patients with small residual masses and low predicted probabilities of benign tissue (i.e., substantial predicted risks of residual tumour).

Humans↗
PubMed2006

Survival of non-seminomatous germ cell cancer patients according to the IGCC classification: An update based on meta-analysis.

The International Germ Cell Consensus (IGCC) Classification distinguishes patients with non-seminomatous germ cell tumours (NSGCT) with a good, intermediate or poor prognosis, with a reported 5-year overall survival of 92%, 80% and 48%, respectively. Since the IGCC classification was based on patients treated between 1975 and 1990, we aimed to investigate whether survival has improved for more recently treated patients. We did a systematic search of the literature and included studies on survival of patients with NSGCT, treated after 1989 and classified according to the IGCC classification. Survival estimates of selected studies were pooled using meta-analytic techniques. We included 10 papers, describing 1775 patients with NSGCT with good (n = 1087), intermediate (n = 232), or poor (n = 456) prognosis. Pooled 5-year survival estimates were 94%, 83% and 71%, respectively. Since the publication of the IGCC classification, there was a small increase in survival for good and intermediate prognosis patients, and a large increase in survival for patients with a poor prognosis. This increase is most likely due to both more effective treatment strategies and more experience in treating NSGCT patients.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Genomic analysis of Barrett's esophagus after ablative therapy: persistence of genetic alterations at tumor suppressor loci.

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a major predisposing factor for the development of esophageal adenocarcinoma. Current strategies for treatment of BE, both dysplastic and nondysplastic, include photodynamic therapy (PDT) and argon plasma coagulation (APC). However, the effect of ablative therapy at the genetic level is unclear. We performed loss of heterozygosity (LOH) analysis of BE in baseline and follow-up biopsy specimens from 21 patients with BE (17 male, 4 female) treated with PDT and/or APC. At baseline, 14 patients had intestinal metaplasia without dysplasia (MET), 4 low-grade dysplasia (LGD) and 3 high-grade dysplasia (HGD). LOH was assessed using a panel of 9 polymorphic markers for evaluation of the P53 gene on 17p, P16 on 9p, DCC and SMAD4 on 18q and the APC gene on 5q. The tissue specimens obtained at baseline (t = 0) were analysed, as well as the first (t = 1; mean interval: 4 months) and last (t = 2; mean interval: 8 months) available biopsy with residual or recurrent BE after ablation. At t = 0, allelic loss was detected of 5q in 27%, 9p in 56%, 17p in 31% and 18q in 6% of informative cases. At t = 1 (18 patients with persistent MET and 3 with LGD) and at t = 2 (8 MET, 2 LGD), the LOH patterns were not statistically different from t = 0. Further, multiple genetic lineages before and after therapy were detected in 15 cases illustrating the multiclonal nature of BE. We conclude that recurrent and/or persistent BE after ablative therapy still contains genetic alterations associated with malignant progression to cancer. Therefore, the goal of treatment should be the complete elimination of Barrett's mucosa.

Adenocarcinoma↗
PubMed2006

Subgroup analyses in therapeutic cardiovascular clinical trials: are most of them misleading?

BACKGROUND: Treatment decisions in clinical cardiology are directed by results from randomized clinical trials (RCTs). We studied the appropriateness of the use and interpretation of subgroup analysis in current therapeutic cardiovascular RCTs. METHODS: We reviewed main reports of phase 3 cardiovascular RCTs with at least 100 patients, published in 2002 and 2004, and from major journals (Circulation, J Am Coll Cardiol, Am Heart J, Am J Cardiol, N Engl J Med, Lancet, JAMA, BMJ, Ann Intern Med). Information on subgroups included prespecification, number, interaction test use, significant subgroups found, and emphasis on findings. We examined appropriateness of reporting and differences according to sample size, overall trial result, and CONSORT adoption. RESULTS: We selected 63 RCTs, with a median of 496 (range 100-15,245) patients. Thirty-nine RCTs were reported with subgroup analyses and 26 with > 5 subgroups. No trial was specifically powered to detect subgroup effects, and only 14 RCTs were reported with fully prespecified subgroups. Only 11 RCTs were reported with interaction tests. Furthermore, 21 RCTs were reported with claims of significant subgroups and 15 with equal or more emphasis to subgroups than to the overall results. Subgroup analyses in large RCTs (> 500 patients) were reported more often than in small ones (24/30 vs 15/33, P = .005). No differences were found according to overall result (positive/negative) or CONSORT adoption. CONCLUSIONS: Subgroup analyses in recent cardiovascular RCTs were reported with several shortcomings, including a lack of prespecification and testing of a large number of subgroups without the use of the statistically appropriate test for interaction. Reporting of subgroup analysis needs to be substantially improved because emphasis on these secondary results may mislead treatment decisions.

Cardiovascular Diseases↗
PubMed2006

Prediction of mortality risk in the elderly.

PURPOSE: Ways to predict the risk of cardiovascular (CV) events or all-cause mortality have largely been derived from populations in which old and very old subjects were underrepresented. We set out to estimate the incremental prognostic utility of inflammation and atherosclerosis markers in the prediction of all-cause and CV mortality in elderly men. METHODS: In a prospective population-based cohort study, conventional CV risk factors were documented in 403 independently living elderly men. C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin (IL)-6 levels were measured. Carotid plaques were assessed by ultrasound. Analyses were performed with proportional hazards analyses, and bootstrapping was used for internal validation. Main outcome was CV and all-cause mortality occurring during 4 years of follow-up. RESULTS: Increasing tertiles of CRP, IL-6, and number of plaques were independently associated with all-cause and CV mortality. With information on age, carotid plaques, IL-6, and CRP yielded good discriminatory power for all-cause and CV mortality: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% confidence interval), 0.76 (0.70-0.82) and 0.74 (0.68-0.80), respectively. Combined use of only IL-6 and plaque burden allowed identification of subjects with low and high mortality risk. The Framingham PROCAM and a Dutch Risk Function poorly predicted mortality risk, similar or worse than a model using age alone. CONCLUSION: In the old and very old, IL-6 and number of carotid plaques are powerful predictors of mortality risk in the years to come. Conventional risk scores seem to perform unsatisfactorily.

Aged↗
PubMed2006

A new esophageal stent design (Niti-S stent) for the prevention of migration: a prospective study in 42 patients.

BACKGROUND: Covered, rather than uncovered, metal stents are used for the palliation of dysphagia from esophageal cancer, but a major drawback is the risk of stent migration, which occurs in up to 20% of patients. To overcome this problem, a double-layered stent, the Niti-S stent (Taewong Medical, Seoul, Korea), has been developed. The Niti-S stent consists of an inner polyurethane layer to prevent tumor ingrowth and an outer uncovered nitinol wire tube to allow the mesh of the stent to embed itself in the esophageal wall. METHODS: Between June 2003 and May 2004, 42 patients with malignant dysphagia caused by inoperable carcinoma of the esophagus or gastric cardia were treated with a Niti-S stent. Patients were prospectively followed and data collection focused on recurrent dysphagia, functional outcome, complications, and survival. RESULTS: At 4 weeks, the dysphagia score had significantly improved from a median of 3 (liquids only) to 0 (ability to eat a normal diet). Five of 42 (12%) patients with a Niti-S stent developed recurrent dysphagia, mainly due to tissue overgrowth (2 of 42; 5%) and stent migration (3 of 42; 7%). Major complications (perforation, 1; aspiration pneumonia, 2; hemorrhage, 2) occurred in 5 of 42 (12%) patients. Pain following stent placement was observed in 5 of 42 (12%) patients, and symptomatic gastroesophageal reflux occurred in 2 of 42 (5%) patients. CONCLUSIONS: The Niti-S stent provides symptomatic relief of malignant dysphagia and effectively reduces recurrent dysphagia. Its double-layered design is probably important in preventing migration. In addition, the complete covering of the Niti-S stent may be a factor in preventing tissue overgrowth at both ends of the stent.

Adenocarcinoma↗
PubMed2006

Colorectal neoplasia in veterans is associated with Barrett's esophagus but not with proton-pump inhibitor or aspirin/NSAID use.

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that Barrett's esophagus (BE) is associated with an increased risk of developing colorectal neoplasia, but this has not been reported consistently. AIM: To study whether BE is associated with an increased risk of colorectal neoplasia, and if it is, whether it is dependent on use of proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) or aspirin and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). DESIGN: Case-control study. SETTING: Endoscopic database of the Palo Alto Veterans Affairs Health Care System. POPULATION: 268 veterans with BE were matched with 268 controls without BE. INTERVENTION: Controls had undergone upper GI endoscopy within 14 days of the corresponding case. Colonoscopy was performed within 6 months in cases and controls. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Development of colorectal neoplasia. RESULTS: Colorectal neoplasia was present in 162 of 268 (60%) BE patients and in 105 of 268 (40%) controls (p < 0.001). The presence of BE (odds ratio [OR] 2.02: 95% CI [1.35, 3.04]), but also increasing age (OR 1.24 per decade: 95% CI [1.04, 1.48]) and alcohol use (OR 1.70: 95% CI [1.16, 2.50]) were associated with an increased risk of colorectal neoplasia in multivariable logistic regression analysis, whereas PPIs (OR 0.99: 95% CI [0.66, 1.48]) and aspirin/NSAIDs (OR 0.90: 95% CI [0.61, 1.33]) had no meaningful effect. LIMITATIONS: This was a retrospective study in mostly male veterans. CONCLUSIONS: Veterans with BE are at an increased risk of developing colorectal neoplasia. This association is independent from the use of PPIs or aspirin/NSAIDs.

Aged↗
PubMed2006

Staging of esophageal carcinoma in a low-volume EUS center compared with reported results from high-volume centers.

BACKGROUND: It is well known that a learning curve exists for performing EUS. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the number of EUS investigations performed in a center affects the results of esophageal cancer staging. DESIGN: We compared EUS in the evaluation of T stage and the presence of regional and celiac lymph nodes in a low-volume center where <50 EUS/endoscopist/y were performed with reported results from 7 high-volume EUS centers. SETTING: A reference center for esophageal cancer (>90 cases/y) but a low-volume center for EUS when it comes to individual endoscopists. PATIENTS: From 1994 to 2003, 244 patients underwent EUS, without specific measures to pass a stenotic tumor or FNA and with postoperative TNM stage as the criterion standard in the low-volume EUS center. In the high-volume centers, 670 EUS investigations for esophageal cancer were performed, if needed, with dilation, and with postoperative TNM stage and/or FNA as the criterion standard. INTERVENTIONS: Retrospective analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS: Sensitivity and specificity of EUS for esophageal cancer staging. RESULTS: In the low-volume center, results of EUS for T3 staging in patients in whom passage of the EUS probe was possible were almost comparable for sensitivity (85% vs 88%-94%) but were lower for specificity (57% vs 75%-90%), whereas both sensitivity (58% vs 75%-90%) and specificity (87% vs 94%-97%) for T1 or T2 stages were lower than those reported in the high-volume centers. In the low-volume center, sensitivities of EUS for regional (45% vs 63%-89%) and celiac (19% vs 72%-83%) lymph nodes were lower, whereas specificities (75% vs 63%-82% and 99% vs 85%-100%, respectively) were comparable with those from high-volume centers. Results in the low-volume EUS center were worse if the EUS probe could not pass the stricture, which occurred in almost 30% of patients. LIMITATIONS: Both FNA and dilation before EUS for stenotic tumors were not performed in the low-volume EUS center. CONCLUSIONS: The results of EUS performed in a low-volume EUS center compared unfavorably with those reported from high-volume EUS centers. The results of this study suggest that preoperative staging by EUS should be performed by experienced and dedicated EUS endoscopists to optimize staging of esophageal cancer.

Aged↗
PubMed2006

Some prognostic models for traumatic brain injury were not valid.

OBJECTIVE: Various prognostic models have been developed to predict outcome after traumatic brain injury (TBI). We aimed to determine the validity of six models that used baseline clinical and computed tomographic characteristics to predict mortality or unfavorable outcome at 6 months or later after severe or moderate TBI. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The validity was studied in two selected series of TBI patients enrolled in clinical trials (Tirilazad trials; n = 2,269; International Selfotel Trial; n = 409) and in two unselected series of patients consecutively admitted to participating centers (European Brain Injury Consortium [EBIC] survey; n = 796; Traumatic Coma Data Bank; n = 746). Validity was indicated by discriminative ability (AUC) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test). RESULTS: The models varied in number of predictors (four to seven) and in development technique (two prediction trees and four logistic regression models). Discriminative ability varied widely (AUC: .61-.89), but calibration was poor for most models. Better discrimination was observed for logistic regression models compared with trees, and for models including more predictors. Further, discrimination was better when tested on unselected series that contained more heterogeneous populations. CONCLUSION: Our findings emphasize the need for external validation of prognostic models. The satisfactory discrimination indicates that logistic regression models, developed on large samples, can be used for classifying TBI patients according to prognostic risk.

Area Under Curve↗