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H E Clough

Publications and source records attributed to H E Clough.

8 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2005

Quantifying uncertainty associated with microbial count data: a Bayesian approach.

We consider the problem of estimating bacterial concentration in a substance, given microbial count data. A Bayesian approach is proposed which naturally allows the incorporation of both plate-count data and extra information from confirmatory tests such as genotyping by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The estimation methods yield posterior credible regions for bacterial concentration, in contrast to the previous methods, which generally only produce point estimates. The approach is illustrated with specific reference to the enumeration of the food-borne pathogen Escherichia coli O157 by spiral plating, although the methodology can be applied to any bacterium or counting method of interest. The results obtained provide guidance to the experimenter as to the number of confirmatory tests which should be performed, and also suggest that in the initial plate count one should err on the side of including rather than excluding colonies whose genotype seems unclear.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed2005

Prevalence and genetic diversity of Campylobacter spp. in environmental water samples from a 100-square-kilometer predominantly dairy farming area.

Water samples were taken systematically from a 100-km2 area of mainly dairy farmland in northwestern England and examined for Campylobacter spp. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PFGE-RFLP) and flaA strain typing of Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli isolates were done. Data on the water source and the adjacent environment were recorded and examined as explanatory variables. Campylobacter spp. were isolated from 40.5% (n = 119) of the water samples tested. C. jejuni was isolated from 14.3%, C. coli was isolated from 18.5%, and Campylobacter lari was isolated from 4.2% of the samples. Campylobacter hyointestinalis was not isolated from any water source. The difference in prevalence between water types (trough, running, and standing) was significant (P = 0.001). C. jejuni was the species most commonly isolated from trough-water and running-water sources, while C. coli was the most frequently isolated from standing water (P < 0.001). No association was found between the presence of Escherichia coli and that of Campylobacter spp. The final multivariable logistic regression model for Campylobacter spp. included the following variables: water source, soil type, aspect, and amount of cattle fecal material in the environment (fecal pat count). Strain typing demonstrated a diverse population of C. jejuni and the presence of a common C. coli flaA type that was widely distributed throughout the area. Most of the isolates within the common flaA type were discriminated by PFGE-RFLP. These findings suggest a possible role for environmental water in the epidemiology of Campylobacter spp. in a farming environment.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2004

Frequency and spatial distribution of environmental Campylobacter spp.

Humans are exposed to Campylobacter spp. in a range of sources via both food and environmental pathways. For this study, we explored the frequency and distribution of thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in a 10- by 10-km square rural area of Cheshire, United Kingdom. The area contains approximately 70, mainly dairy, farms and is used extensively for outdoor recreational activities. Campylobacter spp. were isolated from a range of environmental samples by use of a systematic sampling grid. Livestock (mainly cattle) and wildlife feces and environmental water and soil samples were cultured, and isolates were presumptively identified by standard techniques. These isolates were further characterized by PCR. Campylobacter jejuni was the most prevalent species in all animal samples, ranging from 11% in samples from nonavian wildlife to 36% in cattle feces, and was isolated from 15% of water samples. Campylobacter coli was commonly found in water (17%) and sheep (21%) samples, but rarely in other samples. Campylobacter lari was recovered from all sample types, with the exception of sheep feces, and was found in moderate numbers in birds (7%) and water (5%). Campylobacter hyointestinalis was only recovered from cattle (7%) and birds (1%). The spatial distribution and determinants of C. jejuni in cattle feces were examined by the use of model-based spatial statistics. The distribution was consistent with very localized within-farm or within-field transmission and showed little evidence of any larger-scale spatial dependence. We concluded that there is a potentially high risk of human exposure to Campylobacter spp., particularly C. jejuni, in the environment of our study area. The prevalence and likely risk posed by C. jejuni-positive cattle feces in the environment diminished as the fecal material aged. After we took into account the age of the fecal material, the absence or presence of rain, and the presence of bird feces, there was evidence of significant variation in the prevalence of C. jejuni-positive cattle feces between grazing fields but no evidence of spatial clustering beyond this resolution. The spatial pattern of C. jejuni is therefore consistent with that for an organism that is ubiquitous in areas contaminated with cattle feces, with a short-scale variation in infection intensity that cannot be explained solely by variations in the age of the fecal material. The observed pattern is not consistent with large-scale transmission attributable to watercourses, wildlife territories, or other geographical features that transcend field and farm boundaries.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Bayesian methods for estimating pathogen prevalence within groups of animals from faecal-pat sampling.

Pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Campylobacter spp. have been implicated in outbreaks of food poisoning in the UK and elsewhere. Domestic animals and wildlife are important reservoirs for both of these agents, and cross-contamination from faeces is believed to be responsible for many human outbreaks. Appropriate parameterisation of quantitative microbial-risk models requires representative data at all levels of the food chain. Our focus in this paper is on the early stages of the food chain-specifically, sampling issues which arise at the farm level. We estimated animal-pathogen prevalence from faecal-pat samples using a Bayesian method which reflected the uncertainties inherent in the animal-level prevalence estimates. (Note that prevalence here refers to the percentage of animals shedding the bacteria of interest). The method offers more flexibility than traditional, classical approaches: it allows the incorporation of prior belief, and permits the computation of a variety of distributional and numerical summaries, analogues of which often are not available through a classical framework. The Bayesian technique is illustrated with a number of examples reflecting the effects of a diversity of assumptions about the underlying processes. The technique appears to be both robust and flexible, and is useful when defecation rates in infected and uninfected groups are unequal, where population size is uncertain, and also where the microbiological-test sensitivity is imperfect. We also investigated the determination of the sample size necessary for determining animal-level prevalence from pat samples to within a pre-specified degree of accuracy.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2002

Carbamazepine versus phenytoin monotherapy for epilepsy.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, carbamazepine and phenytoin are commonly used antiepileptic drugs. This review summarizes evidence from randomized controlled trials in which these two drugs have been compared. OBJECTIVES: To review the best evidence comparing carbamazepine and phenytoin when used as monotherapy in subjects with partial onset seizures, or generalized onset tonic-clonic seizures with or without other generalized seizure types. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched: (a) the trial register of the Cochrane Epilepsy Group; (b) The Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Cochrane Library Issue 4, 2001); (c) MEDLINE 1966-2001. In addition we hand searched relevant journals and contacted the pharmaceutical industry and researchers in the field to seek any ongoing or unpublished studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials in children or adults with partial onset seizures or generalized onset tonic-clonic seizures. Trials must have included a comparison of carbamazepine monotherapy with phenytoin monotherapy. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: This was an individual patient data review. Outcomes were time to (a) withdrawal of allocated treatment, (b) 12 month remission, (c) six month remission, and (d) first seizure post randomization. Data were analysed using a stratified logrank analysis with results expressed as hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), where a HR>1 indicates an event is more likely on phenytoin. MAIN RESULTS: Individual patient data are available for 551 participants from three trials, representing 63% of the participants recruited into the nine trials that met our inclusion criteria. By convention, for the outcomes time to six and 12 month remission HR>1 indicates a clinical advantage for phenytoin, whilst for time to withdrawal and first seizure HR>1 indicates a clinical advantage for carbamazepine. Results (HR (95% CI)) were: (i) time to withdrawal of allocated treatment 0.97(0.74 to 1.28), (ii) time to 12 month remission 1.00(0.78 to 1.29), (iii) time to six month remission 1.10(0.87 to 1.39), (iv) time to first seizure 0.91(0.74 to 1.12). The results suggest no overall difference between carbamazepine and phenytoin for these outcomes. REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS: We have not found evidence that a significant difference exists between carbamazepine and phenytoin for the outcomes examined in this review. Confidence intervals are wide and the possibility of important differences existing has not been excluded.

Anticonvulsants↗
PubMed2000

Carbamazepine versus valproate monotherapy for epilepsy.

BACKGROUND: Carbamazepine and valproate are drugs of first choice for epilepsy. Despite the lack of hard evidence from individual randomized controlled trials, there is strong clinical belief that valproate is the drug of choice for generalized epilepsies and carbamazepine for partial epilepsies. OBJECTIVES: To overview the best evidence comparing carbamazepine and valproate monotherapy SEARCH STRATEGY: Our search strategy included: (a) MEDLINE 1966-99, (b) The Cochrane Library 1999 issue 4, (c) The trial register of the Cochrane Epilepsy Group (d) the pharmaceutical industry. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials comparing carbamazepine and valproate monotherapy for epilepsy. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: This was an individual patient data review. Outcome measures were time to withdrawal of allocated treatment, time to 12 month remission, and time to first seizure post randomization. Data were analysed using the stratified Logrank test with results expressed as hazard ratios (HR) (95% CI), where HR>1 indicates an event is more likely on valproate. A test for an interaction between treatment and epilepsy type (partial versus generalized) was also undertaken. MAIN RESULTS: Results Data were available for 1265 patients from five trials, representing 85% of the patients recruited into the eight trials that met our inclusion criteria. The main overall results (HR 95% CI) were: Time to treatment withdrawal 0.97 (0.79-1.18), 12 month remission 0.87 (0.74-1.02), first seizure 1.09 (0.96-1.25) suggesting no overall difference for these outcomes. The test for an interaction between treatment and epilepsy type was non significant for time to treatment withdrawal and 12 month remission, but significant for time to first seizure. The age distribution of adults classified as having a generalized epilepsy indicate that significant numbers of patients may have had their epilepsy misclassified. REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS: We have found some evidence to support the policy of using carbamazepine as the first treatment of choice in partial epilepsies, but no evidence to support the choice of valproate in generalized epilepsies, but confidence intervals are too wide to confirm equivalence. Misclassification of patients may have confounded our results, and has important implications for the design and conduct of future trials.

Adult↗