Relationships between cohort and period demographic indicators: the translation problem revisited.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to G Calot.
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The analysis of recent fertility trends in France lead to hold as plausible that women born after 1950 will not reach replacement level. On the other hand, the period total fertility rate, which has not fallen as low as those observed in some neighbouring countries, might well continue to decline and thus disturb the alimentation of age-pyramid, despite its slower decrease in the course of 1976. Considering present fertility situation in France, an action of the State appears to be desirable. The factors which condition fertility fall largely out of the range of well-established knowledge. Though, it seems that they are deeply rooted in collective consciousness and that the possibilities they leave to voluntary action on fertility trends is relatively modest. Moreover, to be efficient, the means used must be important. The lines of possible action seem, in our view, to relate to two main fields: research of a better conciliation of professional activity and motherhood, increase of family benefits for second but specially for third and following children.
A way to try and assess the significance of such or such level in long term fertility is to work out population projections based on a variety of assumptions and to compare their different implications. The age pyramids of France until 2100 that derive from four contrasted evolutions of fertility are studied in the present article: completed fertility in birth cohorts ranging from 1.4 to 2.6 children per woman. While some demographic parameters are not much sensitive to the assumption made for the fertility level (e.g. percent of economically active people in total population), others are closely related to fertility (such as total number of inhabitants, percent of younger people or of older people in total population, annual rate of entry into economically active population). In France, where population density is much lower than in most neighbouring countries, a fertility level that would lay at -- or a little higher than -- replacement (i.e. 2.1 children per woman) can be considered as a desirable target.
The sharp decline in the number of births these last ten years is a general phenomenon in Western industrialised countries. As far as methodology is concerned, a clear distinction must be made between two concepts measuring fertility: completed fertility of successive generations, total fertility rate of successive years. The evolution of these two indicators of procreative behaviour is amazingly comparablefrom country to country, in spite of their various difference in termes of economic situation, of legislation (family allowances, contraception, abortion, divorce), predominant religion, etc...
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