Decreasing incidence of stroke during valvular surgery.
BACKGROUND: The predictors and causes of stroke after valvular surgery are incompletely defined. We examined the incidence, predictors, and mechanisms of stroke during valvular procedures over a 15-year time period. METHODS AND RESULTS: We retrospectively reviewed prospectively gathered data on 5954 consecutive patients undergoing valvular procedures at our institution from 1982 to 1996. Stroke was defined as persistent central nervous system deficit, usually with confirmatory CT imaging. Patients were divided into 3 groups according to date of operation: group 1, 1982 to 1986 (n = 1819); group 2, 1987 to 1991 (n = 2022); and group 3, 1992 to 1996 (n = 2113). Chart review was undertaken of all patients who developed stroke (n = 189). Stroke occurred in 3.8% of group 1 patients, 3.3% of group 2, and 2.6% of group 3 (P = 0.120). The decreasing incidence of stroke over time was confirmed by multivariable logistic regression analysis, in which earlier date of operation was an independent risk factor for stroke (P < 0.001). Predictors of stroke identified by multivariable logistic regression were (listed in decreasing order): (1) endocarditis (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.8 to 5.0); (2) age > 74 years (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.5 to 3.7); (3) earlier time period of operation (1982 to 1986: OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.5 to 3.2; 1987 to 1991: OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.0 to 2.2); (4) urgent timing (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.4 to 2.8); (5) concomitant coronary bypass (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.4 to 2.8); and (6) reoperation (OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.4). In more recent years of operation, we found an increasing prevalence of age > 74 years (7.4% in group 1, 9.5% in group 2, and 15.3% in group 3; P < 0.001), urgent timing (11%, 26%, and 34%, P < 0.001), and concomitant coronary bypass surgery (25%, 27%, and 33%; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of stroke during valvular surgery has decreased with time, despite an increased prevalence of risk factors. Predictors of stroke suggest 3 major causes (multivariable predictors in parentheses): atherosclerotic emboli (elderly age, concomitant coronary bypass), shock (urgent timing, reoperation), and septic emboli (endocarditis).