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H Blackburn

Publications and source records attributed to H Blackburn.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2003

Twenty-five-year coronary mortality trends in the seven countries study using the accelerated failure time model.

The 'accelerated failure time model' (AFT) was tested in the 25-year experience of the Seven Countries Study, to describe the shape of hazard for coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality during long-term follow-up. Sixteen cohorts of men aged 40-59 at entry were enrolled in eight countries (USA, Finland, The Netherlands, Italy, Croatia, Serbia, Greece and Japan) for a total of 12,763 subjects. Risk factors were measured and CHD mortality data collected during 25 years. The AFT incorporating the Weibull survival distribution was applied to the pooled cohorts of each country, with CHD mortality as endpoint. Cumulative hazards and the annual hazard for CHD mortality were estimated during 25 years and compared among countries. The annual hazard for CHD in 25 years tended to reduce relatively or flatten out in the northern American and northern European countries, exponentially increased in Serbia and Japan, and increased moderately in the other countries of southern Europe. Positive correlations were found between the shape of the hazard curve and population mean risk factor changes (serum cholesterol and systolic blood pressure) observed during the first 10 years follow-up. The Japanese group was an outlier. The countries with the largest relative decline in the annual hazard function were the same where, during the same historical period, the largest decreases in official death rates from CHD were recorded and vice versa. The curve shape in the annual hazard for CHD mortality in different countries seems related to changes in mean levels of serum cholesterol and systolic blood pressure.

Adult↗
PubMed2002

Prevalence and prognosis of electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy, ST segment depression and negative T-wave; the Copenhagen City Heart Study.

AIMS: To evaluate the prevalence and the independent prognosis of electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy by voltage only, ST depression and negative T wave, isolated negative T wave and left ventricular hypertrophy plus ST depression and negative T wave for cardiac morbidity and mortality, without known ischaemic heart disease at baseline. METHODS AND RESULTS: Follow-up data from the Copenhagen City Heart Study were used. Subjects were 5243 men and 6391 women, age range 25-74 years. End-points were (1) myocardial infarction, (2) ischaemic heart disease and (3) cardiovascular disease mortality. Relative risk was age- and sex-adjusted, and multivariately adjusted for known cardiovascular risk factors. During 7 years follow-up, left ventricular hypertrophy plus ST depression and negative T wave had an age-adjusted relative risk of 3.78 (95% confidence interval 2.29-6.25) for myocardial infarction, 4.27 (2.95-6.16) for ischaemic heart disease and 3.75 (2.41-5.85) for cardiovascular disease. A negative T wave, ST depression and negative T wave changes, and left ventricular hypertrophy with negative T wave also carry independent prognostic information for myocardial infarction, ischaemic heart disease and cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: Electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy with ST depression and negative T wave changes are the electrocardiographic abnormalities with the greatest prognostic information for future cardiac events. Electrocardiographic negative T waves, ST depression and negative T wave abnormalities and left ventricular hypertrophy with negative T waves, also have prognostic information.

Adult↗
PubMed2001

Trends in acute coronary heart disease mortality, morbidity, and medical care from 1985 through 1997: the Minnesota heart survey.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality continued to decline from 1985 to 1997. METHODS AND RESULTS: We tabulated CHD deaths (ICD-9 codes 410 through 414) in the Minneapolis/St Paul, Minnesota, area. For 1985, 1990, and 1995, trained nurses abstracted the hospital records of patients 30 to 74 years old with a discharge diagnosis of acute CHD (ICD-9 codes 410 or 411). Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) events were validated and followed for 3-year all-cause mortality. Between 1985 and 1997, age-adjusted CHD mortality rates in Minneapolis/St Paul fell 47% and 51% in men and women, respectively; the comparable declines in US whites were 34% and 29%. In-hospital mortality declined faster than out-of-hospital mortality. The rate of AMI (ICD-9 code 410) hospital discharges declined almost 20% between 1985 and 1995, whereas the discharge rate for unstable angina (ICD-9 code 411) increased substantially. The incidence of hospitalized definite AMI declined approximately 10%, whereas recurrence rates fell 20% to 30%. Three-year case fatality rates after hospitalized AMI decreased consistently by 31% and 41% in men and women, respectively. In-hospital administration of thrombolytic therapy, emergency angioplasty, ACE inhibitors, beta-blockers, heparin, and aspirin increased greatly. CONCLUSIONS: Declining out-of-hospital death rates, declining incidence and recurrence of AMI in the population, and marked improvements in the survival of AMI patients all contributed to the 1985 to 1997 decline of CHD mortality in the Minneapolis/St Paul metropolitan area. The effects of early and late medical care seem to have had the greatest contribution to rates during this time period.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed2001

Cardiovascular risk factors as determinants of 25-year all-cause mortality in the seven countries study.

This analysis aims at describing all-cause mortality and their determinants in 16 cohorts of middle-aged men of eight nations. A total of 12,763 men aged 40-59 years were enrolled in the late 1950s and early 1960s in 16 cohorts located in the USA, Finland, The Netherlands, Italy, Croatia, Serbia, Greece and Japan. The highest death rates were found in Slavonia-Croatia, due to high rates of infectious diseases and violence (death rate of 610 per 1000), and in East Finland due to high rates from coronary heart disease (death rate of 597 per 1000). The lowest death rates were found in a highly educated group in Belgrade, Serbia (death rate 295 per 1000) and in Crete, Greece (death rate 314 per 1000). The ecological analysis showed no significant relationship between mean risk factor levels and all-cause death rates except for the direct association with systolic blood pressure during the first 15 years follow-up. Individual multivariate analysis on eight national pools showed that age, systolic blood pressure, and smoking habits are direct, significant, and universal long-term predictors of all-cause mortality. Serum cholesterol, physical activity and body mass index were so only in some areas. Multivariate coefficients were similar across nations. Pooled hazards ratios were 1.55 for a difference of 5 years of age (CI: 1.51-1.59); 1.23 for 10 cigarettes smoked per day (CI: 1.20-1.26); 0.91 for one unit (based on three grades) of physical activity score (CI: 0.87-0.95); 1.04 for 1 mmol/l of serum cholesterol (CI: 1.02-1.07); and 0.93 for three units of body mass index (CI: 0.91-0.96). In conclusion some cardiovascular risk factors predict long-term risk of all-cause mortality in different cultures.

Adult↗
PubMed2000

Secular trends in dietary macronutrient intake in Minneapolis-St, Paul, Minnesota, 1980-1992.

Trends in dietary macronutrient intake were evaluated in population-based surveys conducted in adults aged 25-74 years in 1980-1982, 1985-1987, and 1990-1992 in the seven-county Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area. A 24-hour dietary recall (n = 6,499) was completed by a random 50% sample. The authors obtained energy intake for each macronutrient (protein, carbohydrate, fat, saturated fat, monounsaturated fat, polyunsaturated fat, and alcohol). Tine trends for percentage of total energy were analyzed using a generalized linear mixed model. While energy intake remained stable over time, macronutrient composition changed substantially. In 1980-1982, the caloric distribution for men comprised 15.8% protein, 39.4% fat, 40.9% carbohydrate, and 3.9% alcohol; similar findings were observed in women (15.7% protein, 38.9% fat, 43% carbohydrate, and 2.4% alcohol). From 1980 to 1992, total fat intake decreased 4.7% in men and 4.9% in women (p < 0.001). The decline was greatest for monounsaturated fat, although saturated and polyunsaturated fat intake also fell. During this same period, carbohydrate intake increased 5.7% and 5.8% in men and women, respectively (p < 0.001). Alcohol intake decreased in men and women (p < 0.01), while protein intake remained stable. In summary, the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area diet shifted substantially during the 1980s toward more carbohydrate and lower fat and alcohol intake.

Adult↗
PubMed2000

Underweight and overweight in relation to mortality among men aged 40-59 and 50-69 years: the Seven Countries Study.

This study investigated the relation between body mass index (BMI) and the all-cause mortality rate among 7,985 European men. Starting around 1960, when all men were aged 40-59 years, mortality was followed for 15 years (1960-1975); starting around 1970, the survivors were followed for an additional 15 years (1970-1985). For the first and second follow-up periods, a BMI of 18.5-25 kg/m2 around 1960 and 1970, respectively, was considered the reference category. The authors found that the hazard ratios of mortality for a BMI of <18.5 kg/m2 was 2.1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.5, 2.8) for the first follow-up period and 1.7 (95% CI: 1.3, 2.2) for the second. A BMI of 25-30 kg/m2 was not related to increased mortality. Among never smokers, the hazard ratios for a BMI of >30 kg/m2 were 1.8 (95% CI: 1.2, 2.8) for the 1960-1975 follow-up period and 1.4 (95% CI: 1.0, 1.9) for the 1970-1985 follow-up period. A BMI of >30 kg/m2 was not related to increased mortality among current smokers. When mortality was followed for more than 15 years, the hazard ratio for a BMI of <18.5 kg/m2 declined and the hazard ratios for a BMI of >30 kg/m2 did not change. Underweight among those in all smoking categories and severe overweight in never smokers remained predictors of increased mortality when middle-aged men became older.

Adult↗
PubMed2000

Differences and trends in antioxidant dietary intake in smokers and non-smokers, 1980-1992: the Minnesota Heart Survey.

PURPOSE: Differences and secular trends in dietary antioxidant vitamin intake (vitamins E, C, and beta-carotene) in current non-smokers, light smokers, and heavy smokers were examined as part of the Minnesota Heart Survey. METHODS: Three cross-sectional surveys were conducted in adults ages 25-74 years in 1980-82 (N = 1682), 1985-87 (N = 2326), and 1990-92 (N = 2487). Dietary information was obtained from a 24-hour dietary recall. Smoking was assessed through self-report. Intakes were adjusted for age, energy intake, body mass index, education level, and exercise level (vitamins E, C and beta-carotene). RESULTS: Antioxidant vitamin intakes were significantly higher in non-smokers than in light (1-20 cig/day) and heavy smokers (>20 cig/day) when all three survey periods were combined. In men, mean vitamin E intake was 9.2 mg, 8.6 mg, and 7.8 mg for non-smokers, light smokers, and heavy smokers, respectively. Results were similar in men for beta-carotene (non-smokers 1408 microg, light smokers 1287 microg, and heavy smokers 1064 microg), and vitamin C (non-smokers 81 mg, light smokers 67 mg, and heavy smokers 56 mg). Women had results of similar magnitude and direction. From 1980-92, secular trends in men showed non-significant increases from 1980-82 to 1990-92 in beta-carotene (+6.1%), while decreases were observed in vitamins E (-1.1%) and C (-2.6%). In contrast, women had large decreases in all antioxidant vitamin intakes: vitamin E (-13%), vitamin C (-18.6%), and beta-carotene (-16.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Light and heavy smokers had a significantly lower overall mean dietary antioxidant vitamin intake than non-smokers. Over the decade, antioxidant dietary intake remained relatively stable in men and decreased in women in Minneapolis-St. Paul, despite improvements in access to antioxidant rich fruits and vegetables.

Adult↗
PubMed1999

PREDICT: A simple risk score for clinical severity and long-term prognosis after hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction or unstable angina: the Minnesota heart survey.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated short- and long-term mortality risks in 30- to 74-year-old patients hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction or unstable angina and developed a new score called PREDICT. METHODS AND RESULTS: PREDICT was based on information routinely collected in hospital. Predictors abstracted from hospital record items pertaining to the admission day, including shock, heart failure, ECG findings, cardiovascular disease history, kidney function, and age. Comorbidity was assessed from discharge diagnoses, and mortality was determined from death certificates. For 1985 and 1990 hospitalizations, the 6-year death rate in 6134 patients with 0 to 1 score points was 4%, increasing stepwise to 89% for >/=16 points. Score validity was established by only slightly attenuated mortality prediction in 3570 admissions in 1970 and 1980. When case severity was controlled for, 6-year risk declined 32% between 1970 and 1990. When PREDICT was held constant, 24% of those treated with thrombolysis died in 6 years compared with 31% of those not treated. CONCLUSIONS: The simple PREDICT risk score was a powerful prognosticator of 6-year mortality after hospitalization.

Adult↗
PubMed1999

Cigarette smoking and mortality risk: twenty-five-year follow-up of the Seven Countries Study.

BACKGROUND: Although most observations in the Seven Countries Study suggest that cigarette smoking is harmful for health, universality of this conclusion remains controversial. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Cohort-specific and pooled smoking habits at baseline (1957-1964) in 12 763 men aged 40 through 59 years living in Europe, the United States, and Japan in relation to 25-year mortality follow-up. Pooled hazard ratios for smokers vs never smokers were calculated by the Cox proportional hazards model, adjusting for baseline country of residence, age, body mass index, serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and clinical cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Adjusted hazard ratios for all-causes death in smokers compared with never smokers were 1.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.2-1.4) for smokers of less than 10 cigarettes per day and 1.8 (95% confidence interval, 1.7-1.9) for smokers of 10 cigarettes per day or more. Hazard ratios were elevated for death due to coronary heart disease, all stroke, other arterial disease, lung cancer, other cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and other disease in smokers compared with never smokers. Within country, a few instances in which never smokers had a higher cause-specific death rate than smokers of 10 cigarettes per day or more were attributable to random variation associated with low prevalence of never smokers and multiple comparisons. CONCLUSIONS: These findings confirm the association of cigarette smoking with elevated risk of mortality from all causes, several cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Risk associated with cigarette smoking is independent of culture.

Accidents↗
PubMed1999

Dietary fiber and plant foods in relation to colorectal cancer mortality: the Seven Countries Study.

Many observational studies have found that higher consumption of vegetables, and to a lesser extent of fruits, was associated with lower risk of colorectal cancer. In particular, fiber or foods high in fiber have received attention in the potential prevention of colorectal cancer. We performed an ecological analysis with data of the Seven Countries Study, to investigate whether intake of fiber and plant foods contributes to cross-cultural differences in 25-year colorectal-cancer mortality in men. In the Seven Countries Study, around 1960 12,763 men aged 40 to 59 were enrolled in 16 cohorts in 7 countries. Baseline dietary information was gathered in small random samples per cohort, and nutrient intakes were based on chemical analyses of the average diets per cohort. Crude and energy-adjusted mortality-rate ratios were calculated for a change of 10% of the mean intake of fiber and plant foods, i.e., total plant foods, fruits, vegetables, potatoes, grains, and related sub-groups. Fiber intake was inversely associated with colorectal-cancer mortality with an energy-adjusted rate ratio of 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.80-0.97). An increase of 10 gram of daily intake of fiber was associated with a 33% lower 25-year colorectal-cancer mortality risk. Intakes of vitamin B6 [0.84 (0.71-0.99)] and alpha-tocopherol [0.94 (0.89-0.99)] were also inversely associated with risk. Consumption of plant foods and related sub-groups was not related to colorectal cancer. It appears that fiber intake best indicates the part of plant food consumption, including whole grains, that is relevant for lowering colorectal cancer risk.

Adult↗
PubMed1999

Parental history of premature coronary heart disease mortality and signs of ischemia on the resting electrocardiogram.

OBJECTIVES: Here we explore the association between a family history of premature coronary heart disease (CHD) death and ischemic electrocardiogram (ECG) findings in the offspring. BACKGROUND: In the general population, signs of ischemia are found on the resting ECG in about 10% of middle-aged men and women. Their independent predictive value for CHD morbidity and mortality has been shown in several studies. METHODS: Our results are based on cross-sectional data from three large epidemiological studies performed in Belgium during the past two decades: the Belgian Heart Disease Prevention Project (n = 8,145), the Belgian Interuniversity Research on Nutrition and Health survey (n = 7,625) and the MONICA project (n = 3,193). A parental history of fatal CHD was considered premature if the father died from CHD before age 60 or the mother before age 70. Ischemic ECG findings were defined according to Minnesota Code criteria I(1-3), IV(1-3), V(1-3) or VII1. RESULTS: Subjects with a parental history of premature CHD death were found to have experienced significantly more frequently symptomatic CHD. After exclusion of symptomatic individuals, no major differences in lifestyle-related risk factors were found between the groups with and without a parental history of premature fatal CHD. After multivariate adjustment for age, smoking, body mass index and sex, the odds ratios (and 95% confidence interval [CI]) for ECG ischemia associated with a positive parental history of premature death were 1.42 (1.10-1.82), 1.47 (1.16-1.88) and 1.37 (0.78-2.41) in the three studies. Additional adjustment for systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and, if available, lifestyle-related factors did not alter the magnitude of the odds ratios. Overall, in men aged 45 to 64 years, ECG ischemia was significantly more frequent (36% excess) in those with positive parental history. CONCLUSIONS: Subjects in whom one or both parents died prematurely from cardiac-related diseases have signs of ischemia more frequently on their electrocardiogram, and this is independent of other risk factors.

Adult↗
PubMed1999

Food intake patterns and 25-year mortality from coronary heart disease: cross-cultural correlations in the Seven Countries Study. The Seven Countries Study Research Group.

In the Seven Countries Study, associations between the intake of food-groups and 25-year mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD, defined as sudden coronary death or fatal myocardial infarction) were investigated. Baseline surveys were carried out between 1958 and 1964. A number of individual characteristics were measured in 12,763 middle-aged men belonging to 16 cohorts in seven countries (USA, Finland, The Netherlands, Italy, former Yugoslavia, Greece and Japan). Dietary information was collected in sub-samples using the weighed record method. Vital status of all participants was verified at regular intervals during 25 years of follow-up and the underlying cause of death was adjudicated. Eighteen different food-groups and combinations were considered for comparison among cohorts. Large differences in food-group consumption were seen, with high consumption of dairy products in Northern Europe, meat in the USA, vegetables, legumes, fish, and wine in Southern Europe, and cereals, soy products, and fish in Japan. Population death rates from CHD showed large differences, ranging from 268 per 1000 in East Finland to 25 per 1000 in Crete, Greece. Animal food-groups were directly correlated, and vegetable food-groups (except potatoes) as well as fish and alcohol were inversely correlated with CHD mortality. Univariate analysis showed significant positive correlation coefficients for butter (R = 0.887), meat (R = 0.645), pastries (R = 0.752), and milk (R = 0.600) consumption, and significant negative correlation coefficients for legumes (R = -0.822), oils (R = -0.571), and alcohol (R = -0.609) consumption. Combined vegetable foods (excluding alcohol) were inversely correlated (R = -0.519), whereas combined animal foods (excluding fish) were directly correlated (R = 0.798) with CHD death rates. Multivariate stepwise analysis selected butter, lard + margarine and meat as significant predictors and produced an R2 of 0.922. These findings were confirmed by factor analysis. These cross-cultural analyses are consistent with the hypothesis that dietary patterns are important determinants of differences in population CHD death rates, and confirm the opposite effects on apparent risk of animal and vegetable foods.

Coronary Disease↗
PubMed1998

Prognostic value of ischemic electrocardiographic findings for cardiovascular mortality in men and women.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate the independent prognostic value of ischemic electrocardiographic (ECG) findings for cardiovascular mortality and to evaluate a possible sex-differential in this regard. BACKGROUND: In previous reports, ST segment and T wave changes on the resting ECG were described as independent risk factors for development of coronary heart disease. Although more prevalent in women, they are often given less clinical importance than in men. METHODS: Ten-year follow-up data from the Belgian Interuniversity Research on Nutrition and Health study were used. The results presented here are based on ECGs of the 4,797 men and 4,320 women, aged 25 to 74 years, who were free of angina pectoris at the start of follow-up, had no history of myocardial infarction (MI) and showed no Q wave evidence of an old MI on their ECG. RESULTS: At baseline, the age-standardized prevalence of an "ischemic ECG" (Minnesota codes I3, IV1-3, V1-3 or VII1) was 8.4% in men and 10.6% in women. Cardiovascular mortality rates in men and women with an ischemic ECG were respectively 7.7 and 2.6 per 1,000 person-years, compared with 2.3 and 1.0 in those with no such ECG findings. After correction for the potential confounding effects of established cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, the multivariately adjusted risk ratios were 2.45 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.70 to 3.53) for men and 2.16 (95% CI: 1.30 to 3.58) for women. Testing the interaction between an ischemic ECG and sex on CVD mortality revealed that the risk ratios were not significantly changed (p=0.95). The etiologic fraction of CVD deaths attributable to an ischemic ECG was estimated as 19.3% for men and 22.4% for women. Both men and women with major ischemic findings in their baseline electrocardiogram (Minnesota codes IV1,2, V1,2 or VII1) had a fourfold increased risk of CVD death. CONCLUSION: These results support the hypothesis that women with ischemic ECG findings are at the same increased risk for CVD mortality as men.

Adult↗
PubMed1998

Adherence to the European Code Against Cancer in relation to long-term cancer mortality: intercohort comparisons from the Seven Countries Study.

Within the Seven Countries Study, we investigated whether population differences in 25-year cancer mortality and mortality due to cancer of the lung, stomach, and colorectum could be explained by population differences in adherence to the European Code Against Cancer. Baseline surveys were carried out around 1960 on 12,763 middle-aged men constituting 16 cohorts in seven countries; small samples of the cohorts kept dietary records. In 1987, food equivalent composites representing the average food intake of each cohort at baseline were collected locally and analyzed in one central laboratory. The vital status of all participants was verified after 25 years of follow-up. Overall adherence to the first four recommendations of the European Code Against Cancer was inversely related to 25-year total cancer mortality but not to all-cause mortality. The association with cancer mortality was essentially due to the inverse association for adherence to the guideline on smoking only. Each decrease in the percentage of smokers of 3.4% (10% of range) was associated with a relative risk of 0.93 of dying from cancer. Adherence to the recommendation on consumption of vegetables, fruits, and fiber-rich cereals was inversely related to stomach cancer mortality, whereas adherence to the recommendation on body weight, physical activity, and intake of fat was associated with higher stomach cancer mortality.

Body Weight↗
PubMed1998

Prognostic value of ECG findings for total, cardiovascular disease, and coronary heart disease death in men and women.

OBJECTIVE: To study abnormalities in the resting ECG as independent predictors for all cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in a population based random sample of men and women, and to explore whether their prognostic value is different between sexes. DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: An age and sex stratified random sample was selected from the total Belgian population aged 25 to 74 years. Baseline data were gathered and resting ECGs were classified according to Minnesota code criteria. The sample was then followed for at least 10 years with respect to cause specific death. Results are based on observations from 5208 men and 4746 women free from prevalent CHD at the start of the follow up period. RESULTS: Although the prevalence of major abnormalities in general was comparable between sexes, women had more ischaemic findings, ST segment changes, and abnormal T waves on their baseline ECG, while men showed more arrhythmias, bundle branch blocks, and left ventricular hypertrophy. Fitting the multiplicative effect on subsequent mortality between all ECG classifications under study and sex indicated that the prognostic value of ECG changes was equal in women and men. Independently of other risk factors and other major ECG changes, almost all ECG classifications were significantly related to all cause, CVD, and CHD mortality. The most predictive ECG findings for CVD death were ST segment depression (risk ratio (RR) 4.71), major ECG findings (RR 3.26), left ventricular hypertrophy (RR 2.79), bundle branch blocks (RR 2.58), T wave flattening (RR 2.47), ischaemic ECG findings (RR 2.35), and arrhythmias (RR 2.15). The prognostic value of major ECG findings for CVD and CHD death was more powerful than well established cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Abnormalities in the baseline ECG are strongly associated with subsequent all cause, CVD, and CHD mortality. Their predictive value was similar for men and women.

Adult↗
PubMed1998

Relationship of some risk factors with typical and atypical manifestations of coronary heart disease.

BACKGROUND: This analysis explores whether 'typical' clinical manifestations of coronary heart disease (CHD) such as myocardial infarction and sudden death, relate to major cardiovascular risk factors in the same way as the 'atypical' manifestations, e.g. heart failure and chronic arrhythmias. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Sixteen cohorts of men aged 40-59 in seven countries were examined, risk factors measured (age, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol and smoking habits) and 25-year mortality data collected in a systematic way. Cohorts were located in the US (n = 1), Finland (n = 2), the Netherlands (n = 1), Italy (n = 3), former Yugoslavia (n = 5), Greece (n = 2) and Japan (n = 2), with a total of 12,763 individuals. Ecological analysis based on regression equations and correlation among cohorts, and individual analyses based on proportional hazard models in pools of cohorts were conducted with typical and atypical CHD deaths as dependent variables. RESULTS: The ecological analysis suggests a significant relationship of populational mean levels of serum cholesterol and of systolic blood pressure to age-adjusted death rates from typical CHD manifestations. The relationships for atypical CHD deaths were not statistically significant. In the ecological approach with multivariate analysis, none of the risk factors showed relevant associations with event rates, except serum cholesterol and typical CHD deaths. The ecological relationship of serum cholesterol to atypical CHD death rates was negative but not significant. On average, mean age at death was statistically higher among atypical CHD than typical CHD patients (70.2 vs. 65.8 years). In the individual multivariate analysis conducted on pools of countries, the relationship of risk factors with typical CHD deaths was direct and significant for age, systolic blood pressure, and smoking habits in Northern Europe and America and Southern Europe, but only for systolic blood pressure and smoking habits in Japan, whereas for atypical CHD, the predictive factors were age, systolic blood pressure and cigarette smoking in Northern Europe and America and Southern Europe, but only age in Japan. CONCLUSIONS: The usual relationship of blood pressure and smoking habits and the differential relationship of serum cholesterol with atypical CHD (negative or absent) versus typical CHD (direct and significant) could be explained by 'two different diseases' or by a mix of poorly classified conditions among the atypical cases.

Adult↗