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G J Gunn

Publications and source records attributed to G J Gunn.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2007

Modelling the epidemiology and transmission of Verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli serogroups O26 and O103 in two different calf cohorts.

Mathematical models are constructed to investigate the population dynamics of Verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) serogroups O26 and O103 in two different calf cohorts. We compare the epidemiological characteristics of these two serogroups within the same calf cohort as well as the same serogroups between the two calf cohorts. The sources of infection are quantified for both calf cohort studies. VTEC serogroups O26 and O103 mainly differ in the rate at which calves acquire infection from sources other than infected calves, while infected calves typically remain infectious for less than 1 week regardless of the serogroups. Fewer than 20% of VTEC-positive samples are the result of calf-to-calf transmission. PFGE typing data are available for VTEC-positive samples to further subdivide the serogroup data in one of the two calf cohort studies. For serogroup O26 but not O103, there is evidence for unequal environmental exposure to infection with different PFGE types.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Sensitivity of an immunomagnetic-separation-based test for detecting Escherichia coli O26 in bovine feces.

The sensitivity of a test for cattle shedding Escherichia coli serogroup O26 was estimated using several fecal pats artificially inoculated at a range of concentrations with different E. coli O26 strains. The test involves the enrichment of fecal microflora in buffered peptone water, the selective concentration of E. coli O26 using antibody-coated immunomagnetic-separation beads, the identification of E. coli colonies on Chromocult tryptone bile X-glucuronide agar, and confirmation of the serogroup with E. coli serogroup O26-specific antisera using slide agglutination. The effective dose of E. coli O26 for an 80% test sensitivity (ED(80)) was 1.0 x 10(4) CFU g(-1) feces (95% confidence interval, 4.7 x 10(3) to 2.4 x 10(4)). Differences in test sensitivity between different E. coli O26 strains and fecal pats were also observed. Individual estimates of ED(80) for each strain and fecal pat combination ranged from 4.2 x 10(2) to 4.8 x 10(5) CFU g(-1). These results suggest that the test is useful for identifying individuals shedding a large number of E. coli O26 organisms or, if an appropriate number of individuals in a herd are sampled, for identifying affected herds. The study also provides a benchmark estimate of sensitivity that can be used to compare alternative tests for E. coli O26 and a methodological approach that can be applied to tests for other pathogenic members of the Enterobacteriaceae and other sample types.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Molecular characterisation of bovine faecal Escherichia coli shows persistence of defined ampicillin resistant strains and the presence of class 1 integrons on an organic beef farm.

Antimicrobial use is heavily restricted on organic farms; however, few studies have been conducted to investigate the impact this has on the epidemiology of resistance in pathogenic and commensal bacteria. We investigated the persistence of antimicrobial resistant Escherichia coli within an organic beef herd over a period of 28 months. Faecal samples collected monthly from three calf cohorts and annually from adult cattle and environmental samples, were screened for the presence of ampicillin, apramycin and nalidixic acid resistant E. coli. The prevalence of ampicillin resistance ranged from 27.3 to 40.7% in the annual herd and environmental samplings (n=22-55) and was greater in the calf cohorts, with a peak cohort prevalence of >47% in all 3 years (n=16-18). Apramycin and nalidixic acid resistant E. coli were rare. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) identified 10 main genotype groups within the herd, with evidence of strain transmission between different livestock groups, animal species and years. Multiple resistance was found in >44% of isolates tested, with ampicillin, neomycin, sulphamethoxazole and tetracycline carriage the commonest phenotype identified. PCR detected the presence of class 1 integrons in <5% of resistant isolates, 6/7 of which were of cattle origin. These data demonstrate that ampicillin resistant E. coli was common on the farm despite restricted antimicrobial use, although strain diversity was low. Persistence of defined genotype groups was observed between years, together with the transmission of resistant strains between different animal species on the farm.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2006

Heterogeneous shedding of Escherichia coli O157 in cattle and its implications for control.

Identification of the relative importance of within- and between-host variability in infectiousness and the impact of these heterogeneities on the transmission dynamics of infectious agents can enable efficient targeting of control measures. Cattle, a major reservoir host for the zoonotic pathogen Escherichia coli O157, are known to exhibit a high degree of heterogeneity in bacterial shedding densities. By relating bacterial count to infectiousness and fitting dynamic epidemiological models to prevalence data from a cross-sectional survey of cattle farms in Scotland, we identify a robust pattern: approximately 80% of the transmission arises from the 20% most infectious individuals. We examine potential control options under a range of assumptions about within- and between-host variability in infection dynamics. Our results show that the within-herd basic reproduction ratio, R(0), could be reduced to <1 with targeted measures aimed at preventing infection in the 5% of individuals with the highest overall infectiousness. Alternatively, interventions such as vaccination or the use of probiotics that aim to reduce bacterial carriage could produce dramatic reductions in R(0) by preventing carriage at concentrations corresponding to the top few percent of the observed range of counts. We conclude that a greater understanding of the cause of the heterogeneity in bacterial carriage could lead to highly efficient control measures to reduce the prevalence of E. coli O157.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Super-shedding cattle and the transmission dynamics of Escherichia coli O157.

The prevalence of Escherichia coli O157 displays striking variability across the Scottish cattle population. On 78% of farms, in a cross-sectional survey of 952, no shedding of E. coli O157 was detected, but on a small proportion, approximately 2%, very high prevalences of infection were found (with 90-100% of pats sampled being positive). We ask whether this variation arises from the inherent stochasticity in transmission dynamics or whether it is a signature of underlying heterogeneities in the cattle population. A novel approach is taken whereby the cross-sectional data are viewed as providing independent snapshots of a dynamic process. Using maximum-likelihood methods to fit time-dependent epidemiological models to the data we obtain estimates for the rates of immigration and transmission of E. coli O157 infection - parameters which have not been previously quantified in the literature. A comparison of alternative model fits reveals that the variation in the prevalence data is best explained when a proportion of the cattle are assumed to transmit infection at much higher levels than the rest - the so-called super-shedders. Analysis of a second dataset, comprising samples taken from 32 farms at monthly intervals over a period of 1 year, additionally yields an estimate for the rate of recovery from infection. The pattern of prevalence displayed in the second dataset also strongly supports the super-shedder hypothesis.

Animal Husbandry↗
PubMed2006

Prevalence and virulence factors of Escherichia coli serogroups O26, O103, O111, and O145 shed by cattle in Scotland.

A national survey was conducted to determine the prevalence of Escherichia coli O26, O103, O111, and O145 in feces of Scottish cattle. In total, 6,086 fecal pats from 338 farms were tested. The weighted mean percentages of farms on which shedding was detected were 23% for E. coli O26, 22% for E. coli O103, and 10% for E. coli O145. The weighted mean prevalences in fecal pats were 4.6% for E. coli O26, 2.7% for E. coli O103, and 0.7% for E. coli O145. No E. coli O111 was detected. Farms with cattle shedding E. coli serogroup O26, O103, or O145 were widely dispersed across Scotland and were identified most often in summer and autumn. However, on individual farms, fecal shedding of E. coli O26, O103, or O145 was frequently undetectable or the numbers of pats testing positive were small. For serogroup O26 or O103 there was clustering of positive pats within management groups, and the presence of an animal shedding one of these serogroups was a positive predictor for shedding by others, suggesting local transmission of infection. Carriage of vtx was rare in E. coli O103 and O145 isolates, but 49.0% of E. coli O26 isolates possessed vtx, invariably vtx1 alone or vtx1 and vtx2 together. The carriage of eae and ehxA genes was highly associated in all three serogroups. Among E. coli serogroup O26 isolates, 28.9% carried vtx, eae, and ehxA-a profile consistent with E. coli O26 strains known to cause human disease.

Animal Husbandry↗
PubMed2005

Assessing economic and social pressure for the control of bovine viral diarrhoea virus.

The objective of this paper is to present a preliminary assessment of variation in the economic impact of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) at dairy farm level between a sample of nations within the EU and hence assess differences in pressure to respond to this disease that may be impeding progress in control and hence restricting collective benefits from healthier livestock. We used a questionnaire to obtain national average values of key epidemiological and economic parameters for a typical dairy farm from BVDV experts in the countries concerned. These parameters were converted into assessments of economic impact using a computer simulation model. Uncontrolled output losses for a BVDV-naïve herd with virus introduced in year 1 of a 10-year epidemic represented 22, 7, 8, 5, 8 and 20% of the BVDV-free annuity for the UK, Northern Portugal, Holland, Norway, Italy and Germany, respectively. Differences between countries will be widened by differences in the risk of acquiring BVDV. These will be much reduced in countries, such as Norway that have a national BVDV eradication programme. Farmers in such countries can therefore justify spending much less on maintaining BVDV-free status than BVDV-free farms in other countries. This result illustrates the paradox that in countries where BVDV prevalence is high, farmers have least to gain from unilateral BVDV eradication because of the high cost of maintaining freedom from the disease. We discuss this issue in the light of increasing recognition at international level of the importance of BVDV control.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Optimal risk management versus willingness to pay for BVDV control options.

Previous work has shown that the least-cost BVD-control option for cow-calf herds in Scotland was not necessarily the risk-minimising option. Thus, assessing BVDV prevention measures must account for risk reduction as well as decision-makers' attitude towards risks. We therefore describe a method to do this using a hypothetical example. Data for this analysis were generated using a simulation model of BVDV transmission in a typical Scottish cow-calf herd over a 10-year period. Herd infection/re-infection was adjusted to reflect the expected risk of infection/re-infection and the use of either biosecurity or vaccination strategies at various levels of effectiveness. The level of risk-free financial return that maximises farmers' utility of wealth was significantly affected by the assumed effectiveness of the control strategy. More importantly, it was observed that utility maximisation of wealth as a business objective is not an optimal solution in terms of animal welfare when dealing with a BVDV outbreak.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2005

A model of the relationship between the epidemiology of Johne's disease and the environment in suckler-beef herds.

A non-predictive, dynamic and stochastic herd-level simulation model of an outbreak of Johne's in a suckler-beef herd is reported. Importantly, the model incorporates, with a simple method, the environment as the primary source of infection, reflecting the consensual understanding of the disease. The model also takes into account the density of the infectious agent in the environment. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the model is highly and equally sensitive to certain parameters (probability of infection in the presence of one unit of bacterial density, infectious area and bacterial shedding rate). Mathematical reasons for this similarity in sensitivity are presented. Compared to many other diseases, data for Johne's are scarce. Therefore models of Johne's outbreaks including this one cannot be predictive or easily validated. The qualitative results: (a) demonstrate the modelled effect of inclusion of infection via the environment; (b) suggest management factors that could be tested by experimentation or observation. Estimates for the rate of transmission, arising from the model output, are similar to published empirical estimates. The results of future empirical research should aid scientific understanding of the disease, help validate this model and might bring economic benefits through improved management.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2005

Financial incentive to control paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) on dairy farms in the United Kingdom.

This paper estimates the financial incentive to control paratuberculosis on dairy farms by establishing the level of expenditure that would minimise the total cost of the disease (output losses plus control expenditure). Given the late onset of the clinical signs and the lack of treatments, control was focused on minimising the financial impact of paratuberculosis by adjusting the dairy cow replacement policy. The optimum replacement policies for disease-free herds and infected herds were compared by using dynamic programming. At the standard settings, the disease justified adjusting the culling policy; under constant bioeconomic assumptions, it reduced the expected annuity from milk production under the optimal replacement policy by about 10 per cent (27 pounds sterling per cow annually), a considerably lower figure than for other major endemic diseases that affect dairy cows in the uk. The effect was even less at lower milk prices, suggesting that there is at present little incentive for dairy farmers to put more resources into controlling the disease. However, the incentive could be increased if more information were available about how best to manage the disease under specific farm circumstances. Any effect that paratuberculosis may have on the future demand for milk and hence on milk prices would also be an important consideration.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Modelling the epidemiology of Verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli serogroups in young calves.

We investigate the epidemiology of 12 Verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) serogroups observed in a calf cohort on a Scottish beef farm. Fitting mathematical models to the observed time-course of infections reveals that there is significant calf-to-calf transmission of VTEC. Our models suggest that 40% of all detected infections are from calf-to-calf transmission and 60% from other sources. Variation in the rates at which infected animals recover from infection by different VTEC serogroups appears to be important. Two thirds of the observed VTEC serogroups are lost from infected calves within 1 day of infection, while the rest persist for more than 3 days. Our study has demonstrated that VTEC are transmissible between calves and are typically lost from infected animals in less than 1 week. We suggest that future field studies may wish to adopt a tighter sampling frame in order to detect all circulating VTEC serogroups in similar animal populations.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Spatial and temporal epidemiology of sporadic human cases of Escherichia coli O157 in Scotland, 1996-1999.

In Scotland, between 1995 and 2000 there were between 4 and 10 cases of illness per 100000 population per year identified as being caused by Escherichia coli O157, whereas in England and Wales there were between 1 and 2 cases per 100000 population per year. Within Scotland there is significant regional variation. A cluster of high rate areas was identified in the Northeast of Scotland and a cluster of low rate areas in central-west Scotland. Temporal trends follow a seasonal pattern whilst spatial effects appeared to be distant rather than local. The best-fit model identified a significant spatial trend with case rate increasing from West to East, and from South to North. No statistically significant spatial interaction term was found. In the models fitted, the cattle population density, the human population density, and the number of cattle per person were variously significant. The findings suggest that rural/urban exposures are important in sporadic infections.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Modelling and costing BVD outbreaks in beef herds.

Results from an epidemiological model of an outbreak of Bovine Viral Diarrhoea (BVD) within a Scottish beef suckler herd are presented. These results concurred with field observations and encouraged us to fulfill the objective of providing an estimate of losses due to BVD to assist decision makers. Using the output from the model, estimates were made of losses associated with the outbreak. Without taking into account any financial premiums associated with disease-free status, the estimate of pound 37 (58) mean loss per cow per annum suggests that health schemes and vaccination should be of immediate financial interest to farmers and veterinary advisors.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Distribution of Escherichia coli O157 in bovine fecal pats and its impact on estimates of the prevalence of fecal shedding.

The distribution of Escherichia coli O157 in bovine feces was examined by testing multiple samples from fecal pats and determining the density of E. coli O157 in immunomagnetic separation (IMS)-positive fecal samples. The density of E. coli O157 in bovine feces was highly variable, differing by as much as 76,800 CFU g(-1) between samples from the same fecal pat. The density in most positive samples was <100 CFU g(-1), the limit of reliable detection by IMS. Testing only one 1-g sample of feces per pat with IMS may result in a sensitivity of detection as low as 20 to 50%. It is therefore probable that most surveys have greatly underestimated the prevalence of E. coli O157 shedding in cattle and the proportion of farms with shedding cattle. The sensitivity of the detection of E. coli O157 in bovine feces can be as much as doubled by testing two 1-g samples per pat rather than one 1-g sample.

Animal Husbandry↗
PubMed2004

Shedding patterns of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli strains in a cohort of calves and their dams on a Scottish beef farm.

Rectal fecal samples were taken once a week from 49 calves on the same farm. In addition, the dams of the calves were sampled at the time of calf birth and at the end of the study. Strains of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) were isolated from these samples by using PCR and DNA probe hybridization tests and were characterized with respect to serotype, verocytotoxin gene (vtx) type, and the presence of the intimin (eae) and hemolysin (ehxA) genes. A total of 170 VTEC strains were isolated during 21 weeks from 130 (20%) of 664 samples from calves and from 40 (47%) of 86 samples from their dams. The characteristics of the calf strains differed from those strains isolated from the dams with respect to verocytotoxin 2 and the presence of the eae gene. In addition, no calf shed the same VTEC serogroup (excluding O?) as its dam at birth or at the end of the study. The most frequently detected serogroups in calves were serogroup O26 and provisional serogroup E40874 (VTEC O26 was found in 25 calves), whereas in dams serogroup O91 and provisional serogroup E54071 were the most common serogroups. VTEC O26 shedding appeared to be associated with very young calves and declined as the calves aged, whereas VTEC O2 shedding was associated with housing of the animals. VTEC O26 strains from calves were characterized by the presence of the vtx1, eae, and ehxA genes, whereas vtx2 was associated with VTEC O2 and provisional serogroup E40874. The high prevalence of VTEC O26 and of VTEC strains harboring the eae gene in this calf cohort is notable because of the association of the O26 serogroup and the presence of the eae gene with human disease. No association between calf diarrhea and any of the VTEC serogroups was identified.

Animal Husbandry↗
PubMed2004

Temporal shedding patterns and virulence factors of Escherichia coli serogroups O26, O103, O111, O145, and O157 in a cohort of beef calves and their dams.

This study investigated the shedding of Escherichia coli O26, O103, O111, O145, and O157 in a cohort of beef calves from birth over a 5-month period and assessed the relationship between shedding in calves and shedding in their dams, the relationship between shedding and scouring in calves, and the effect of housing on shedding in calves. Fecal samples were tested by immunomagnetic separation and by PCR and DNA hybridization assays. E. coli O26 was shed by 94% of calves. Over 90% of E. coli O26 isolates carried the vtx(1), eae, and ehl genes, 6.5% carried vtx(1) and vtx(2), and one isolate carried vtx(2) only. Serogroup O26 isolates comprised seven pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) patterns but were dominated by one pattern which represented 85.7% of isolates. E. coli O103 was shed by 51% of calves. Forty-eight percent of E. coli O103 isolates carried eae and ehl, 2% carried vtx(2), and none carried vtx(1). Serogroup O103 isolates comprised 10 PFGE patterns and were dominated by two patterns representing 62.5% of isolates. Shedding of E. coli O145 and O157 was rare. All serogroup O145 isolates carried eae, but none carried vtx(1) or vtx(2). All but one serogroup O157 isolate carried vtx(2), eae, and ehl. E. coli O111 was not detected. In most calves, the temporal pattern of E. coli O26 and O103 shedding was random. E. coli O26 was detected in three times as many samples as E. coli O103, and the rate at which calves began shedding E. coli O26 for the first time was five times greater than that for E. coli O103. For E. coli O26, O103, and O157, there was no association between shedding by calves and shedding by dams within 1 week of birth. For E. coli O26 and O103, there was no association between shedding and scouring, and there was no significant change in shedding following housing.

Animal Husbandry↗