Economic effects of immigrants on native and foreign-born workers: complementarity, substitutability, and other channels of influence.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to G L Hunt.
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"Equilibrium and disequilibrium approaches to migration modelling are elucidated and distinguishing features are identified. Relevant econometric evidence bearing on these distinctions is reviewed. A summary of current knowledge and priorities for future research is presented." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND GER)
In this study, the rate of growth of state and local populations in the United States is related to the growth rate of national employment, and to demographic and economic features of the regions concerned, in order to make more realistic long-term population projections. Both natural increase and migration are taken into account in the model developed. "The model is estimated for two regions, the El Paso, TX, standard metropolitan statistical area (SMSA) and the State of New Mexico. Several statistical problems arise because of the limited number of available time-series observations. Fully dynamic historical simulations track the population quite closely, in one case never differing from the actual value by more than 1.17% and in the other never differing by more than 1.36%."
"This paper demonstrates that jobs and wages are considerably more important than location-specific amenities in explaining net metropolitan migration of employed persons [in the United States]. These results, which are derived mainly from a unique set of annual migration data, differ considerably from the earlier findings of P. E. Graves...that show amenities to be powerful contributors to the analysis of net metropolitan migration. Several hypotheses are offered and tested to explain the appreciable difference between Grave's results and those of the present study, but the importance of economic factors as opposed to amenities persists."
"This paper uses a unique set of [U.S.] data to estimate the magnitude of the linkages between employment changes and net employment migration. A simple simultaneous system is specified and estimated for 17 consecutive years. In an average year two extra jobs attract about one additional net migrant, and one additional net migrant has a direct effect on area employment of almost 1.4 jobs." The data are from the One-Percent Social Security Continuous Work History Sample and are for the years 1958 to 1975. The changes in this relationship over time as the economic situation varies are analyzed.
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"Interregional demographic identities and other restrictions are explicitly taken into account in a simple time-series model of interregional migration. This goal is accomplished through the imposition of adding-up constraints on the estimated coefficients of a multi-equation linear system and by testing for homogeneity and symmetry. The pitfalls of utilizing the described procedures for migration analysis and forecasting are discussed. Full implementation of the technique is shown to require far more time-series observations on interregional migration than are commonly available."
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