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G J Van De Giessen

Publications and source records attributed to G J Van De Giessen.

10 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1987

[The reliability of the expectation (not) to have a child within three years].

The author examines the reliability of fertility expectations in the Netherlands over a three-year period starting in 1982. The data are from the 1982 and 1985 Netherlands Fertility Surveys. "On the individual level the expectations of 86% of all women turned out to be consistent with the demographic behaviour in the following three years. Of the women who had expected to have a child 63% had had one. Of the women who had not expected to have a child 92% indeed did not.... On the aggregate level the forecast was reasonably accurate: 21% of all women had expected to have a child whereas 20% had had one. Obviously the forecast error is larger for some categories of women than for others: the most deviant are the cohabiting women who show a rather large overestimation. But generally speaking the results of this analysis are promising for the use of short-term birth expectations in population forecasts." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Birth Rate↗
PubMed1987

[The stability of long-term birth expectations, 1982-1985].

Changes in expected number of births in the Netherlands are examined using data from the 1982 Netherlands Fertility Survey and a follow-up survey conducted in 1985. "On the 'yes', 'no', 'don't know' level, the answers of four out of every five respondents were identical in 1982 and 1985. On the level of an exact number of additional children this was three out of five. The expectation not to have any (more) children turned out to be stable for 87% of the respondents; the expectation to have one or more (additional) children for 84%. On an aggregate level there were minimal changes in the average expected number of additional children." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Aspirations, Psychological↗
PubMed1986

[Marriage intentions...and how they turned out].

The results of a follow-up survey conducted in 1985 concerning marriage intentions in the Netherlands are presented. The survey included 83 percent of those who participated in the Netherlands Fertility Survey of 1982. The results indicate that more women actually married during the three years following 1982 than expected to marry. This increase was largely due to marriage among women who had indicated an intention to marry without specifying when. The author concludes that "there will be a decline in the percentage of women who ever get married, but the decline will be less pronounced than was estimated from the 1982 data alone. The question is not only how many people will ever get married, but also at what age they will eventually do so." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Age Factors↗
PubMed1984

[The reliability of birth expectations in the Netherlands].

This study is concerned with the reliability of birth expectations in the Netherlands. The data are from four nationwide surveys: the National Survey on Fertility of 1969, the Netherlands Survey on Fertility and Parenthood Motivation of 1975, and the Netherlands Fertility Surveys of 1977 and 1982. These data permit the reliability of birth expectations data to be evaluated at the aggregate level only. Variations in the reliability of the data among the four surveys, and in the reliability of short- and long-term expectations, are analyzed. The results suggest that "asking for birth expectations in surveys in the Netherlands makes sense in so far that birth expectations can be used in...hypotheses for population forecasts." The precise ways of doing this are currently being studied at the Central Bureau of Statistics. (summary in ENG)

Attitude↗
PubMed1982

[The reliability of birth expectations].

This is the second part of a two-part article in which studies on the reliability of birth expectations in developed countries are reviewed. In this part, articles on reliability at the aggregate level are considered. "The overall conclusion can be that on average women in fertility-research overestimate their life-time births. For just married women this overestimation in the aggregate can be as high as 35 percent." (summary in ENG)

Birth Rate↗